	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Nov-06
Israel and Palestinians agree to a cease-fire in Gaza Strip

Web Log - November, 2006

Israel and Palestinians agree to a cease-fire in Gaza Strip

Is it a ploy?

The Gaza Strip cease-fire agreement will go into effect at 6 am Sunday (local time), or 11 pm Saturday evening ET.

Abbas spokesman Nabil Abu Rudainah announcing the peace agreement. <font size=-2>(Source: CNN)</font>

Abbas spokesman Nabil Abu Rudainah announcing the peace agreement. (Source: CNN)

Abbas spokesman Nabil Abu Rdeneh (or Rudainah) said from Gaza City that a truce reached in Egypt in February 2005 would be revived. "There is a signed agreement between the president and [Hamas] Prime Minister (Ismail) Haniyeh and all the Palestinian factions to resort to the agreement of the factions in Cairo in 2005, including ceasing all the military activity from Gaza, starting from Sunday morning. The Israeli prime minister has agreed, and it is going to start tomorrow morning."

Israeli intelligence sources believe that the peace treaty is a Hamas ploy to give them time to prepare for the next war. Indeed, it appears that new weapons are pouring into Gaza through the porous border with Egypt.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this peace treaty doesn't change the prediction that the Mideast is heading for a major crisis war between Arabs and Jews that will engulf the entire region.

Actually, it's fairly common for two sides to sign a peace treaty in the lead-up to a crisis war. There may be years of low-level violence as long as the leaders on both sides were survivors of the previous crisis war. But when those people go (retire or die), and the new leaders are from the generation born after the previous crisis war, then it becomes clearer to everyone that the low-level violence might now spiral out of control into full scale war. At that point it's not unusual for the sides to sign a peace deal under international pressure.

This is what happened six months before the 1994 Rwanda genocide. The UN-sponsored Arusha accords, agreed by the Hutus and Tutsis, supposedly ended the civil war. But the agreement infuriated the Hutus, leading to the genocide.

The Tamil Tiger rebels signed a peace treaty with the Sri Lanka government in 2002, under outside mediation, but the peace deal fell apart in 2004, and Sri Lanka now appears close to a major civil war.

In fact, there have been several failed peace treaties between the Arabs and Jews, including the failed 1994 Oslo Peace Treaty.

So, maybe the new Gaza peace treaty is a ploy by Hamas, or maybe it's a sincere effort by both sides to stop what is quickly becoming an uncontrolled spiral of violence. Either way, it won't prevent the generational changes that will soon lead a major war between Arabs and Jews that will engulf the entire region. (25-Nov-06) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Nov-06 Israel and Palestinians agree to a cease-fire in Gaza Strip

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Nov-06
Israel and Palestinians agree to a cease-fire in Gaza Strip