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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Nov-06
Americans give thanks as desperation sinks in

Web Log - November, 2006

Americans give thanks as desperation sinks in

The Armed Forces are stretched to the limit and, as Kofi Annan says, we're "trapped in Iraq."

A new generation, a young generation of voters made itself felt in the recent election. This generation is sometimes called the "Millennials" or "Generation Y" (its final name won't be assigned until after the war).

The Millennials voted for "change" and for a "solution to the Iraq problem" in the recent election. But now there's a growing feeling of desperation as Americans realize that there is no solution.

U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan put it this way in a press conference on Tuesday:

"On the question of the military presence, obviously it is a difficult issue. The US in a way is trapped in Iraq, trapped in the sense that it cannot stay and it cannot leave. There are those who maintain that its presence is a problem, and there are those who say that if they leave precipitously, the situation would get worse, and that they should stay on to help calm and stabilize the situation before they leave. I think the US obviously will have to think through this very, very carefully, but the timing of its departure will have to be optimal in the sense that it should not lead to further deterioration of the situation but try and get it into a level that when it leaves, when it withdraws, the Iraqis themselves will be able to continue to maintain a situation that would ensure a reasonable secure environment."

The Pentagon, in a leaked secret report, is planning for three possible options, dubbed "Go Big," "Go Long" and "Go Home."

The first option, "Go Big," calls for a big increase in American troop presence to crush the insurgency as quickly as possible.

Americans are now beginning to realize that we couldn't do it that way even if we wanted to: The armed forces are already stretched too thin, and the soldiers and marines necessary for that option are simply not available.

The third option, "Go Home," is being recommended by the so-called "anti-war Democrats," but it's being rejected by the mainstream everywhere I can see. There's never been much of an "antiwar" movement over the Iraq war, and I don't expect one to start now.

The leaves the second option: "Go Long." The word "Long" means we'll be there for a long time. There'll be some changes, of course -- focusing more on training Iraqis to be better soldiers -- but basically this policy will be perceived as a continuation of the existing policy.

Sooooo, what to do? We've gotten so desperate that we're consider negotiations with Iran and Syria to get their help. Tony Blair has called for some sort of negotiations, and Henry Kissinger is advocating an extensive negotiation program, but only after we figure out a way to avoid negotiating from weakness.

Of course there's no way to negotiate with Iran and Syria over Iraq except from a position of weakness. We want THEIR help in saving us from being "trapped in Iraq"? We're so desperate that they must be screaming with laughter in their private government conferences. I'm surprised we haven't heard any sarcastic remarks from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad yet.

Oh wait ... Iran has already beaten us to the punch. Iraq and Iran have restored diplomatic relations, and Iran is holding a "Iraq summit meeting" this weekend. We'll be hearing some comments from Ahmadinejad soon, I'm sure.

Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese join (anti-Syrian, pro-government) funeral procession in downtown Beirut on Thursday. <font size=-2>(Source: Spiegel)</font>

Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese join (anti-Syrian, pro-government) funeral procession in downtown Beirut on Thursday. (Source: Spiegel)

The Mideast is changing very rapidly right now. The rift between pro- and anti-Syrian forces in Lebanon is deepening, following Tuesday's assassination of cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel. Jihadists are furious that today's planned pro-Hizbollah demonstrations had to be postponed, in favor of a huge funeral procession consisting of hundreds of thousands of mostly pro-government mourners.

The war in Gaza is still escalating. Israel continues to bomb Palestinian homes suspected of being weapons caches, in order to prevent Palestinian missiles from being launched into Israeli cities. But now the Palestinians are using "human shields" to protect the homes. More worrisome is that the border between Gaza and Egypt has become considerably more pourous in the last few months, permitting more sophisticated weapons, including more sophisticated missiles, to enter Gaza. And fighting between Palestinian factions (Hamas and Fatah) is continuing.

The Israelis are feeling even more desperate than Americans do. In April, the Israeli voters voted, essentially, to hide behind their security wall and just shut the Palestinians out. Then came thousands of Hizbollah missiles in the summer war, and the continuing stream of missiles from Gaza. And now Iran is becoming a regional leader, and Iran's President has vowed to wipe Israel off the map.

Here in America (as in Israel and Palestine), the new generation of young voters is driving the changes that we're seeing. They voted for "change" and for a "solution to the Iraq problem" in November, and they're not getting it. The cast of politicians may have changed, but we're still "trapped in Iraq." And the war in Afghanistan is becoming considerably more dangerous, with a resurgence of the Taliban in the south.

Americans are feeling desperate, but it hasn't yet reached the point where they realize how bad things are. They still see Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Gaza as separate, distinct issues, with little crossover, and with "trapped in Iraq" being our only real problem. What most Americans, including most politicians in Washington, don't understand the rising tide of violence in each country is part of the same ocean of violence that's headed for the region.

As America heads for a "clash of civilizations" world war, Thanksgiving is a good day to remember: Treasure the time you have left, and use it to prepare yourself, your family, your community and your nation. (23-Nov-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Nov-06 Americans give thanks as desperation sinks in

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Nov-06
Americans give thanks as desperation sinks in