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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Feb-07
Vice President Dick Cheney, in Australia, criticizes China's military buildup.

Web Log - February, 2007

Vice President Dick Cheney, in Australia, criticizes China's military buildup.

Cheney repeats Donald Rumsfeld's similar warning in Singapore in 2005.

In June 2005, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld gave a speech at a conference in Singapore, including comments on China's rapid and accelerating militarization:

"[A DOD report] concludes that China’s defense expenditures are much higher than Chinese officials have published. It is estimated that China’s is the third largest military budget in the world, and clearly the largest in Asia.

China appears to be expanding its missile forces, allowing them to reach targets in many areas of the world, not just the Pacific region, while also expanding its missile capabilities within this region. China also is improving its ability to project power, and developing advanced systems of military technology.

Since no nation threatens China, one must wonder: Why this growing investment? Why these continuing large and expanding arms purchases? Why these continuing robust deployments?

China criticized Rumsfeld for this statement as being a "war-monger." This shows what a screwed up world we live in, when China can spend exponentially increasing amounts of money on massive weapons systems, and it's Rumsfeld rather than China who's the "war-monger."

Vice President Dick Cheney reads a carefully worded statement expressing concern about the rise of China's military. <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Vice President Dick Cheney reads a carefully worded statement expressing concern about the rise of China's military. (Source: BBC)

Now, almost two years later, Vice President Dick Cheney gave a speech on Friday morning in Australia, containing comments on the same issues. Here is the text of Cheney's carefully worded statement:

"Later today I'm going to meet with some members of the Australian military. My purpose is simply to thank them and their comrades for extraordinary service in a time of testing. Americans know that for this country, "standing by your mate when he's in a fight" are more than words in a song, and they signify a way of life. Having Australia's friendship makes my country very grateful and very proud.

As leading democracies, Australia and the United States feel a deep sense of responsibility for security and peace in our world. The cooperation between our governments has risen to a new level, with stronger ties of defense and counterterrorism, and much broader cooperation on intelligence and information sharing. We're working closely on the Joint Strike Fighter and on Ballistic Missile Defense. Together with other nations, we founded the Proliferation Security Initiative, with the urgent business of keeping nuclear technology out of irresponsible hands.

To this end, the six-party process has produced agreement on specific actions that will bring us closer to a Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons. We go into this deal with our eyes open. In light of North Korea's missile tests last July, its nuclear test in October, and its record of proliferation and human rights abuses, the regime in Pyongyang has much to prove. Yet this agreement represents a first hopeful step towards a better future for the North Korean people.

China has played an especially important role in the six-party process, because the Chinese understand that a nuclear North Korea would be a threat to their own security. We hope China will join us in our efforts to prevent the deployment and the proliferation of deadly technologies, whether in Asia or in the Middle East. Other actions by the Chinese government send a different message.

Last month's anti-satellite test, and China's continued fast-paced military buildup are less constructive and are not consistent with China's stated goal of a "peaceful rise." For our part, the United States and Australia have the same hopes for the future of China -- that its people will enjoy greater freedom and prosperity; that its government will be a force for stability and peace in this region."

Cheney was referring in general to China's rapidly growing buildup in high-tech military weapons clearly targeting Taiwan and the United States. These include a new generation of submarines fitted with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles capable of reaching any American city.

This buildup is consistent with a 2005 warning given by top-level Chinese army officer General Zhu Chenghu if America interfered with Taiwan: "If the Americans are determined to interfere [then] we will be determined to respond. We . . . will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian [a city in central China]. Of course the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds . . . of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese."

For about ten years, China's military strategists have been discussing "acupuncture warfare": Striking at key points of vulnerability where a single jab would paralyze the entire nation. Such acupuncture points include the US electricity grid, the Internet, oil supply routes, and its communications and spy satellites.

A month ago, in a test clearly targeting the United States, China successfully tested an anti-satellite weapon by blowing one of its own aging satellites out of the sky. It's believed that, in case of war, China could use this technology to destroy 50-100 American satellites within a few hours.

That's why Cheney particularly mentioned this anti-satellite test in his speech. If China has only peaceful intentions, why is it testing technology whose only apparent use is to destroy American satellites?

China is in the middle of New Year's celebrations, and so there was no official Chinese response to Cheney's statement.

During the interview with Lin Shaowen, the BBC showed file footage of Chinese military exhibitions. <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

During the interview with Lin Shaowen, the BBC showed file footage of Chinese military exhibitions. (Source: BBC)

But the BBC contacted Lin Shaowen, deputy director of the English service of China Radio International, and interviewed him by phone. Here's what he said:

"Well this sounded striking to us at this moment, because while at the same time he was recognizing China's efforts in bringing the six parties together - and achieving the FIRST MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH [raised voice] on substantial issues in the six party talk on the N. Korea nuclear issue, at the same time he was laboring china as again a potential threat or again a potential enemy to be contained. so far, at the moment, because of the three??? festival holidays, there's no immediate comment from the Chinese Foreign Ministry in response to Mr. Cheney's remarks made this morning in Australia.

But I can only refer you back a statement by a spokesman made 15 days ago, when he said simply, 3 elements: that test last month was not targeting any country, posing no threat to any country, and violate no international treaty. So he made it simple.

When I discussed with my colleagues the remarks made by Mr. Cheney, the only interpretation could be that he was trying to find an excuse to re-arm for military redeployment - especially in the tiny island of Guam, which is quite close to this side of the Pacific, because the United States very much has in mind of building up militarily in this part [of the world]....

This may actually give Australia and countries like this a very awkward time in making a painful decision of fighting EITHER the United States or China. The world is painted as black and white. Actually, these two countries could sit together.

This is pretty much a boilerplate response. The reference to Guam was probably made because Cheney's next travel stop will be Guam.

However, notice the following: Lin Shaowen does not deny that China is planning for war with America. He could have said, "Cheney is completely wrong; we would never want to have a war with the United States." No one from China ever says anything like that. However, the Chinese frequently say that a war is certain if America interferes with China's intention to reunite Taiwan with mainland China. Of course, the U.S. would be required to "interfere," since we're bound by a defense agreement with Taiwan.

Another thing to notice is this sentence from Lin's response: "This may actually give Australia and countries like this a very awkward time in making a painful decision of fighting EITHER the United States or China." This sounds to me like a warning to Australia that in any upcoming war, they should side with China rather than with the U.S. That, of course, is not going to happen.

Neville Chamberlain, returning from a 1938 meeting with Hitler, promising "peace in our time," holding up a signed agreement

Neville Chamberlain, returning from a 1938 meeting with Hitler, promising "peace in our time," holding up a signed agreement

I found it interesting that, as they were broadcasting Lin's live telephone interview, the BBC showed file footage of Chinese military exhibitions. (See screen shots above.) It's well worth remembering that the British have been through this before.

In 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain returned from a meeting with Hitler and declared:

"My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour.

I believe it is peace for our time.

Go home and get a nice quiet sleep."

It later turned out that Hitler was planning war with Britain on the same day that he signed that agreement. The fact that the BBC was showing Chinese military footage shows that, unexpectedly, the BBC producers may have learned something after all.

Finally, I'd like to quote from the end of Cheney's speech, to make a point about the wrong view of history:

Ladies and gentlemen, our two countries have great objectives before us, and our alliance is as important now as it has ever been. One of America's great historians, David McCullough, has noted that "among the most difficult and important concepts to convey in teaching or writing history is the simple fact that things never had to turn out as they did. Events past were never on a track. Nothing was foreordained any more then than now."

Whether in Battle of Hamel in 1918, or 65 years ago in the Coral Sea, Americans and Australians were not mere witnesses to the unfolding of events. They were acting -- bravely, decisively, and together -- to turn events toward victory. And so much of the life we know today is a credit to the decisions and the actions of those who came before.

Our generation, here and now, is also writing history. Present events are not on a track. In the war on terror, one side will win and the other will lose. Civilization will continue its upward course, or go in different direction.

It can be sobering to take stock of all the serious work that needs doing; to realize all the duties that fall to us in a perilous time. Yet it's no reason to be afraid. Rather, it's a reason to be confident. We are not hostages to fortune. Our forbears were not the sort to be intimidated, or worn down by adversaries -- and neither are we. Today, as before, Australians and Americans are people of determination, of moral courage, and decency. We are strong countries that have sacrificed greatly for peace and freedom at home and on distant shores. Our purposes in this world are good and right.

So we have made our decision. Once again, we choose to face challenges squarely. And once again, we go forward -- as allies, as comrades-in-arms, and, above all, as friends.

This view of history that major wars can be prevented or avoided is simply wrong, as Generational Dynamics has shown. In fact, it's very easy to show that great genocidal wars are unavoidable: Just note that the world population grows faster than the world food supply. Huge genocidal wars like World War II have a specific purpose: To kill enough people so that there'll be enough food for the survivors. But after a while, the population catches up to and surpasses the food supply again, and it's time for another genocidal war.

Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a Clash of Civilizations World War, and that a major component will be a genocidal war between China and the United States. This war could begin next month, next year, or thereafter, but the rapidly rising militarism of China means it can't be too far off.

Here's what I keep telling people: What's going on in the world is like a tsunami that was launched decades ago, and can't be stopped or affected by any politician. You can't stop what's going to happen, but you can prepare for it. Treasure the time that you have left, and use it to prepare yourself, your family, your community and your nation. (23-Feb-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Feb-07 Vice President Dick Cheney, in Australia, criticizes China's military buildup.

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Feb-07
Vice President Dick Cheney, in Australia, criticizes China's military buildup.