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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Jul-07
Pakistan's High Court hands President Musharraf a humiliating defeat

Web Log - July, 2007

Pakistan's High Court hands President Musharraf a humiliating defeat

Musharraf's government is in question at a time when al-Qaeda violence in surging in Pakistan.

First, it's important to understand that the hatred being directed against Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf is extremely intense, comparable to the hatred that's been directed at leaders of other countries in generational Crisis eras -- George Bush, Tony Blair, Ehud Olmert, and increasingly toward Nicolas Sarkozy, for example. And in China, with tens of thousands of regional anti-government riots occurring every year, the hatred of Hu Jintao must be enormous. This same hatred was directed at American presidents in previous Crisis eras -- by the Republicans against President Franklin Roosevelt, and by the Democrats against President Abraham Lincoln. It's just what always happens.

And just as rhetoric directed at George Bush today can only be described as fatuity bordering on gibberish, the same quality of rhetoric is being directed at Musharraf. That's why it's difficult to discern what's going on from someone like myself, writing on a computer halfway around the world.

Shortly after they began, I reported on the riots against Musharraf by lawyers, after his March 9 suspension of the country's Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry. Chaudhry then became the symbolic leader of the opposition to Musharraf.

Rioting lawyers, complete with suits and ties, in Islamabad, Pakistan, on March 18 <font size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Rioting lawyers, complete with suits and ties, in Islamabad, Pakistan, on March 18 (Source: BBC)

Now frankly, I thought at the time and still think that this is something of a big joke. It's one thing when you have demonstrating college students or rioting Islamists, but when you have a bunch of lawyers in suits and ties running around with their hands in the air, complaining about the government, then you know that you've entered a very special cartoon world. (However, an online correspondent from Karachi tells me that many of the "lawyers" you see on TV in these demonstrations are actually ordinary people dressed as penguins to look like lawyers.)

Nonetheless, Friday's decision by Pakistan's High Court to completely reverse Musharraf's decision is being called "historic" and a "landmark verdict" and the "birth of a new Pakistan." It's the same kind of fatuous rhetoric we heard over here when Scooter Libby was found guilty.

What makes the situation very dangerous, however, is the parallel development of surging al-Qaeda violence throughout Pakistan, following the the spectacular assault on radical mosque in Islamabad, Pakistan's capital city.

It now appears increasingly likely that the entire Red Mosque confrontation was purposely set up by al-Qaeda agents to energize al-Qaeda militants, and even draw them into Pakistan from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

According to an article by Debka, which has contacts within Israeli intelligence but often gets things wrong, al-Qaeda ordered the Red Mosque confrontation and resulting violence because the Pakistan army was close to capturing Osama bin Laden and his second in command, Ayman Zawahiri. My attitude toward this sort of thing is like everyone else's: I'll believe it when I see it.

However, there's no doubt that violence from al-Qaeda and Taliban has been increasing, especially in the tribal regions in North Waziristan (adjacent to Afghanistan), where tribal leaders have torn up a so-called "peace treaty" that they signed with the government last year, and have essentially declared war on the government.

During the last week, a series of daily bomb attacks has killed more than 200 people.

The suicide bombings have occurred in Waziristan and in Islamabad itself, but they've spread as far as the southwest, where suicide bombers attacked a convoy of Chinese workers, killing at least 27 Pakistanis.

The result is a major political crisis for Musharraf, who is facing reelection later this year. The Chief Justice confrontation has energized the political opponents, and the Red Mosque confrontation has energized the Islamist terrorists.

As I've said before, Musharraf's position in Pakistan is a major stabilizing factor in the region, and this is strongly affected by the fact that Musharraf was born in 1943, and has personal memory of World War II and the violent genocidal war between India and Pakistan that ended in 1947 without ever being really settled.

If Musharraf disappears, for whatever reason, then he will be replaced by someone from a younger generation who will be much more militant towards India, and the short-term probability of nuclear war between India and Pakistan will increase substantially.

Generational Dynamics predicts there will indeed be a new genocidal crisis war between India and Pakistan, and since both countries possess nuclear weapons, there's little doubt that they will be used. It's impossible to predict when such a war would begin, but if Musharraf disappears and is replaced by someone from a younger generation, then a major confrontation could develop quickly. (21-Jul-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Jul-07 Pakistan's High Court hands President Musharraf a humiliating defeat

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Jul-07
Pakistan's High Court hands President Musharraf a humiliating defeat