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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Apr-07
Iraq's Moqtada al-Sadr tells followers to attack Americans, not each other

Web Log - April, 2007

Iraq's Moqtada al-Sadr tells followers to attack Americans, not each other

This could be good news.

This story is being reported in two different ways, as either bad news or as very bad news.

Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr in December, 2006 <font size=-2>(Source: CNN)</font>

Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr in December, 2006 (Source: CNN)

The Stratfor analyst firm took the most alarmist view: "Iraq: Al-Sadr Calls For Attacks Against U.S. Forces. Radical Iraqi Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr on April 8 called on his militia, the Mehdi Army, to focus their attacks on U.S. forces instead of fellow Iraqis."

The slightly less alarmist view is a Reuters report:

"Sadr calls for anti-U.S. protest in Iraq

Thousands of Iraqis streamed to Najaf on Sunday in response to a call by a Shiite cleric, Moktada al-Sadr, for a big anti-American protest Monday.

Sadr, who blames the U.S.-led invasion for unrelenting violence in Iraq, has urged Iraqis to protest on a day that marks the fourth anniversary of when American forces swept into central Baghdad.

"In order to end the occupation, you will go out and demonstrate," Sadr, who accuses U.S. forces of fomenting civil strife in Iraq, said in a statement."

This report talks about a massive anti-U.S. protest, not an "attack." This is, in fact, what would be expected. Iraq is currently in a generational Awakening era, like America's last Awakening era, the 1960s-70s. And in any Awakening era, the population is attracted toward political protest, and away from violence. A large protest led by al-Sadr is exactly what one would expect during an Awakening era.

I get the feeling that what we're seeing here is a media reversion to 2004.

Starting in 2003, the media pundits were predicting that there would be a Shi'ite uprising against the Americans, led by Moqtada al-Sadr. The media frenzy increased throughout 2004, and by August 2004, the Boston Globe actually predicted that the Shi'ite uprising had begun.

Here's what I wrote at the time:

"Meanwhile, it's fun to watch how the mindless Boston Globe reporters cover all this. Tuesday's lead multi-column page one headline was "Shi'ites' uprising grows." That was wishful thinking, and by Wednesday the page one Iraq headline was, "Qaeda arrests called 'lucky' break." Today's headline is "Young marines frustrated by lack of progress." Each day's headline seems so moronic that it could never be topped, but the next day's is even more moronic. I don't know how they manage to do it."

Later, the media abandoned this line, and by 2006 was fully entrenched in the view that Sunnis and Shia were headed for a massive civil war. By November, NBC news had a big theatrical announcement that it was going to call the Iraq war a "civil war." It was grossly disgusting.

Well, now it's becoming increasingly clear to everyone except the stupidest Senators (i.e., Biden) and news organizations (i.e., NBC) that there's no civil war going on.

In fact, it was just last week that CNN's Michael Ware, formerly a big "civil war" cheerleader, gave an extensive analysis of the Iraq war without even using the phrase "civil war."

So now, with the "civil war" concept fading into the sunset, the media seem to be returning to their old 2004 concept of an anti-American uprising.

I recently posted a long analysis of the current situation in Iraq, emphasizing the fact that Iraqi citizens are turning against the foreign jihadist organization, "al-Qaeda in Iraq." Iraqi nationalism is beginning to re-assert itself, as it always has in times of war in the past.

In that analysis, I focused on the Sunni side of things in Iraq, but left the Shia side out, mostly because Iran's foreign policy is so contradictory, thanks to President Ahmadinejad, that it's impossible to discern what trend the Shia in Iraq might be following.

However, there are many reasons why Moqtada al-Sadr would not want see a large, violent anti-American uprising to be in his interests:

Shi'ite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr

Shi'ite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr

Moqtada al-Sadr's own father was assassinated by Saddam Hussein's organization in 1999. So al-Sadr was surely happy that the American's god rid of him.

Saddam's Sunni militias brutally controlled the country, and directed a lot of terror against al-Sadr's Shia people.

Today, al-Sadr has the potential of becoming a major political leader in the country.

Al-Sadr fully understands that the death squads and suicide bombings directed against Shia civilians are not Americans, nor are they ordinary Sunni Iraqis. After a major terrorist attack in November 2006 that killed some 200 of the supporters of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, al-Sadr himself did not blame the Sunnis; instead, he gave a press conference in which he blamed terrorist groups related to al-Qaeda.

If you read the above list of reasons, you can see that the most likely explanation for what al-Sadr is doing is political. By bringing masses of Shia into Najaf on Monday for an anti-American demonstration, he proves his own political popularity.

Moqtada al-Sadr is one individual, and there's no way to predict what he'll do. He may order additional violence, and he may, in fact, be personally responsible for roadside bombs using Iran-supplied weapons, as well as death squads against Sunnis. But there will NOT be a massive civil war or a massive anti-American uprising. Even if he ordered one, it wouldn't happen, because Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, and the great masses of people, today's generations of people, do not want it.

Massive protests are exactly what one would expect from an Iraq in a generational Awakening period. Since 2003, when I first began posting predictions about Iraq, Iraq has never failed to do exactly as Generational Dynamics predicts for a country in a generational Awakening era. (9-Apr-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Apr-07 Iraq's Moqtada al-Sadr tells followers to attack Americans, not each other

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Apr-07
Iraq's Moqtada al-Sadr tells followers to attack Americans, not each other