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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Apr-07
Separatist rebels in Ethiopia attack Chinese oil facility, killing 74

Web Log - April, 2007

Separatist rebels in Ethiopia attack Chinese oil facility, killing 74

To the Africans, it's the Chinese who are the "imperialists" now

Gunmen attacked a Chinese oil field in Jijiga, in Ethiopia on Tuesday <font size=-2>(Source: turkishpress.com)</font>

Gunmen attacked a Chinese oil field in Jijiga, in Ethiopia on Tuesday (Source: turkishpress.com)

200 gunmen attacked a Chinese oil field in a remote area of Ethiopia on Tuesday.

The event was described as "a massacre," as the gunmen overwhelmed more than 100 Ethiopian soldiers protected in the field in a fierce 50 minute gun battle.

According to Xinhua, 65 Ethiopian employees and 9 Chinese workers were killed in the attack. Seven other Chinese workers were kidnapped by the gunmen, indicating that the incident may not be over. The facility was run by the Zhongyuan Petroleum Exploration Bureau under the China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation.

The oil field is located in JiJiga in the province of Ogaden, which occupies all of eastern Ethiopia. This province has been bitterly disputed in the past in wars between Somalia and Ethiopia, and the region contains both Somalis and Ethiopians.

The perpetrators were the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), a terrorist group seeking to separate Ogaden from Ethiopia. They took credit for the attack in a press release on their web site. In it, they said:

"The ONLF has informed the Chinese government in the past that it would be unwise to pursue discussions with the [Ethiopian government] as it was not in a position to guarantee the safety of any firm operating in Ogaden nor was it in a position to enter into contracts with foreign companies for Oil exploration in Ogaden. Unfortunately this warning fell on deaf ears.

We urge all international oil companies to refrain from entering into agreements with the Ethiopian government as it is not in effective control of the Ogaden despite the claims it makes."

What makes this so startling, of course, is that we have a rebel group directing its fire at the Chinese rather than the Americans.

In the last decade, China has been making deals with various African governments to exploit the continent's massive oil and mineral deposits.

What's happening to China is what always happens when a powerful country makes a deal to exploit the resources of a less powerful country. It's starts out being a "win-win" situation, because the powerful country gets the resources it needs, while the less powerful country gets money and jobs that it wouldn't otherwise have gotten.

But, no matter what the deal is, sooner or later the less powerful country is going to feel that they're being taken advantage of, and they turn against what they now call the "imperialist power." This has happened to European countries, and of course it's happened to the United States many times.

Now it's China's turn, and it's only going to get worse for the Chinese. China is increasingly being called "imperialist," and the Chinese workers are viewed as often disrespectful of African workers. Recently, 15 Chinese workers were kidnapped in Nigeria, and other Chinese workers were attacked in Kenya. The Ethiopia attack is the largest so far.

Horn of Africa

Horn of Africa

The level of conflict has been increasing steadily on the horn of Africa for a year, now. The Ethiopians were at war in Somalia last year when Islamist groups took power, and the Islamists were forced to retreat into Kenya.

Since that time, however, the Ethiopian forces have withdrawn, and clan warfare has returned to Somalia, creating an enormous humanitarian crisis.

Up until now, it's just been African forces in the horn of Africa, with occasional support from Americans. So far, there are no Chinese armed forces in the region.

China isn't used to dealing with situations like the one they're faced with now. China is into a generational Crisis era, a time when anxiety and panic tend to take over the population and the government. If China overreacts and sends armed forces into Africa, things could heat up pretty quickly.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

I've never put the Darfur war (in the west of Sudan) or any African wars on my little risk graphic, because my risk graphic is intended to depict only regions where a regional war is likely to spread to a major war, and then a world war. My feeling has been that as terrible as the Darfur war was, for example, it was extremely unlikely to expand to pull in other countries, and spread into Europe or Asia.

If China overreacts and sends forces into Africa, that could change. In the meantime, there must be a great deal of handwringing going on in the hallowed halls of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing. (25-Apr-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Apr-07 Separatist rebels in Ethiopia attack Chinese oil facility, killing 74

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Apr-07
Separatist rebels in Ethiopia attack Chinese oil facility, killing 74