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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Dec-06
Bird flu spread off to a slow start this year

Web Log - December, 2006

Bird flu spread off to a slow start this year

Was last year's rapid worldwide spread a one-time incident?

Last season, bird flu spread rapidly from Vietnam and eastern China, moving west through Asia, then to Europe, the Mideast and Africa. It reached birds in 30 new countries in the first four months of 2006 alone.

It was expected to reach North America during the spring migration, but apparently it hasn't.

So far there's no sign of a human pandemic. In mid-2006, the virus mutated in Indonesia enough to permit human to human transmission through skin contact, but the mutations that would permit easy transmission through the air, thus causing a pandemic, have not yet occurred.

On the other hand, South Korea, which hasn't seen a bird flu outbreak since 2003, now has a major new outbreak on its hands, and is culling (killing) hundreds of thousands of quails and chickens.

Now some some experts are wondering, "Where did it go?"

Unfortunately, the danger is far from over. Perhaps its spread has been slowed by what has been a mild winter so far. Perhaps we've just been lucky. But there's no reason to believe that the danger has disappeared or even lessened. The outbreaks in South Korea show that.

Perhaps there'll be a pause of a few months or even a year. Or a human pandemic may start next week. It's impossible to predict.

Winter will arrive next week, and with it the cold weather that can cause a rapid spread again. The bitter January and February weather, when Vietnam and China have large new year's celebrations that spur large migrations of chickens, are the most dangerous times of the year.

As I've said before, you and your family should prepare immediately for a possible pandemic. If human to human transmission became public next week on Monday, then by Tuesday all the shelves in grocery stores would be bare. If you stock up on food now, then you'll be sure to have what you need. Even if you think that you can beat the crowds to the grocery store, you should still stock up in advance. If you get your canned food after the panic begins, then you're depriving somebody else of food. But if you stock up in advance, then the shelves will be restocked, and you won't deprive someone else of food.

I once again strongly urge my readers to prepare for an H5N1 pandemic or for any kind of emergency (think of hurricane Katrina) by stocking up on food and water and currency and batteries for the entire household to live on for 2-3 months. This may cost a thousand dollars per person, but it's not wasted money since you can always eat the food later if no emergency occurs. Get canned or dried food that can last a long time in storage, and get a large container for storing water. Keep in mind that stored water becomes impure with time, so you'll also need some purifying tablets or bleach to kill bacteria in the water when the time comes. Finally, get whatever medicines you'll need to take care of yourself and your family for a long period of time. (14-Dec-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Dec-06 Bird flu spread off to a slow start this year

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Dec-06
Bird flu spread off to a slow start this year