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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Oct-06
North Korea announces a nuclear weapon test.

Web Log - October, 2006

North Korea announces a nuclear weapon test.

Has Pyongyang passed the point of no return?

North Korea's state news agency announced that it has carried out its first ever test of a nuclear weapon.

In recent days, pretty much every country in the region, including China, has joined America in telling North Korea that such a test is not acceptable.

Warnings to North Korea have been particularly stark in the last few days.

US Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill has gone so far as to say that North Korea "can have a future, or it can have these weapons. It cannot have both".

Significantly, even China has expressed severe displeasure at North Korea's plans, and North Korean diplomatic sources claim that these statements have angered North Korean generals, who wanted to teach Beijing a lesson, according to an analysis by Russian newspaper Kommersant.

Analysts on Sunday evening were discussing the following issues:

That Japan will re-arm and develop its own nuclear weapons.

That South Korea will re-arm and develop its own nuclear weapons.

That North Korea will sell nuclear weapons technology to other countries.

That Iran will be further emboldened to develop its own nuclear weapons. North Korea has already sold long-range missile technology to Iran.

Most of the analysts are talking in terms of "the U.S. has a problem," but I consider the conflict with China to be much more significant than the conflict with the United States.

China, in my opinion, is trying to align with Iran, Pakistan and North Korea to gain hegemony over Asia and the Pacific. A disobedient North Korea is going to suffer some kind of sanction from China.

Indeed, positions in Washington, Tokyo, Europe and the United Nations have hardened so much in recent days and weeks that it's hard to see how it's possible to avoid severe international sactions against North Korea, without the U.N. and the West looking like a complete bunch of boobs.

At this point, there's no talk of any military response against North Korea.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

With regard to my little risk conflict graphic, the problem as the one I described for the Caucasus last week. The North Korea situation is shown at "yellow - medium risk," level 2. The current situation raises it to a 2.5. We'll have to watch and see whether the situation settles down, or whether it escalates to risk level to "red - high risk," level 3.

The situation between Russia and Georgia, incidentally, has not escalated further over the weekend, so things may be settling down there. (9-Oct-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Oct-06 North Korea announces a nuclear weapon test.

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Oct-06
North Korea announces a nuclear weapon test.