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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Oct-06
India claims Pakistan government agency perpetrated the Mumbai railroad bombings

Web Log - October, 2006

India claims Pakistan government agency perpetrated the Mumbai railroad bombings

India has promised to show potentially explosive evidence to Pakistan.

On July 11, seven bombs exploded in railway stations across the city of Mumbai (Bombay), India. Over 200 people have died, with over 700 injuries.

The suspected perpetrator was a Kashmir separatist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, based in Pakistan. This insinuation angered the Pakistanis, who suggested that India should look to its own internal terrorist groups.

Indian subcontinent, showing the disputed regions of Kashmir and Jammu.

Indian subcontinent, showing the disputed regions of Kashmir and Jammu.

Now India's investigators say that they've solved the case and identified the perpetrators, and claim that they have solid proof that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency had masterminded the terrorist act.

India and Pakistan are both nuclear powers, and they almost went to war in 2002, but they drew back, thanks to a détente that Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf and India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have engineered over the last few years.

After the Mumbai bombings, Singh refused to meet again with Musharraf. However, he defrosted a little at the international meeting in Cuba a couple of weeks ago, and they shook hands.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

India has promised to turn the evidence over to Pakistan so that they can see for themselves. If it turns out that the ISI did indeed mastermind the massive bombings in Mumbai, it will put enormous pressure on Musharraf to punish the perpetrators.

Musharraf is already under enormous pressure in Washington and London for allegedly not doing enough to stop terrorism, and not doing enough to catch Osama bin Laden.

On the other hand, Musharraf is heavily criticized in Pakistan for cooperating too much with the west. There have been numerous attempts on Musharraf's life.

Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf is a major lynchpin holding the Indian subcontinent back from war. If this ISI scandal ends up seriously undermining Musharraf, or causes him to get killed or to give up his office, then the entire region will immediately become much more hostile to the West, and the separatist struggle over Kashmir will immediately become much worse. (1-Oct-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Oct-06 India claims Pakistan government agency perpetrated the Mumbai railroad bombings

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Oct-06
India claims Pakistan government agency perpetrated the Mumbai railroad bombings