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	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Oct-06
Somalia and Ethiopia close to full-scale war, according to leaked UN report

Web Log - October, 2006

Somalia and Ethiopia close to full-scale war, according to leaked UN report

Thousands of refugees are fleeing Ethiopia into Kenya to escape war

Horn of Africa

Horn of Africa

There are two sides within Somalia itself:

The internationally recognized Transitional Federal Government (TFG), formed in 2000 as a confederation of the warlords who rule the various ethnic groups that have existed for centuries and had fought each other frequently;

The Islamic Courts Union (ICU), a radical Islamist group that captured Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, on June 6, and has been increasing in power and control ever since.

The ICU has been gaining ground on the TFG for several months, despite TFG pleas for international assistance, especially from the United States.

And now, arch-enemies Ethiopia and Eritrea are getting into the act. According to a leaked confidential UN report on Somalia, Somalia, with support from Eritrea, is close to all-out war with Ethiopia, a US ally.

The confidential report says that Ethiopia, Uganda and Yemen are supporting the TFG, while Iran, Libya, Saudi Arabia and Gulf states are supporting the ICU.

There are already some 300,000 Somalian refugees in camps in Kenya, and the new threats are adding thousands more. There have been polio outbreaks in Somalia in the last few years, and there's a great fear that polio will spread through the densely packed refugee camp in Kenya.

Africa, with Ivory Coast and Darfur highlighted

Africa, with Ivory Coast and Darfur highlighted

Somalia has taken on increasing international strategic value since 9/11, since it's believed that al-Qaeda has been using the country for training camps for terrorists. In fact, al-Qaeda training in Somalia was linked to last year's London subway bombings. Previously, al-Qaeda links are considered likely for the the 1998 bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania and the 2002 attacks on Israeli tourists in Kenya.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Islamist control of Somalia, if it continues to take hold, would have major strategic significance in the coming "clash of civilizations" world war. Somalia is strategically located a short boat ride from the Arabian peninsula, and could be used as a base of operations against Israel or oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.

Within Africa itself, the entire northern tier of African countries -- those just below the Sahara Desert -- from Côte d'Ivoire to Sudan to Somalia -- are either in a crisis war or approaching one. The countries of southern Africa are on a different generational timeline, launched by the huge Mfecane war of the early 1800s, had their most recent crisis wars in the 1960s. But the northern African countries are on the World War II generational timeline, and have fault lines either between Muslims and Christians or between Arabs and indigenous Africans, or between different ethnic groups, and all are headed for full-scale war within the next decade. (28-Oct-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Oct-06 Somalia and Ethiopia close to full-scale war, according to leaked UN report

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Oct-06
Somalia and Ethiopia close to full-scale war, according to leaked UN report