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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-May-07
Chavez threatens further harsh reprisals against the "fascist assault" by the media

Web Log - May, 2007

Chavez threatens further harsh reprisals against the "fascist assault" by the media

In Venezuela, the student anti-government demonstrations appear to headed for a violent climax, as President Hugo Chávez threatened further harsh government actions against reporters and students.

Do you remember the pictures of rioting students that were in the the article that I posted yesterday?

Well, some of those pictures came from a Venezuelan television news station called Globovisión.

Chávez went on television on Wednesday in a very bellicose, threatening mood, and blamed the media, especially Globovisión, for "creating chaos" in the streets.

"Greetings, Globovisión, you will see where you will go. You may move forward, and you may continue to call people to disobedience and encouraging my assassination, like you did openly late Sunday (May 27), if you want to. But I am warning you in front of the country, take my advice, take a sedative and cool down. Otherwise, I will take care of Globovisión myself."

For students, he provided the following warning:

"Be careful, you are being used as a tool by some people who want you to get killed."

Anyone who remembers America in the 60s will immediately realize that this is EXACTLY the wrong thing to do in response to student protests. Threatening students only infuriates them. Threatening reporters only makes them more arrogant.

This is beginning to look very bad.

My belief is that if Chávez simply backed off, then the demonstrations would just peter out. This opinion is based on the reasons I gave yesterday -- Venezuela is well into its generational Unraveling period, and the generation gap that drives demonstrations in the Awakening era is now pretty much in the past.

But Chávez is not backing off. Instead, he's raising the stakes for everyone. He'd have to be crazy to think that everyone is going to back down just because he threatens them -- but then again he is a nutcase, isn't he.

Yesterday I identified two recent historical events that might be comparable: China's 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, and South Korea's 1980 Kwangju massacre. Both of these massacres occurred during the Unraveling era, so they would have similar characteristics. If Chávez continues as he has, then someone is going to get killed, and the word "massacre" will apply.

Incidentally, massive demonstrations in Unraveling eras don't have to end in massacres. For example, there were several large demonstrations in America in the 1990s Unraveling era -- the Million Man march and civil rights demonstrations come to mind. These didn't end in massacres because, after all, nobody shot at the demonstrators. The demonstrations were just allowed to peter out by themselves.

However, Chávez doesn't appear to be heading in that direction. The next few weeks in Venezuela should be interesting. (31-May-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-May-07 Chavez threatens further harsh reprisals against the "fascist assault" by the media

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-May-07
Chavez threatens further harsh reprisals against the "fascist assault" by the media