Palestinians' Fatah/Hamas crisis increases as Israeli government is close to anarchy - 7-Jan-07 - Generational Dynamics

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Jan-07

Palestinians' Fatah/Hamas crisis increases as Israeli government is close to anarchy

The possibility of a Hamas vs Fatah civil war in the Palestinian territories appears to be increasing by the day.

The murder of a senior Fatah official caused Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who is also head of Fatah, to to outlaw the Executive Force, Hamas' militia.

In response, Hamas declared that their Executive Force militia is perfectly legal, and announced plans to double the size of its militia.

An uncomfirmed DEBKA story reports that Mohammed Dahlan, a radical Fatah leader, has enlisted a terrorist group, the Palestinian Army of Islam, to join Hamas in the fight against Hamas. The Palestinian Army of Islam is a radical Gaza militia group independent of either Fatah or Hamas, but is pro-Fatah, especially since December, when two of its leaders were murdered by Hamas gunmen.

Dahlan, who may be leading the Fatah side into civil war, also led a huge Fatah rally in Gaza, marking the 42nd anniversary of Yasser Arafat's founding of the Fatah movement.

"Let Hamas shoot me," he said to the tens of thousands of cheering Gazans. "If they think the murderers will not be punished, they are mistaken. If they attacked one Fatah person, we'll attack two more."

You'll notice something about this rhetoric, dear reader. If you look at the rhethoric between Arab and Israeli leaders, you don't hear anything this inflammatory. The kind of inflammatory rhetoric that Dahlan is using indicates that the value of an individual human life is decreasing, which is part of the path to a crisis war.

All of these events followed a semi-comical series of joint announcements from Hamas and Fatah during the previous few weeks. The leaders would have a meeting, and announce a cease fire. The ceasefire would last 2-3 days, and then violence would spiral up to previous levels or higher. Then they'd have another meeting. This went through four or five cycles.

They've stopped having these meetings lately, and it appears that both sides are girding for a real battle.

Meanwhile, the Israeli government continues on its path to total paralysis, thanks to financial scandals and the military's poor performance in the Lebanon summer war against Hizbollah.

The fallout from the Lebanon war continues to increase. A new report, published on Sunday, says that Israel's Military Intelligence during the war was "unprofessional," and "mediocre to inferior." This adds to the condemnation of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) during war, which is perceived to have panicked and rushed to war quickly, without adequately planning or even any realistic objectives.

Ehud Olmert is in Ariel Sharon's shadow. <font size=-2>(Source: Spiegel)</font>

Ehud Olmert is in Ariel Sharon's shadow. (Source: Spiegel)

According to an analysis in the German publication Der Spiegel, Israelis consider the current Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to be incompetent and indecisive, especially compared to the man he replaced. Ariel Sharon, who was often hated, is now highly respected and missed, since he went into a coma a year ago. According to Spiegel:

"Sharon ... -- as even some of his enemies are willing to admit -- was a master at crisis management. Indeed, even some of his most ardent opponents miss his steady hand these days. Amos Oz for example. A year ago, Oz praised Sharon for his "mysterious transformation" which made him suddenly sound less like the military leader he had been throughout his career and more like a pacifist from the left. Sharon's unilateral decision to pull out of the Gaza Strip not only represented a dramatic new course for Israel, but also had to be pushed through against bitter resistance from the right.

Olmert, by comparison, seems to have little in the way of a political vision. The main policy he campaigned on -- that of withdrawing from parts of the West Bank and dismantling some of the settlements there -- was left behind months ago. Instead of fulfilling his campaign promises, he shuffled his coalition government to include the right-wing politician Avigdor Lieberman, a man not exactly known for his willingness to compromise with Israel's Palestinian neighbors."

The problems going on in Israel and in the Palestinian territories are no surprise. This web site has documented the fall of the Palestinian region into chaos on almost a daily basis, just as I predicted in May, 2003. That prediction was no accident and no guess; it was derived from solid generational principles, based on the fact that the region was re-fighting the genocidal war between Arabs and Jews that occurred in the late 1940s, following the partitioning of Palestine and creation of the state of Israel. As I wrote at the time, it was Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon who were keeping the region from slipping back into a total crisis war, and their disappearance would lead to total war, probably within a copule of years. That appears to be what's happening.

The new Mideast war will pull in every country in the region, including the United States, and will be part of the fabric of the new "clash of civilizations" world war that's quickly approaching.

If you get the impression, dear reader, that the entire Mideast is increasingly in total chaos, with no one having any idea what's going on or what to do next, you're right. This state of near-anarchy cannot continue much longer.

(And incidentally, if you've been watching what's been going on in Washington this past week, you'll see that the United States government may also be approaching a similar chaos.)

The new Mideast war will pull in every country in the region, including the United States, and will be part of the fabric of the new "clash of civilizations" world war that's quickly approaching. (7-Jan-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Jan-07 Palestinians' Fatah/Hamas crisis increases as Israeli government is close to anarchy

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Jan-07
Palestinians' Fatah/Hamas crisis increases as Israeli government is close to anarchy