	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Oct-06
Extremely bitter midterm elections appear to head for overwhelming Democratic victory

Web Log - October, 2006

Extremely bitter midterm elections appear to head for overwhelming Democratic victory

It now appears likely that Democrats will control the House and may control the Senate, after the November 7, 2006, elections.

Expected election results as of Sunday, Oct 15, 2006

Expected election results as of Sunday, Oct 15, 2006

It won't much difference in terms of policy, since America has almost no policy alternatives today. And it won't make much difference in terms of rhetoric, since both Democrats and Republicans are saying any stupid thing that comes into their minds.

What is of interest in extreme bitterness and acrimony accompanying the campaign. As I've said several times before on this web site, when a country enters a "generational crisis" period, the great mass of people become increasingly confrontational and less willing to compromise. During America's last generational crisis period, in the 1930s, the acrimony directed against President Franklin Roosevelt was enormous. He was accused of one thing after another, including treason. Just google the phrase "fdr scandal" to see what happened. Republicans were extremely critical of Roosevelt's handling of WW II. In America's previous generational crisis period, Democrats were very acrimonious about President Lincoln's pursuit of the war, and as late as 1864, the Democratic platform called for peace negotiations with the South, to end the war as quickly as possible.

So what's happening today is nothing new. William Strauss and Neil Howe, the founders of generational theory, found that the same kind of acrimony in all the Anglo-American crisis periods they analyzed, as described in their 1997 book, The Fourth Turning.

Let's briefly address some of the political arguments we're hearing today:

Who's to blame for the North Koreans having a nuclear weapon -- the Republicans or the Democrats?
Can you imagine a stupider question? But that's all the politicians have been talking about. Kim Jong-il is determined to get nuclear weapons and to make money by selling the weapons to other countries. This has been North Korea's policy since at least the early 1990s. President Clinton tried to stop them using an "appeasement" strategy -- which was perfectly OK and appropriate for America's generational unraveling era in the 1990s -- and the North Koreans simply cheated on it. President Bush has been using a more confrontational approach -- which is perfectly OK and appropriate for America's current generational crisis era, and Kim simply continued what he was doing.
Politically, Kim follows the same policy as Iran and al-Qaeda: Just blame everything on America, and our morons in the media seem to just eat that up.
We saw this on Saturday, after the United Nations Security Council unanimously voted to sanction North Korea.

North Korean ambassador Pak Gil Yon reading a very bitter response to Security Council sanctions. (Source: CNN)

In response to the unanimous vote, the North Korean ambassador read a very bitter and angry statement directed entirely at the United States. He said that the Security Council was "gangster-like," manipulated by the U.S. He said, "If it weren't for the United States, we wouldn't be developing nuclear weapons," and added, "If the U.S. increases pressure on [North Korea] persistently, then [North Korea] will continue to take countermeasures, considering it a declaration of war."
But it really makes no difference what we do: Kim is going to develop nuclear weapons, sell them and use them, and nothing but war will stop them.

"Will Iraq become peaceful if America pulls its troops out?"
This week we had a British group from the Lancet publication claim, based on a polling sample of 1800 people that 655,000 Iraqis have died as a result of the war. Publication of this study was, according to an interview with one of the authors that I saw on TV, sped up to get it out before the American elections.
I certainly can't judge whether this poll-based result is correct, or the official numbers of 30-50,000 are correct, but I will say that I believe almost nothing that any politically-oriented group says today.
However, what I can't understand is why the anti-American politicians and press are so gleeful about this number. If the high number is true, it means that the tide of violence throughout the Mideast is much higher than anyone suspected, and that the Mideast war is already well in progress. If government estimates in Iraq are off by 1000%, then so are estimates in Afghanistan, the Gaza strip, and other Mideast nations.
This UK poll came in the same week that British military chief Gen. Richard Dannatt said that British troops should "get ourselves out sometime soon because our presence exacerbates the security problems."
It's really hard for me to understand how so many people can view the Afghanistan war as a "good" war, and the Iraq war as a "bad" war, and then claim that Islamist terrorist groups use the Iraq war, but not the Afghan war, as a recruiting tool. It's a dizzying argument, put forth by people who have given up all their professional credibility and self-respect to polemical political arguments.
The violence in the Mideast has been growing steadily for three decades. The American war with Iraq began in 1991, and substantially escalated in 1999 with the bombing of no-fly zones during the Clinton administration. The war escalated to a ground war in 2003, but it didn't start in 2003. Violence in Palestine, Afghanistan and the Arabian peninsula has also been increasing steadily for decades.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the entire Mideast is headed for a major regional war, with components of Arabs versus Jews and Sunnis versus Shiites. It doesn't really matter what we do to try to stop it; we can't stop it any more than we could stop a tsunami.
As I've said several times in the past, my expectation is that we will NOT withdraw from Iraq until the general "clash of civilizations" world war begins in earnest, and then we'll withdraw the troops to fight in other theatres.

This is an extremely dangerous time for our country, and we need to be preparing for what's coming, instead of bickering over nonsense.

From a policy point of view, it really doesn't make much difference which party is in control of Congress, but in one sense I'm relieved that the Democrats will be taking over. At that point they may have to take some responsibility for getting things done, rather than just acrimonious criticisms of people who are trying to get things done. Perhaps I'm just fooling myself in the hope that the level of acrimony will come down, but for the time being I'd prefer to hold onto that hope, even though it may mean that I too am in a "state of denial." (15-Oct-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Oct-06 Extremely bitter midterm elections appear to head for overwhelming Democratic victory

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Oct-06
Extremely bitter midterm elections appear to head for overwhelming Democratic victory