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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Oct-06
Australian Govt. warns citizens to avoid Sri Lanka

Web Log - October, 2006

Australian Govt. warns citizens to avoid Sri Lanka

The war between Tamil Tiger rebels and Sri Lanka government continues to escalate, and has spread into formerly "safe" regions containing tourist attractions.

Areas of conflict in Sri Lanka <font size=-2>(Source: The Economist)</font>

Areas of conflict in Sri Lanka (Source: The Economist)

On Wednesday, Tamil Tigers posing as fisherman blew up two boats in a suicide attack on a naval base Wednesday in the historic resort town of Galle, killing at least one sailor.

The most spectacular terrorist attack occurred on Monday. A military convoy of buses carrying sailors on leave had stopped briefly by the side of the road in a supposed safe town of Habarana. A suicide bomber rammed an explosives-packed truck into the buses, with at least 150 casualties.

In retaliation, government jets bombed a rebel camp on Monday, evidently killing two young girls.

Australia's Dept. of Foreign Affairs and Trade has issued a travel advisory, saying, "We strongly advise you not to travel to Sri Lanka at this time because of the deteriorating security situation and the high risk of further terrorist attacks."

The U.S. State Department says, "there should be an immediate cessation of violence. It is more important to talk now than ever as Sri Lanka is in danger of going to all-out war."

Indian subcontinent, with the island of Sri Lanka off the southern tip of India.

Indian subcontinent, with the island of Sri Lanka off the southern tip of India.

As I keep struggling to figure out exactly what's going on in the Iraq situation, the Sri Lanka situation provides a contemporary example to use as a contrast (in addition to the Darfur war and the recent war in Lebanon).

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There are many differences. Sri Lanka is in a generational crisis era, and so is quite susceptible to a crisis civil war, and that appears to be happening.

As I described a couple of months ago, Sri Lanka has had intermittent violence, including a brief non-crisis civil war in the 1980s, between two ethnic groups: The Sinhalese, who run the government, and Tamils (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam or LTTE), who are demanding a separate state of their own in the north. A peace agreement was signed in 2002, but that's completely fallen apart now.

The level of violence, including the massacring of civilians, has been increasing steadily this year. There's no ambiguity in Sri Lanka, as there is in Iraq, about whether the massacring is being done by outsiders. Both the Sinhalese government forces and the Tamil rebels are clearly Sri Lankans, and the increasing massacring of civilians points to a building crisis civil war.

Of course, there's a "peace process" going on. Norwegian mediators are 'confident' that peace can be restored, but this I have to see. And U.S. State Dept. envoy Richard Boucher is also visiting Sri Lanka.

As these various conflicts continue -- in Sri Lanka, Iraq and Darfur -- we'll continue to try to compare and contrast them, as we did with the war in Lebanon, to make sense out of what's really going on in each of them. (20-Oct-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Oct-06 Australian Govt. warns citizens to avoid Sri Lanka

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Oct-06
Australian Govt. warns citizens to avoid Sri Lanka