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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Dec-06
Will Mohammed Dahlan trigger a Palestinian civil war?

Web Log - December, 2006

Will Mohammed Dahlan trigger a Palestinian civil war?

Hamas blames the young Fatah terrorist for the near-assassination of Prime Minister Haniyeh.

Tension is boiling between Fatah, the moderate militia group under the control of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, and Hamas, the radical militia group whose political arm won the legislative elections earlier this year.

On Monday, three boys aged 6-9, sons of a Fatah leader, were shot dead by gunmen.

Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh at Hamas rally, yells, "We joined this movement to become martyrs, not ministers!" (Source: BBC)

Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh at Hamas rally, yells, "We joined this movement to become martyrs, not ministers!" (Source: BBC)

On Thursday, the Palestinian Prime Minister, Ismail Haniyeh, was attacked by gunmen as his motorcade crossed from Egypt into Gaza. The gunmen killed Haniyeh's bodyguard and wounded his son, but Haniyeh was unhurt.

At a massive celebration on Friday, celebrating the 19th anniversary of the founding of Hamas, Haniyeh blamed Mohammed Dahlan for the attempted murder. In his fiery speech, he defiantly yelled, "We joined this movement to become martyrs, not ministers!" to a large, enthusiastic crowd. He was referring the willingness of all Hamas members to become suicide bombers against Israel.

Massive crowds at Hamas rally. (Source: CNN)

Massive crowds at Hamas rally. (Source: CNN)

Born in 1961, Mohammed Dahlan was the youngest of the top leaders in Yasser Arafat's Fatah, and much more radical and militant. He's been the face of Palestinian terrorism many times, and has expressed the goal of war with Israel.

Now, with the Fatah and Hamas power struggle deepening and violence increasing for many months, he may well be behind an effort an effort to trigger a civil war among the Palestinians, expecting it soon to draw in Israel as a combatant. We should know within a few days.

Clashes between Fatah and Hamas in West Bank town of Ramallah. (Source: New York Times)

Clashes between Fatah and Hamas in West Bank town of Ramallah. (Source: New York Times)

However, with Dahlan was the perpetrator or not, the assassination attempt has triggered full-scale clashes between Fatah and Hamas in Gaza City and in the West Bank town of Ramallah.

Alarmed Egyptian officials are trying to mediate a deal between Fatah and Hamas, but that attempt has actually been going on for months, and success is not expected now.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a new genocidal war, replaying the crisis war between Arabs and Jews of the 1940s. As I wrote in 2003, the disappearance of Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon would signal a generational change that would lead to a major conflagration within a few years, engulfing the entire region. This prediction has been trending true, and it now appears that a Palestinian civil war may be the first step on the road to that major regional crisis war. (16-Dec-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Dec-06 Will Mohammed Dahlan trigger a Palestinian civil war?

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Dec-06
Will Mohammed Dahlan trigger a Palestinian civil war?