Hizbollah leader Nasrallah's latest coup attempt collapses again - 24-Jan-07 - Generational Dynamics

A general strike against the government on Tuesday paralyzed the government for several hours, but was called off by the Hizbollah-led opposition when it was clear that it would not bring down the government. Prime Minister Fouad Siniora - issued a brief, firm address to the nation in which he stood his ground and announced he would remain in office.

I find myself in a familiar situation, explaining why there's no civil war coming, even though everyone else is predicting one. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a civil war in Lebanon is impossible, since only one generation has passed since the civil war bloodbath of the 1980s.

And yet, the mainstream media appears to be unanimous in saying that the country is on the edge of civil war.

The BBC really hyped the violence and the five or so deaths that occurred. However, the dramatic pictures weren't buildings burning, but only tires burning in the middle of the road.

An article in the Christian Science Monitor says that, "Violence at sectarian flash points during a Hizbullah-backed opposition strike prompts fears of renewed civil war."

"So the worst nightmare years may have begun again. There were thousands of them - Christians fighting Christians north of Beirut, Sunni and Shia Muslims in the capital, a rain of stones, shrieks of hatred and occasionally even gunfire - that turned Lebanon into a sectarian battleground yesterday.

At the corner of a street off Corniche al-Mazraa, I watched what historians may one day claim was the first day of Lebanon's new civil war, huge mobs of young men, supporters and opponents of Fouad Siniora's government screaming abuse and throwing tens of thousands of rocks at each other as a wounded Lebanese soldier sat next to me and wept.

For the army of this tragic country is now the thin red line - some actually were wearing red berets - that stands between a future for Lebanon and the folly of civil conflict.

After 31 years in this country, I never truly believed I would see again what I witnessed on the streets of Beirut yesterday, thousands of Shia and Sunni Muslims, the first supporting the Hizballah, the second the government once led by the murdered ex-prime minister Rafiq Hariri, hurling stones and hunks of metal at each other. They crashed down around us, smashing the road signs, the advertisement hoardings, the windows of the bank against which seven Lebanese soldiers and I were cowering. Again and again, the soldiers ran into the roadway to try - with a desperation all of them understood, and they were brave men - to drag the youths from each other. Some of the Shia men, Amal members, loyal (heaven spare us) to the Speaker of Parliament, wore hoods and black face masks, most wielding big wooden clubs.

Their predecessors - perhaps their fathers - were dressed like this 31 years ago when they fought in these same streets, executioners-to-be, all confident in the integrity of their cause. Perhaps they were even wearing the same hoods. Some of the troops fired into the air; they shouted at the stone throwers. "For God's love, stop," one young soldier screamed. "Please, please."

I should mention that, as much as I've castigated the vast majority of journalists for being abysmally ignorant of the Mideast, that's not true of Fisk, who is truly an expert and is worth listening to even when he's ranting against America.

But he's wrong that Lebanon is close to civil war. The key to understanding this is the last sentence above: "For God's love, stop," one young soldier screamed. "Please, please."

The Lebanese are terrified of another civil war. This is true of every country in a generational Awakening era. In this case, the survivors who lived through the 1980s are still, to this day, completely traumatized and horrified because of the barbarity of what ordinary Lebanese people did to each other. This was especially true in the explosive climax in 1982 when Christian Arab forces massacred and butchered hundreds or perhaps thousands of Palestinian refugees in camps in Sabra and Shatila.

It's this horror and fear of repeating the atrocities of the last crisis war that prevent the survivors from ever taking part in a new crisis war. That's the essence of a generational Awakening era.

Once again, let's remember what happened during the 1960s, America's last generational Awakening era. It began in August 1963, when Martin Luther King led a march on Washington in which over 200,000 people participated. Later, President Kennedy was assassinated, and so was King. There were numerous demonstrations and riots throughout the country, some of them shutting down the government in Washington. There were "long, hot summers," led by the Black Panthers, and there were bombings and declarations of war against the government, led by the Weather Underground. President Lyndon Johnson was driven from office, and the climax was when President Richard Nixon was forced to resign.

This is the kind of thing that happens to every nation in a generational Awakening era, one generation past a crisis war, and it's what's happening in Lebanon today.

Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, with plenty of support and funding from Syria and Iran, has been attempting to overthrow the existing Lebanese government since the summer. He's called for several huge demonstrations, as well as Tuesday's general strike, but he's failed repeatedly.

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jan-07
Hizbollah leader Nasrallah's latest coup attempt collapses again

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jan-07 Hizbollah leader Nasrallah's latest coup attempt collapses again

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jan-07
Hizbollah leader Nasrallah's latest coup attempt collapses again