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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jun-07
The al-Askariya Shrine in Samarra, Iraq, is bombed again

Web Log - June, 2007

The al-Askariya Shrine in Samarra, Iraq, is bombed again

Last year's bombing triggered months of vicious sectarian violence in Baghdad, and it appears that the perpetrators of Wednesday's bombing are hoping to do the same again.

The al-Askariya shrine prior to February, 2006. You can see the golden dome and the two golden minarets. <font size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

The al-Askariya shrine prior to February, 2006. You can see the golden dome and the two golden minarets. (Source: BBC)

The Sunni insurgency was actually beginning to diminish at the end of 2005 and the beginning of 2006, when al-Qaeda bombed the Shiite al-Askariya shrine in Samarra in February, 2006. At that time, al-Qaeda in Iraq was headed by Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi; he was killed in June of last year.

However, the bombing of the shrine triggered the massive sectarian violence that occurred in Baghdad last year, fooling pundits and politicians into thinking that Iraq was having a civil war.

Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, meaning that it's "attracted away from war." This means that any situation appearing to be leading toward war will be strongly resisted by the Iraqi people, and will soon fizzle out.

Top: The shrine after the February 2006 bombing. You can see one of the two golden minarets on the left. Bottom: The shrine today. The two minarets are now completely destroyed. <font size=-2>(Source: BBC and CNN)</font>

Top: The shrine after the February 2006 bombing. You can see one of the two golden minarets on the left. Bottom: The shrine today. The two minarets are now completely destroyed. (Source: BBC and CNN)

And that's exactly what's happened. As I wrote a few months ago, the Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq, who are actually foreign invaders. This is exactly what you'd expect during an Awakening era.

The new bombing of the al-Askariya shrine appears to be an act of desperation by al-Qaeda in Iraq, hoping to trigger a new surge in sectarian violence. However, Shia Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr both called for calm today, naming al-Qaeda as the perpetrators. Al-Sadr also blamed the "American occupiers."

But there's no universal agreement that al-Qaeda was the perpetrator this time. The issue this time is that the shrine was being guarded by 150 officers in the Iraqi police force.

In a lengthy discussion between two Iraqi government officials on the BBC early Wednesday, the Shia official said that it was certain that the perpetrators were al-Qaeda and former Sunni Baathists.

However, the Sunni official claimed that it was more likely that Iran was the perpetrator. He asked, "Who benefited most from the insurgency in the last year?", and he answered his question by saying that the Shia militias, funded and armed by Iran, were benefited the most. He suggested, therefore, that it was the Shia militias controlled by Iran that perpetrated Wednesday's bombing.

At any rate, it's clear that Wednesday's bombing was an "inside job," involving some cooperation with the Iraqi police.

On June 13, 2007, (1) Hamas claimed to be taking control of Gaza; (2) Fatah increasingly retaliated on the West Bank; (3) a car bomb killed an anti-Syrian lawmaker in Beirut; and (4) the Shia al-Askariya shrine in Samarra was bombed again.

On June 13, 2007, (1) Hamas claimed to be taking control of Gaza; (2) Fatah increasingly retaliated on the West Bank; (3) a car bomb killed an anti-Syrian lawmaker in Beirut; and (4) the Shia al-Askariya shrine in Samarra was bombed again.

As we can see from the three stories on Mideast violence that I've posted today, al-Qaeda appears to be making gains. They're being pushed back by Iraqis in Iraq, but it's doubtful that the Americans can ever stop the suicide bombings. In Lebanon, the Fatah al-Islam group has allowed al-Qaeda to gain a foothold there.

In Gaza, Hamas is closely allied with Egypt's radical Muslim Brotherhood, which is increasingly closely linked with al-Qaeda.

Al-Qaeda also remains active across the Mahgred (northern Africa) and across Europe, stretching back to Indonesia in southeast Asia.

However, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, al-Qaeda is not the greatest threat facing America. Even if al-Qaeda is successful in launching terrorist acts on American soil, as horrible as they are, no more than a few thousand people are likely to be killed.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

The biggest threat to America is the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, which will be fought on multiple fronts -- against China in Asia, in the Mideast, in Europe, possibly Africa, and even with Mexican radicals. Hundreds of thousands of Americans died in World War II, and tens of millions died worldwide, and that will be increased proportionately in the coming war. (This paragraph was corrected on June 14) (14-Jun-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jun-07 The al-Askariya Shrine in Samarra, Iraq, is bombed again

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jun-07
The al-Askariya Shrine in Samarra, Iraq, is bombed again