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The problem is that Somalia may still not have a stable government.
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Fears of a major regional war have been quelled as the forces controlled by the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) collapsed, with many changing sides or returning to their former warlords.
Somalia's internationally recognized Premier, Ali Mohammed Gedi, has called on people in Mogadishu (the Somali capital) to disarm themselves, and has asked the Kenyan government to close its border to escaping Islamists.
Of particular interest are three al-Qaeda terrorists wanted in the 1998 bombings of American embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The ICU has been harboring these terrorists, and Gedi's government forces would like to capture them before they cross the border into Kenya.
The Islamic Courts Union (ICU) is a radical Islamist group that captured Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, on June 6, and had been increasing in power and control ever since. The ICU had defeated the internationally recognized Transitional Federal Government (TFG), formed in 2000 as a confederation of the warlords who rule the various ethnic groups that have existed for centuries and had fought each other frequently.
Somalia has taken on increasing international strategic value since 9/11, since it's believed that al-Qaeda has been using the country for training camps for terrorists. In fact, al-Qaeda training in Somalia was linked to the 2005 London subway bombings. It has been feared that, under ICU's control, Somalia would turn into a full-fledged terrorist state like Afghanistan prior to 9/11.
As the ICU increased in power, it was considered a threat to Ethiopia, a mostly Christian nation on its border. This caused Ethiopia, with American encouragement, to intervene, finally leading to full-scale war between Ethiopia and Somalia. However, the war ended quickly in the ICU's defeat, and a major regional war was avoided.
Unfortunately, this is not the end of it. The TFG was not a stable
government prior to the ICU takeover, and it won't be a stable
government now that the war has ended. The Islamists are now warning they will start an Iraq-style insurgency, so we should not
expect to hear the end of the story of Somalia for some time.
(2-Jan-07)
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