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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Jan-07
Mutation creates Egyptian bird flu strain resistant to Tamiflu

Web Log - January, 2007

Mutation creates Egyptian bird flu strain resistant to Tamiflu

Egypt's 19th human case of H5N1 high potency avian influenza (HPAI) was identified on Thursday. A total of 19 cases have been identified in Egypt to date, and 10 have been fatal. Worldwide, there have been 161 fatalities among 267 known cases since 2003, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

In additional news, two people who died of bird flu in Egypt last month had a strain of the H5N1 virus containing a mutation that made it resistant to Tamiflu, the principal antiviral medicine available.

"[T]his is a major concern if the [mutation] is widespread because there have already been problems reported [of] associated resistance of H5N1 to Tamiflu," according to an analysis on Henry Niman's Recombinomics web site. "[Drug resistance] has already developed in patients treated sub-optimally with Tamiflu, and many countries have increased the H5N1 treatment dosage. The newly reported change would raise serious questions about the use of Tamiflu for both treatment and prevention of H5N1 containing [the mutation]."

Although the virus is mutating, it's impossible to predict when a particular mutation will permit easy human-to-human transmission, which would result in a worldwide pandemic. This could happen next week, next month, next year, or thereafter.

Once again, as I always say, you and your family should prepare immediately for a possible pandemic. If human to human transmission became public next week on Monday, then by Tuesday all the shelves in grocery stores would be bare. If you stock up on food now, then you'll be sure to have what you need. Even if you think that you can beat the crowds to the grocery store, you should still stock up in advance. If you get your canned food after the panic begins, then you're depriving somebody else of food. But if you stock up in advance, then the shelves will be restocked, and you won't deprive someone else of food.

I once again strongly urge my readers to prepare for an H5N1 pandemic or for any kind of emergency (think of hurricane Katrina) by stocking up on food and water and currency and batteries for the entire household to live on for 2-3 months. This may cost a thousand dollars per person, but it's not wasted money since you can always eat the food later if no emergency occurs. Get canned or dried food that can last a long time in storage, and get a large container for storing water. Keep in mind that stored water becomes impure with time, so you'll also need some purifying tablets or bleach to kill bacteria in the water when the time comes. Finally, get whatever medicines you'll need to take care of yourself and your family for a long period of time. (19-Jan-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Jan-07 Mutation creates Egyptian bird flu strain resistant to Tamiflu

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Jan-07
Mutation creates Egyptian bird flu strain resistant to Tamiflu