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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-Oct-06
Russia's harsh sanctions on Georgia raise tensions in Caucasus

Web Log - October, 2006

Russia's harsh sanctions on Georgia raise tensions in Caucasus

Russia is preventing millions of Georgians working in Russia from sending money back to their families.

The immediate crisis began last week when Georgia arrested four officers from the Russian Embassy in Tbilisi and charged with them spying.

Georgia released the officers over the weekend, but not before infuriating the Russians.

On Tuesday, the Russian Ministry for Transport stopped all railway, marine, air and car communication with Georgia for an indefinite period.

In addition, Russia has ended all postal communication between the two countries, claiming a security risk from "dangerous content had been detected in the parcels sent to Russia from Georgia." (I'm having difficulty understanding what this is supposed to mean, since such dangerous content would presumably be a security risk to Georgia, not to Russia.)

However, the principal effect of the sanctions will be to strand thousands of Georgian guest workers in Russia, unable to send their earnings home to families. If these remittances were entirely cut off, it would have a huge economic impact on Georgia. Remittances sent home by some 1.2 million Georgians working in Russia currently amount to around $2 billion annually, around 20% of Georgia's GDP.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at a Tuesday press conference that “One can not on the one hand feed from Russia and on the other hand humiliate Russia. The Georgian authorities should understand this."

He added: "But we can not tolerate the fact that illegal money flows, which feeds the regime that is militarizing itself for its own goals and that has nothing in common with the needs of the Georgian people."

One extremist member of the Russian Duma says that war against Georgia is the only solution. Vladimir Zhirinovsky, chairman of the ultra-nationalist Liberal-Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), said, "We should follow the example set by the U.S. and clamp down on Georgia, just as the Americans did with Iraq, depose the local Saddam Hussein, throw all the allies of Saakashvili into FSB prison cells, and then call a free democratic election in Georgia." He said that otherwise, "the U.S. will make Georgia a NATO-member and send Turkish troops into the country. If we are to win we must be ahead of the Americans."

Troubled areas in Caucasus region - including Dagestan, North Ossetia and Chechnya in Russia, and breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia

Troubled areas in Caucasus region - including Dagestan, North Ossetia and Chechnya in Russia, and breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia

Historically, the Caucasus mountain region, which controls many valuable land routes connecting the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea, has been the battlefield for many crisis wars between the Orthodox and Muslim civilizations, and between different ethnic groups of the same or different religions for many centuries. A war between Russian and Islamist forces has been going on in Chechnya since 1994. The Caucasus and the Palestine regions are probably the two most volatile regions of the world.

Georgia itself has been the object of rivalry between Russia, Turkey and Iran (Persia) for many centuries. Russia took control in 1921, but Georgia gained independence in 1992 following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Former Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze became Georgia's leader, but was overthrown by the "Rose Revolution" in 2003, resulting in the Presidency of Mikheil Saakashvili, someone who has not been to Russia's liking. Many Georgians accuse Russia of imperialism, while Russia criticises Georgia of nationalism and pursuing an anti-Russian foreign policy.

The current crisis comes during a long period of increasing tensions between Georgia and Russia over the two of Georgia's breakaway regions: Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Both regions have ethnic Russian populations that are claiming to be part of Russia rather than Georgia.

Tensions heightened in July when Georgia sent troops into Abkhazia to regain control from secessionist forces. A glance at the map above shows how strategically important Abkhazia is to commerce, situated on the Black Sea. In response, Russia has been conducting naval maneuvers in the Black Sea, near major Georgian sea ports.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Caucasus is the most dangerous region of the world, along with Palestine, since the last crisis wars in some areas ended over 70 years ago.

The arrest of the four officers last week caught Russia by surprise, and drew the sharp sanctions that have been imposed. Georgia backed off quickly by returning the officers, but Russia decided to escalate the crisis again anyway.

Most people don't care much when you're talking about spies and such, since it doesn't affect their lives. But when do something that affects a million people and prevents them from sending money to their families, then large masses of people really take notice, and look for someone to blame.

My little conflict risk graphic shows the Caucasus at a yellow "medium risk" level, since nothing has happened recently that appeared likely to lead to a major war within six months. However, that could change quickly if the current confrontation continues to escalate. (4-Oct-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-Oct-06 Russia's harsh sanctions on Georgia raise tensions in Caucasus

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-Oct-06
Russia's harsh sanctions on Georgia raise tensions in Caucasus