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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Mar-07
Pakistan's President Musharraf faces major crisis

Web Log - March, 2007

Pakistan's President Musharraf faces major crisis

The remarkable détente between India and Pakistan may go down with Musharraf.

Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry <font size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry (Source: BBC)

A major political and constitutional crisis in Pakistan has been triggered by the March 9 suspension, by President Pervez Musharraf of the country's Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry for abuse of office.

The suspension has triggered large riots by, of all people, lawyers. It's really hilarious to see these men in suits and ties reliving their childhoods:

Rioting lawyers, complete with suits and ties, in Islamabad, Pakistan <font size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Rioting lawyers, complete with suits and ties, in Islamabad, Pakistan (Source: BBC)

Nonetheless, even if the scenes are funny, the situation is serious. There appears to be a growing level of protest against Musharraf, especially after the police used teargas and rubber bullets against the rioting lawyers, and the police entered the offices of Geo TV, an opposition TV station, kicking down doors and wrecking property. The CJP (chief justice of Pakistan) himself appears to be turning into something of a folk hero.

Musharraf has defended his actions, saying that his family loves the CFP's family, and that he was only responding to specific charges of judicial abuse sent to him by Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz. He said that the violent police actions were not authorized by him, and that the perpetrators would be punished. "I am blamed for everything," he said.

The question to be answered this week is whether the crisis will grow. The Lahore lawyer's association is planning a complete strike on March 22.

However, reading all the press reports of the situation, I'm unable to find any evidence of widespread public opposition to Musharraf. As I've said many time, Generational Dynamics explains and predicts the behaviors and attitudes of large masses, entire generations of people. The attitudes and behaviors of a small group of lawyers do not necessarily reflect the attitudes of the public at large.

India and Pakistan are both nuclear powers, and they almost went to war in 2002, but they drew back, thanks to a remarkable détente that Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf and India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have engineered over the last few years.

Musharraf, born 1943, and Singh, born 1932, are both survivors of World War II and the subsequent genocidal war between Pakistan and India over Kashmir and Jammu, a dispute that still seethes today, even though the United Nations partitioned the region into Indian and Pakistani regions in 1947. (Birth years corrected on 24-May)

As survivors of the last crisis war, both men have spent their lives doing everything possible to guarantee that their children and grandchildren will never have to go through any similar experience. This explains why Singh and Musharraf pushed so hard, and succeeded in forging the détente between the two countries, and have maintained peace, so far, over Kashmir and Jammu.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

It's because of this détente that I set the risk level for Kashmir at Yellow (2, medium risk). However, if either Singh or Musharraf disappears, for whatever reason, then he will be replaced by someone from a younger generation who will be much more militant towards the other country, especially over Kashmir and Jammu, and the probability of nuclear war will increase substantially.

Indian subcontinent, showing the disputed regions of Kashmir and Jammu.

Indian subcontinent, showing the disputed regions of Kashmir and Jammu.

Furthermore, within Pakistan itself, Islamist extremism has risen greatly recently, largely spurred on the "success" of the London subway bombings, perpetrated by young British Muslims trained in Pakistan. Musharraf has been working effectively to control this extremism, but a younger generation Pakistani president would be far less motivated and effective.

Generational Dynamics predicts there will indeed be a new genocidal crisis war between India and Pakistan, and since both countries possess nuclear weapons, there's little doubt that they will be used. It's impossible to predict when such a war would begin, but if Musharraf disappears and is replaced by someone from a younger generation, things will certainly start moving along. (18-Mar-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Mar-07 Pakistan's President Musharraf faces major crisis

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Mar-07
Pakistan's President Musharraf faces major crisis