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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Nov-06
MI5 chief: U.K. is flooded with Islamic terrorists and sympathizers

Web Log - November, 2006

MI5 chief: U.K. is flooded with Islamic terrorists and sympathizers

Over 100,000 young British Muslims call the 7/7 London subway bombings "justifiable," according to a speech last week by Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, the Director-General of MI5, Britain's equivalent of the CIA.

Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, the MI5 Director-General

Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, the MI5 Director-General

Introducing herself "not as a politician, nor as a pundit, but as someone who has been an intelligence professional for 32 years," Dame Eliza said that hundreds of young British Muslims are being radicalised, groomed and set on a path to mass murder.

The following are extracts from the speech she gave last week:

"What I can say is that today, my officers and the police are working to contend with some 200 groupings or networks, totalling over 1600 identified individuals (and there will be many we don't know) who are actively engaged in plotting, or facilitating, terrorist acts here and overseas."

"The extremists are motivated by a sense of grievance and injustice driven by their interpretation of the history between the West and the Muslim world. This view is shared, in some degree, by a far wider constituency. If the opinion polls conducted in the UK since July 2005 are only broadly accurate, over 100,000 of our citizens consider that the July 2005 attacks in London were justified."
[Dame Eliza is referring to the terrorist bombings on the London subway system on July 7, 2005. - JX]

"What we see at the extreme end of the spectrum are resilient networks, some directed from Al-Qaida in Pakistan, some more loosely inspired by it, planning attacks including mass casualty suicide attacks in the UK. Today we see the use of home-made improvised explosive devices; tomorrow's threat may include the use of chemicals, bacteriological agents, radioactive materials and even nuclear technology. More and more people are moving from passive sympathy towards active terrorism through being radicalised or indoctrinated by friends, families, in organised training events here and overseas, by images on television, through chat rooms and websites on the Internet."

"The propaganda machine is sophisticated and Al-Qaida itself says that 50% of its war is conducted through the media. In Iraq, attacks are regularly videoed and the footage downloaded onto the internet within 30 minutes. Virtual media teams then edit the result, translate it into English and many other languages, and package it for a worldwide audience."

"And, chillingly, we see the results here. Young teenagers are being groomed to be suicide bombers. We are aware of numerous plots to kill people and to damage our economy. What do I mean by numerous? Five? Ten? No, nearer....... thirty that we know of. These plots often have links back to Al-Qaida in Pakistan and through those links Al-Qaida gives guidance and training to its largely British foot soldiers here on an extensive and growing scale. And it is not just the UK of course. Other countries also face a new terrorist threat: from Spain to France to Canada and Germany."

"There has been much speculation about what motivates young men and women to carry out acts of terrorism in the UK. ... Al-Qaida has developed an ideology which claims that Islam is under attack, and needs to be defended. This is a powerful narrative that weaves together conflicts from across the globe, presenting the West's response to varied and complex issues, from long-standing disputes such as Israel/Palestine and Kashmir to more recent events as evidence of an across-the-board determination to undermine and humiliate Islam worldwide. Afghanistan, the Balkans, Chechnya, Iraq, Israel/Palestine, Kashmir and Lebanon are regularly cited by those who advocate terrorist violence as illustrating what they allege is Western hostility to Islam."

"The video wills of British suicide bombers make it clear that they are motivated by:
- perceived worldwide and long-standing injustices against Muslims;
- an extreme and minority interpretation of Islam promoted by some preachers and people of influence;
- their interpretation as anti-Muslim of UK foreign policy, in particular the UK's involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Killing oneself and others in response is an attractive option for some citizens of this country and others around the world."

"That threat is serious, is growing and will, I believe, be with us for a generation. It is a sustained campaign, not a series of isolated incidents. It aims to wear down our will to resist."

With regard to Dame Eliza's points on the motivations of the terrorists, Generational Dynamics explains a lot of the motivations of suicide bombers.

Generational Dynamics cannot predict the attitudes and behaviors of any individual, since each individual is free to do what he or she wants. But Generational Dynamics can and does predict much about the attitudes and behaviors of generations of people.

We're seeing that suicide bombers only come from societies that have entered generational crisis periods, and not before. This indicates that the generational crisis period changes society so that it makes the creation of suicide bombers possible. (It's remarkable that with so many suicide bombings going on in Iraq, almost none of the actual suicide bombers are Iraqis.)

Further findings, obtained by combining Generational Dynamics research with Robert Pape's study of suicide bombers, published in the book Dying to Win, we find that suicide bombers justify their terrorist acts as "altruistic suicide." Pape found that suicide bombers most likely come from countries occupied by another country, and his research shows that they come overwhelming from countries that have passed through a generational crisis era without having a crisis war. In these countries, the parents have accepted the occupation, albeit bitterly and reluctantly. But their impatient children take it upon themselves to free their parents' generation from this occupation by this unique form of altruistic suicide.

These studies have led to a "Hero / Parent / Prophet" generational model that explains the motivation and development of terrorist acts and crisis wars that are led by a young generation of "Heroes":

There's a group of "Prophets" that teenagers listen to; these are usually (but not always) elders, and they might be government officials, religious clerics, or even media personalities (like Jon Stewart of Comedy Central's Daily Show). Each of these prophets presents a different political philosophy to teenagers. Groups of teens select from among these alternative Prophet political philosophies in the same way that they might select a rock star or fashion item. Rebellious groups select political philosophies that provide for action against society, and the most extreme of these rebellious groups select political philosophies that call for terrorist acts and suicide bombings. These rebellious teen groups become "Heroes" by altruistic suicide (killing themselves for the good of the greater community).

Do their parents have any influence? Yes, but in an unexpected manner: In a formula described by Hannah Arendt, they become Heroes by adopting "the attitudes and convictions of the bourgeoisie, cleansed of hypocrisy." In Arendt's formulation, the parents are the bourgeoisie with the message: "We hate the occupiers, but we have to get along with them and do business with them." Their "Hero" children cleanse this message of hypocrisy, changing it to: "We hate the occupiers, and we must take action to correct the situation." Depending on the circumstances, the action can be in the form of riots and demonstrations, terrorist acts and suicide bombings, or full-scale war.

Based on Dame Eliza's speech, and on other information that's been published since the July 7, 2005, London subway bombings, the "Prophets" that the young generation of British Muslims have selected are the radical clerics running the madrassas in Pakistan. Furthermore, the "success" of the 7/7 subway bombings has served to popularize the clerics even more.

It's important to understand that the selection of radical Pakistani prophets is an emotional decision, a form of mass hysteria not unlike young girls screaming their love for the Beatles or another pop star. There is now a very strong emotional link between young British Muslims and these Pakistani radicals. The young Muslims don't listen to anyone else, just as many Americans and Britons don't listen to George Bush or Tony Blair. It's only the message of the Pakistani radicals that they hear or want to hear.

That's why radical Islamic attitudes are spreading so quickly through the UK population. Dame Eliza says that the number of terrorist plots is constantly growing, and that over 100,000 British citizens now consider the 7/7 subway bombings to be "justified."

As I frequently say on this site, I'm always looking for massive changes in behavior and attitude in any country, because that almost always signals a major generational change. That's the case in Britain, where the new generation of young "Hero" Muslims is massively adopting a radical Islamist view.

Question: What can be done to stop this trend? Answer: It can't be stopped. I'll use the same rhetoric that I use to explain why Darfur's genocidal crisis war cannot be stopped: A generational crisis war cannot be stopped any more than a tsunami can be stopped.

Similarly, this shift in attitudes and behaviors of young British Muslims favoring terrorist acts and suicide bombings in Britain and other places is a massive generational change that cannot be stopped any more than a tsunami can be stopped. All we can do is see that the tsunami is coming, and prepare for it.

More and more today, I tell people: Treasure the time you have left, and use it to prepare yourself, your family, your community and your nation. Dame Eliza's speech indicates that there may not be much time left. (13-Nov-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Nov-06 MI5 chief: U.K. is flooded with Islamic terrorists and sympathizers

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Nov-06
MI5 chief: U.K. is flooded with Islamic terrorists and sympathizers