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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Apr-07
Northern Africa in shock after massive terrorist bombings in Algiers and Casablanca

Web Log - April, 2007

Northern Africa in shock after massive terrorist bombings in Algiers and Casablanca

The usual suspects claim credit: Al-Qaeda's branch in North Africa.

People running from the site of the Algiers suicide bombing <font size=-2>(Source: news.com.au)</font>

People running from the site of the Algiers suicide bombing (Source: news.com.au)

Three suicide bombers blew themselves up Wednesday in Algiers, killing 33 people.

The act struck fear in the entire city, because it signaled a return to the violence that plagued Algeria in 1992. At that time, the army canceled an election that an Islamic group appeared likely to win, and the resulting war and numerous terrorist attacks killed hundreds of thousands of Algerians.

After several years of relative peace, it appeared to the people of Algeria that most of the violence was behind them, but this new attack seems to indicate that it's starting again. "The worry is that this is almost a declaration of war because they targeted the Prime Minister's office and the Interior Ministry, which handles terrorist," according to one analyst on TV.

Last September, I posted an article about an Algerian terrorist group called GSPC (Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat) that had just announced that they were linking with al-Qaeda. Their goal was to establish an Islamist government in Algeria. They also threatened France, which has close ties with Algeria.

An Islamist web site claims that these three children are the suicide bombers. <font size=-2>(Source: Spiegel)</font>

An Islamist web site claims that these three children are the suicide bombers. (Source: Spiegel)

Since then, the group has renamed itself "Islamic North Africa" or "Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb." (Maghreb is the Arabic word for North Africa.) This group took responsibility for the bombings on an Internet web site picturing the three suicide bombers, claiming that they used a total of 1,900 kilograms of explosives.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is part of a continuing process of "identity group" formation. Al-Qaeda is gaining in strength, with groups stretching from southeast Asia to the Mideast to the Mahgreb and from there up to Spain and France.

It's fashionable among today's pundits to blame al-Qaeda's gain on the United States, and especially on the war in Iraq. But in fact, the growth and strengthening of al-Qaeda has been going on at least since the 1980s. Al-Qaeda terrorist attacks in the 1990s included the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, the bombing of the USS Cole, and the bombing of two American Embassies in Africa.

Since 2000, there has been 9/11, of course, but also several bombings in southeast Asia by the group Jemaah Islamiah, which also played a part in the planning of the 9/11 bombing. Other al-Qaeda linked terrorist attacks have been the London subway bombing, the Madrid subway bombing, and bombings in Egypt, in Turkey, in Pakistan, in India, and in other nations. Al-Qaeda is experience a rebirth and a surge in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is the process of "identity group formation" that can occur very rapidly during generational Crisis eras.

The al-Qaeda leaders are trying desperately to gain control of an actual country -- Afghanistan, Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Somalia, Algeria, Morocco, for example. Once they've accomplished that, then they will command the resources to wage regional wars and make demands in the United Nations General Assembly.

As I've been saying for several years, Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a Clash of Civilizations world war with absolutely certainty, but doesn't predict that scenario that will lead to that war. The increasing strength and reach of al-Qaeda suggests that one possible scenario is al-Qaeda control of some nation, leading to an escalation that pulls in other nations, resulting in a major war. In the meantime, the people of Algeria are preparing for the worst. (13-Apr-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Apr-07 Northern Africa in shock after massive terrorist bombings in Algiers and Casablanca

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Apr-07
Northern Africa in shock after massive terrorist bombings in Algiers and Casablanca