	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Apr-07
Some thoughts about the Virginia Tech massacre

Web Log - April, 2007

Some thoughts about the Virginia Tech massacre

The interesting question is how it will affect the people of Korea.

It's easy to try to make grand generalizations about what happened on Tuesday, but in one sense there really isn't that much to say. The United States has 300 million people, and out of that many people, you're going to get an occasional psychotic mass murderer.

The massacre is big international news. Every country in the world, especially throughout Europe and Asia, is giving this page one coverage.

Virginia Tech students hold a candlelight vigil on Tuesday evening. <font size=-2>(Source: CNN)</font>

Virginia Tech students hold a candlelight vigil on Tuesday evening. (Source: CNN)

Of course, it's huge news in South Korea, because the alleged killer, Cho Seung-Hui, is Korean. It's affecting Koreans in many ways -- even creating a sense of national shame. And there's one thing that never would have occurred to me -- Koreans in America are afraid of a backlash, like the backlash against Muslims after 9/11.

Is there a generational explanation? It's hard to see how.

It's true that Generation-X, the generation born during the Awakening era in the 1960s-70s are in what William Strauss and Neil Howe call the "Nomad archetype," disaffected, most likely to be in trouble with the law, but nothing like this. That explanation doesn't go anywhere anyway, because Cho Seung-Hui is 23 years old, in the new Millennial generation.

Personally, what this incident reminded me of was something that happened in 1966, when Charles Joseph Whitman, was a student at University of Texas in Austin. On August 1, shortly after his mother divorced his father, who had beaten him, he killed his mother and his wife. Then he climbed the 27-story observation tower on the college campus, and killed 15 people with a shotgun, wounding 31 others.

Now Whitman was born in 1941, in the "nice" Silent generation, and he did the same thing that Cho Seung-Hui did. So this kind of psychosis affects all generations, and then only very, very rarely.

All the political talk in the last couple of days has been about gun control. In a country where any school kid has no trouble buying cocaine if he wants it, these people start talking about banning guns. It's just more fantasy drivel from politicians who feel it's more important to say something stupid than to say nothing. At least I haven't heard anything about video games this time.

A German expert was talking about the subject on the BBC on Tuesday. He said that Germany has very strict gun control, but even so there have been 7 school killing incidents in Germany in the last few years, six with guns and one with knives. Anyone determined to get a gun can get one, no matter how strict the laws.

I'm also reminded of an incident that occurred in Cambridge, Mass., around 10-15 years ago. A young MIT student was walking along Memorial Drive beside the Charles River, when a small group of local high school students came up to him, beat the crap out him, and killed him with their fists. It was a completely random killing.

There are just people like that. Some people are too shy, some people are too noisy, and some people are too violent. When you have 300 million people, you're unfortunately going to get some who are extremely undesirable.

So what's the long view of this incident?

The most compelling outcome, if the Koreans' worst fears come true, would be that there is indeed some sort of backlash. The only reason to think that might happen is that this is a time of increasing xenophobia in general, as I discussed with respect to the harsh trade sanctions that Congress is planning against China. And yet, I don't see the same general American xenophobia against the Koreans that I see against the Chinese.

But a more significant outcome can be imagined if we turn the above scenario around. The Virginia Tech incident may not substantially affect Americans' views of Koreans, but it might affect Koreans' attitudes toward Americans.

Recall that in February I wrote a summary of Korean politics since World War II and the Korean War.

Possibly the most significant event in that entire history occurred on May 18, 1980 -- the Kwangju (Gwangju) massacre. Student anti-government demonstrations were put down by the armed forces, and dozens of students were killed. This event led, in a series of elections, to government control by leaders from the 386er generation (the Korean generation corresponding to our Generation X). Because of unproved allegations of involvement by U.S. armed forces, anti-Americanism developed among the 386ers. And here's an article, written several day ago, before the Virginia Tech massacre, that describes how these feelings have persisted to today.

So, as of today, we have the 1980 Kwangju massacre, allegedly supported by the U.S., and we have Tuesday's Virginia Tech massacre, perpetrated by a renegade South Korean student.

Among the principles of Generational Dynamics is that history can be structured by identifying huge events, such as crisis wars and Awakening eras. These huge events must occur, and can often be predicted. But it's impossible to predict the minor, day-to-day occurrences that might trigger great events.

Who would have predicted that the the the publication of Danish cartoons depicting Mohammed -- a tiny decision -- would have triggered enormous confrontations between Muslims and Westerners?

Who would have predicted that a terrorist act by Hizbollah -- capturing two Israeli soldiers near the Lebanon border -- would have caused Israel to panic and attack Lebanon within four hours, with no plan and no objective?

Initial news reports indicate that Cho Seung-Hui's actions have been an enormous shock to the South Korean public. The connection to the Kwangju massacre is not obvious to Americans, but it must be painfully and conspicuously obvious to the Koreans of the 386 generation. It will be worthwhile watching, in the next few weeks and months, whether the actions of Cho Seung-Hui on Tuesday are forgotten quickly, or whether they have a lasting significance. (18-Apr-07) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Apr-07 Some thoughts about the Virginia Tech massacre

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Apr-07
Some thoughts about the Virginia Tech massacre