New Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe represents "hawkish" generational change - 27-Sep-06 - Generational Dynamics

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Sep-06

New Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe represents "hawkish" generational change

He's sure to infuriate the Chinese and Koreans.

On Tuesday, Shinzo Abe was elected by the Diet (Parliament) in Tokyo to succeed Junichiro Koizumi as Prime Minister. Abe is just 52 years old, and is the first PM born after World War II.

Newly elected Liberal Democratic Party President Shinzo Abe, right, and his predecessor, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi applauding <font size=-2>(Source: AP)</font>

Newly elected Liberal Democratic Party President Shinzo Abe, right, and his predecessor, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi applauding (Source: AP)

Pundits are characterizing him as possibly the most hawkish prime minister since the Second World War.

This is not surprising. I wrote an article last year explaining how generational changes are affecting Japan and China. Japanese who lived through the horrors of World War II and survived it are far more willing to compromise and contain problems; those born after the war, like America's Baby Boomer generation, are more arrogant and confrontational. That's the generation that Shinzo Abe is in.

Even more, Abe's family has a strong Japanese nationalist tradition. his grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, was a wartime cabinet minister later imprisoned as a class-A war-crimes suspect. By 1957 had become prime minister. Shinzo Abe has expressed doubts about the conventional views of Japan's aggression during World War II, and about the validity of the postwar war crimes trials.

Although Abe has pledged to improve international relations with China and Korea, his attitudes towards World War II are certain to infuriate the Chinese and Koreans.

The Chinese have lodged strong objections against former PM Junichiro Koizumi for his visits to a war shrine and for Japanese textbooks that allegedly play down Japan's role in the war.

Abe's attitudes appear to combine everything that the Chinese have objected to in one person. This is certain to make relations worse. And Abe himself has already announced plans to beef up Japan's military defense, and to amend the post-war constitution forbidding declarations of war.

All this comes at time when the people of Japan and China increasingly dislike and distrust each other, according to a new report by Pew Research.

According to the report:

"[R]oughly seven-in-ten Japanese express an unfavorable view of China and an equal number of Chinese dislike Japan. ...

Anxiety about the growing strength of China's military is nearly universal in Japan. That concern is shared with others among China's neighbors - large majorities in both Russia and India see this as a threatening trend. The Chinese, however, have a very different view: 95% say their rising military might is a good thing.

In China, much of the antipathy toward Japan is rooted in history - overwhelmingly, the Chinese believe Japan has yet to atone for its militaristic past. Eight-in-ten Chinese (81%) believe Japan has not apologized sufficiently for its military actions during the 1930s and 1940s. ...

Moreover, the Chinese and Japanese tend to associate negative characteristics with the people of the other country. In particular, both countries consider the other competitive, greedy, and arrogant. The Japanese are especially likely to say the Chinese are nationalistic and selfish, while the Chinese tend to see the Japanese as male-dominated."

As we say repeatedly on this web site, the attitudes and behaviors of one person or one group of politicians makes little difference to Generational Dynamics; what matters is the attitudes and behaviors of large masses of people, since changes almost always go along with generational changes.

Thus, this nationalist world view of Shinzo Abe alone doesn't matter much, but his election will serve as a symbol to both the Japanese and the Chinese that Japan's population is moving even farther away from the Chinese than before. (Compare this with the item below on the loathing between Palestinians and Israelis.)

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Japan and China are heading for war with 100% certainty. As the generation of people who grew up during and have personal memory of the horrors of World War II all retire or die, the younger generations will increasingly reject compromise and containment of problems, and adopt solutions involving confrontation. (27-Sep-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Sep-06 New Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe represents "hawkish" generational change

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Sep-06
New Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe represents "hawkish" generational change