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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Jan-07
Computer chip speed breakthrough brings the Singularity closer

Web Log - January, 2007

Computer chip speed breakthrough brings the Singularity closer

Announcements by Intel and IBM replace silicon for the first time in 40 years

The new announcement means that it will soon be possible to pack more transistors on a chip, making the chips much faster.

The first commercial computers, made in 1950s, used components "vacuum tubes," some of which were as large as Anjou pears.

By 1965, these components had been miniaturized into transistors in such a way that many transistors could fit on a single computer chip. These components were made of silicon, and this has been the basic technology for 40 years.

During that 40 years, engineers have constantly worked to improve the speed of these computer chips (and hence the computer) by making the components smaller, so that they can be packed more densely on a chip.

The reason that this speeds up the chip's performance is as follows: The speed of operation of a chip is limited by the speed of light, since the performance is determined by how quickly the electrons can move around the chip from transistor to transistor. If the components are packed closer together, then the electrons have a smaller distance to travel, and so the chip runs faster.

The rate of improvement has been dictated by Moore's law. Moore's Law was was written in a paper by Gordon Moore of Intel Corp. in the early 1960s. It predicted that the number of transistors on a computer chip would grow at an exponential rate. History has shown that the number of transistors on a computer chip has been doubling every 18 months or so since then, and so the power of computers has been doubling every 18 months.

The size of a transistor is measured by its width at a certain point. Today, most industry chips use 90-nanometer technology (a nanometer is one-billionth of a meter). At that scale, about 1,000 transistors would fit in the width of a human hair. Starting in 2005, 65 nanometer chips became available.

As chips became smaller and more densely packed, the separations became so small that they suffered "current leakage," meaning that electrons would leak from their intended path, making the transistor hotter and slower.

The transistor is attached to the chip's silicon through a "gate," itself made of silicon. The new breakthrough is to manufacture the gate out of a metal oxide, rather than silicon.

Using these new materials, the 65 nanometer technology can now be replaced by 45 nanometer transistors.

The new transistors can be packed on chip with twice the density of the old transistors. The transistors are so small, that 2,000 of them fit could fit across a human hair, 30,000 of them could fit on the head of a pin.

Interestingly enough, Intel isn't saying what the performance improvement will be, but it should approximately double.

What all this shows is that computers continue to improve according to Moore's Law. Physicists and engineers keep finding new tricks and techniques to that the size of the transistor keeps getting smaller, and computer performance keeps doubling every 18 months.

However, the density of transistors on a computer chip is going to reach physical limits shortly after 2010. After that, different technologies will be used to continue the same exponential growth path in computer power. These will include biotechnology, nanotechnology, protein folding technology, molecular technology, and quantum technology -- under development to take the place of integrated circuits and keep the power of computers growing steadfastly, as history shows will happen.

Within a few years, it will be possible to build supercomputers that are as powerful as the human brain, and then it will be possible to develop computer software that, within a few years, make the computer as intelligent as a human being.

At some point, probably some time in the late 2020s, computers will be intelligent enough so that they'll be responsible for their own research and development as necessary to invent new, more powerful versions of themselves. At this point, known as the Singularity, computers will quickly become so much more intelligent than humans that they'll displace humans as the major "species" on earth. Whether the human race will survive long after 2030 is not known, and is impossible to predict.

Robot from <i>I, Robot</i>

Robot from I, Robot

When the movie I, Robot was released in 2004, I thought that the movie would stimulate a public discussion of the Singularity, and would motivate philosophers and religious scholars to begin to thing about its meaning for humanity.

However, I've learned from many conversations with various people that almost no one wants to think about the Singularity. That's not surprising, I guess, since investors don't seem to want to think about the global financial crisis, and politicians don't seem to want to think about the coming Clash of Civilizations World War.

Nonetheless, the Singularity is coming, whether we like it or not, and there's still time enough to prepare for it. (28-Jan-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Jan-07 Computer chip speed breakthrough brings the Singularity closer

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Jan-07
Computer chip speed breakthrough brings the Singularity closer