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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Oct-06
Russian President Putin continues to turn the screws on Georgia

Web Log - October, 2006

Russian President Putin continues to turn the screws on Georgia

Russia closes the border, forbids money transfers, and evacuates Russians from Tbilisi.

Russia's harsh sanctions didn't just begin last week, with the arrest of Russian officers in the Russian embassy in the Georgia's capital, Tbilisi, on charges of espionage.

Earlier this year, Russia banned imports of Georgian wine, the country's most lucrative export.

But when the officers were arrested, the steely Putin really started turning the screws. The border between Russia and Georgia is effectively closed, with all transportation links cut. The Russian postal service will no longer permit the million plus Georgian guest workers in Russia to send money back to the families in Georgia.

In the latest twist, Russia has ordered a crackdown on Georgian-owned businesses, closing restaurants, casinos and hotels in Russia that are owned by Georgians.

"We have been witnessing unbelievable militarisation of Georgia," said the official spokesman of Russian President Vladimir Putin. "We have some facts that money being sent to Georgia is being used for that purpose. ... Our interior ministry has pointed out that these restaurants and casinos were under the control of illegal groups of Georgian origin."

Russia is evacuating citizens from Georgia. Georgian children attending Russian schools in Georgia will no longer be permitted to do so. Some news reports indicate that Russia's energy giant Gazprom may be planning to double gas prices to Georgia next year.

Troubled areas in Caucasus region - including Dagestan, North Ossetia and Chechnya in Russia, and breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia

Troubled areas in Caucasus region - including Dagestan, North Ossetia and Chechnya in Russia, and breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia

Russia is holding naval exercises in the Black Sea, near Georgian ports. Disputed breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have sided with Russia against Georgia, and are blocking Georgia's cargo shipments.

The principal European organization charged with providing mediation in such situations is the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The OSCE, with cooperation from Washington, has been involved in this dispute from the beginning. It was OSCE representatives who convinced Georgian officials to return the arrested Embassy officers back to Russia last weekend.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

The OSCE had hoped that the return of the officers would end the crisis, but Russia has continued to escalate the crisis, and there's international concern that the situation may spiral out of control into war.

My little risk conflict graphic shows the Caucasus region at "yellow - medium risk," level 2. With the current situation escalating, I would have to call this a "2.5" today. We'll watch this situation over the next few days to see whether it continues to escalate or settles down. If it escalates, we'll change the risk level to "red - high risk," level 3.

In other news, the violence between Palestinian factions in Gaza continues to escalate. The situation has been deteriorating almost continuously since the death of Yasser Arafat, and the possibility of Palestinian civil war seems more likely every day. (6-Oct-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Oct-06 Russian President Putin continues to turn the screws on Georgia

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Oct-06
Russian President Putin continues to turn the screws on Georgia