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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jun-07
Hamas presses for control in Gaza, Fatah gets revenge in West Bank

Web Log - June, 2007

Hamas presses for control in Gaza, Fatah gets revenge in West Bank

The U.N. is considering deployment of a multinational force in Gaza, as it appears increasingly likely that the terrorist militia group Hamas will soon be in complete control of Gaza.

Young Fatah fighters in the West Bank prepare for revenge against Hamas. <font size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Young Fatah fighters in the West Bank prepare for revenge against Hamas. (Source: BBC)

Fatah's forces in Gaza crumbled quickly under fierce mortar and rocket fire.

In one particularly spectacular move, a Fatah security headquarters building in the southern town of Khan Younis was blown up by a bomb planted in a tunnel beneath the building, dug from a nearby home over a period of months.

There's been violence in Gaza for some time, and one thing that's been concerning analysts is the fear that the violence might jump to the West Bank territory. That's now happening increasingly, as Fatah kidnapped several employees of a Hamas production company.

Analysts are now forseeing the possibility that Hamas will control Gaza and Fatah will control the West Bank. With Hamas in Gaza, Gaza would essentially be a terrorist state, and would prepare to launch an attack against Israel. Before long, Israel, Gaza and the West Bank would all be involved in a bloody war in some scenarios.

Israeli and Palestinian forces have informally asked the United Nations to consider deploying a peacekeeping force in Gaza to prevent any further escalation of violence. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon discussed the issue with the Security Council, but no decision was taken.

On June 13, 2007, (1) Hamas claimed to be taking control of Gaza; (2) Fatah increasingly retaliated on the West Bank; (3) a car bomb killed an anti-Syrian lawmaker in Beirut; and (4) the Shia al-Askariya shrine in Samarra was bombed again.

On June 13, 2007, (1) Hamas claimed to be taking control of Gaza; (2) Fatah increasingly retaliated on the West Bank; (3) a car bomb killed an anti-Syrian lawmaker in Beirut; and (4) the Shia al-Askariya shrine in Samarra was bombed again.

Slowly but surely, you can see that my 2003 Generational Dynamics predictions about the Mideast are coming to pass. Each day the all-out genocidal war that was predicted comes closer.

The involvement of a U.N. force would make the situation much more complicated. Suppose there is a U.N. force. Are they just going to stand there and watch people kill each other, as other U.N. forces have done? Are they going to shoot at people under some circumstances? Will they shoot at Fatah people? At Hamas people? At Israeli people? And what if those people shoot back? Does the U.N. then send in a larger force?

As you can see, the path to all-out war is getting clear and clearer.

Pundits are always pretty naīve about what's coming in the Mideast, always predicting the most wildly optimistic option possible -- there'll be a peace plan, a peace process, the next cease-fire will work, etc. (And in the case of Iraq, pundits always predict the most pessimistic option possible. Why is that?)

But Generational Dynamics has always been very clear about what's going to happen to the Israelis and the Palestinians: There's going to be a violent genocidal war between Arabs and Jews, replaying the genocidal war between Arabs and Jews that took place in the 1940s, after Palestine was partitioned and the state of Israel was created. We don't yet know the scenario that will take us to that all-out war, but we're clearly getting closer to it every day. (14-Jun-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jun-07 Hamas presses for control in Gaza, Fatah gets revenge in West Bank

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jun-07
Hamas presses for control in Gaza, Fatah gets revenge in West Bank