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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Dec-06
War begins between Somalia Islamists and Ethiopia

Web Log - December, 2006

War begins between Somalia Islamists and Ethiopia

Let's catch up on all the wars we've been following.

A low-level war began in Somalia on Wednesday between the forces controlled by the Islamists and the forces controlled by the "official" government, along with supporting troops provided by Ethiopia.

So far, it's only low-level violence, but there is great concern that other nations will join in the fighting, causing the war to spiral into a major regional war.

European envoy Louis Michel heads peace meeting, while fighting with rockets and heavy weapons continues just a few miles away. <font size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

European envoy Louis Michel heads peace meeting, while fighting with rockets and heavy weapons continues just a few miles away. (Source: BBC)

As the fighting progressed, Louis Michel, a European envoy, flew into Somalia and got both sides to agree to "talk," while the fighting continues. Whether Michel will pull a truce of the hat has to be seen, but if he does, then it's doubtful that the truce will last long.

Let's take a look at the current status of some other wars we've been following:

Sri Lanka. This low-level civil war resumed last year, when the 2002 peace agreement collapsed, and now appears to be escalating into a full-fledged crisis civil war.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the way to recognize this kind of escalation is to identify a gradual increase in genocidal acts -- which means that civilian lives have less and less value. The Sri Lanka government is using its air force to drive Tamil civilians out of rebel-held areas, and the rebels, who have perpetrated a number of terrorist acts already, recently abducted hundreds of children.
With the level of genocidal violence gradually increasing, the escalation of this war into full-scale genocidal civil war is coming into sight.

Gaza. During the last week, Hamas and Fatah have signed three peace agreements, the latest on Tuesday, and each has failed. As of Wednesday, there were still violent gunfights throughout Gaza. This war is reaching the point where a new trigger could cause it to spiral out of control. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the region is headed for a full-scale war between Arabs and Jews, and a Palestinian civil war could be the next step on the road to that war.
A recent Zogby poll shows that Arab hostility toward the United States has deepened in the last year. The poll, which was conducted in five Arab countries, shows that the major reason is America's Israeli/Palestinian policy, with the Iraq situation well behind in importance.
You'll recall that last month I said that I said that George Stephanopoulos looked like an idiot because Jordan's King Abdullah had to tell him five times that the Israeli/Palestine situation was far more important than Iraq, but Stephanopoulous and his politican guests and journalist pundits were all totally clueless. The Zogby poll proves my point.

Darfur. Humanitarian organizations around the world are bemoaning the fact that no troops have been sent in to stop the massive genocide currently going on in Darfur, but as I've said repeatedly on this web site, this is a crisis civil war, and it can't be stopped any more than a tsunami can be stopped. The world will have to wait until it's run its course.

Lebanon. At the beginning of this month, Hizbollah started staging massive anti-government protests, and those protests have continued, as have smaller counter-demonstrations by pro-government people. Pundits were predicting full scale civil war for Lebanon but, as regular readers of this web site know, Lebanon is in a generational Awakening era, and a civil war is impossible. However, a bloodless political coup is a possibility, although so far the anti-government protests have not had much effect besides blocking traffic.

Iraq. Wednesday's news from Iraq was that 40 people were killed by two separate incidents of suicide car bombing. This "proved" to the idiot MSNBC reporter that Iraq was in a civil war, even though the terrorists driving the cars were almost certainly not Iraqis and the bombings were almost certainly sponsored by al-Qaeda, which makes the suicide bombings terrorist attacks, like the attacks on 9/11.
On CNN International today, I heard one pundit, Ken Pollack of the Brookings Institute, say this: "Iraq is in a dangerous state, and it's headed for a Bosnia or Lebanon state of all-out civil war."
Now this is exactly what Generational Dynamics tells is impossible. Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, just one generation past the genocidal Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s. Now, you can call anything a civil war if you want, and if you want to call terrorist acts by non-Iraqis a civil war, then you can do it. But it is ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE for Iraq to spiral into a state of all-out civil war like Bosnia in the 1990s or Lebanon in the 1980s. It has never happened in history, during a generational Awakening era, and cannot happen now.
This is why journalists, pundits and politicians keep getting their predictions wrong. You'd think that Ken Pollack was some sort of expert, but he has NO IDEA what's going on. He simply made that "fact" up, because he and all these other journalists and pundits make ideological predictions, and they have as much chance of getting them right as if they flipped a coin. As I wrote a few days ago, Thomas Friedman and other pundits have gotten one prediction wrong after another. Generational Dynamics is the only methodology which has produced correct predictions, and this is the only web site in the world that tells you what's going on in the world, and what's going to happen.

Of the wars that I discussed above, the Somalia and Gaza wars are the most dangerous, with the Sri Lanka war close behind. If a full-fledged crisis war begins in any of these regions, then a spread to other regions will not be far behind. On the other hand, Darfur is already in a massive, full-fledged civil war, but it hasn't affected other regions outside of Africa. (21-Dec-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Dec-06 War begins between Somalia Islamists and Ethiopia

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Dec-06
War begins between Somalia Islamists and Ethiopia