	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Nov-06
Hard-right politician Avigdor Lieberman joins Israeli cabinet

Web Log - November, 2006

Hard-right politician Avigdor Lieberman joins Israeli cabinet

Like the Palestinians, the Israelis are daily becoming increasingly ungovernable.

When I wrote about the Israeli election in April, I remarked that a huge shock was the 11-seat third place win of the Yisrael Beiteinu party headed by Avigdor Lieberman. Lieberman is considered a racist because of a specific proposal he has: Give up some portions of Israel occupied mostly by Arabs back to the Palestinians, in exchange for other Palestinian lands occupied mostly by Jews.

Lieberman's objective is to keep Israel as purely Jewish as possible, with as few Arabs as possible. The Beiteinu party is considered to be far right and racist because of this proposal, and so its capture of 11 Knesset seats after never winning even one seat before indicates a sharp turn of the Israeli electorate to the right.

The April election reflected a sharp change in direction anyway. I call it a "bunker mentality" election, because it the voters seemed to make it clear that they wanted to have close themselves behind their security fence and have as little to do with the Palestinians as possible. The centerpiece was a plan by the new Prime Minister Ehud Olmert called "convergence" or "consolidation." Under this plan, all West Bank Jewish settlements would be relocated close to Jerusalem, behind the security fence, and the Palestinians could do what they want in the West Bank, as they could in Gaza.

Then came the summer and the Lebanon War. Thousands of Hizbollah missiles poured into Israel from Lebanon, joining a few Hamas missiles flying over the security fence from Gaza. It became clear that the security fence offered little or no protection. The "convergence" plan has been abandoned, and Israelis are living in increasing anxiety and fear. The appointment of Lieberman to head Israel's Ministry of Strategic Threats reflects that increased anxiety, and signals an increased readiness to go to war, if necessary.

Much commentary on Lieberman's appointment has been scathing. Arab commentator Nicola Nasser says that the Lieberman appointment "threatens to destabilize the already explosive regional situation and preempts any credible prospects for initiating a new peace process if not reviving the old road map-based process."

An editorial in the left-leaning Israeli paper Haaretz, calls it "a cynical move with few parallels in Israeli politics." It echoed the Arab commentary by saying, "Lieberman's lack of restraint and his unbridled tongue, comparable only to those of Iran's president, are liable to bring disaster down upon the entire region threatens to destabilize the already explosive regional situation and preempts any credible prospects for initiating a new peace process if not reviving the old road map-based process threatens to destabilize the already explosive regional situation and preempts any credible prospects for initiating a new peace process if not reviving the old road map-based process."

The comparison to Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is quite common, and shows that the Palestinians may feel as threatened by Lieberman as the Israelis do by Ahmadinejad.

The world has gone through a long period of relative stability, but there's a big irony about stability: Too much stability is destabilizing. If there's too much stability for too long, then people, especially younger people, decide that it's safe to take greater and greater risks. And every time a government takes an additional risk, the world becomes less stable again.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is especially true at this time, 61 years after the end of WW II, and 57 years after the end of the genocidal war between Arabs and Jews. At this time, the generations of people who lived through those wars are almost all gone. The people in charge now (like America's Baby Boomer generation) were born after the war, and have few skills other than arguing other people. That's why America's politics are in gridlock, and why Israel's politics is approaching gridlock.

The Palestinians are in the worst shape, if that's possible. According to a commentary by an Arab writer,

"Civil war in Palestine looks in danger of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Infighting between Fatah and Hamas is no longer confined to mutual recriminations and staged demonstrations but has escalated into street fighting with no-holds-barred. And as attempts to peacefully resolve outstanding problems between the two diametrically opposed Palestinian factions fail extremists on both sides have come to the fore.

Unlike previous fights between Hamas and Fatah, which erupted spontaneously and were rapidly contained, this time round premeditation and deliberate incitement characterise the escalating conflict."

The same process that I've written about several times is now occurring in both Israel and Palestine. I've explained this in terms of chaotic "attractors" (from Chaos Theory). Day to day political events are chaotic events that fall like snowflakes in random ways. But just as millions of snowflakes get "attracted" to large snow drifts, millions of individual political events get attracted to the impending Mideast war, since war is a "chaotic attractor" at this time, 57 years after the end of the 1940s genocidal war between Arabs and Jews.

The theoretical concept of "attractor" comes true on a day to day basis. It's been happening every day since Yasser Arafat died, and has evidently accelerated ever since Ariel Sharon became incapacitated.

Looking at the day to day political events as they've occurred in the last year and a half, you can pick almost any day and look at the headlines for that day, and you'll see that it most likely moves the Mideast in the direction of war. There are a few exceptions of course, like the period when Mahmoud Abbas was elected and took office, and hopes were raised at that time.

But those brief intervals are like a heat wave in New York City in November -- just because the weather gets warm for a few days doesn't mean that winter isn't coming. Once the heat wave is over, the weather starts getting much colder again. Similarly, there are brief periods when things seem to get better, but they pass quickly, and then political events move back towards war.

That what "attractor" means in Chaos Theory. It doesn't mean that every political event brings the Mideast closer to war; it means that political events float around in all directions, at random, but most of them, not necessarily all of them, are attracted to Mideast war.

That's really the only way to interpret the addition of Avigdor Lieberman. Even if he's not the troublemaker that people claim, he's still a symbol that infuriates the Palestinians. (1-Nov-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Nov-06 Hard-right politician Avigdor Lieberman joins Israeli cabinet

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Nov-06
Hard-right politician Avigdor Lieberman joins Israeli cabinet