	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 06-Sep-07
Germany foils a "massive" terrorist attack on US facilities

Web Log - September, 2007

Germany foils a "massive" terrorist attack on US facilities

The suspects had amassed 1500 pounds of hydrogen peroxide -- the same chemical used in the London subway suicide bombings in 2005.

The three suspects arrested by German police on Wednesday are aged 22-29. Two are German and one is Turk. They had formed a terror cell called the Islamic Jihad Union in Hamburg in December, 2006, just 9 months ago.

The three were in the final stage of planning "massive" and "imminent" attacks on American targets in all across Germany. The attacks would have been linked to an al-Qaeda celebration of the 9/11 attacks.

"The main motivation of the group in Germany is hatred against American citizens and therefore they had as main targets the American military installations," Jorg Ziercke, president of Germany's Federal Criminal Investigation Office, said. Possible targets might have included Ramstein Air Base and Frankfurt Airport, as well as discos, pubs, airports and other places frequented by Americans.

They had received terror training from al-Qaeda linked clerics in Pakistan. It would be interesting to get more information about this.

The successful July 7, 2005, London subway bombing has been a powerful tool for the Islamist radicals in recruiting young Muslims in England to form terror cells for further terrorist acts.

As I wrote in the article, "MI5 chief: U.K. flooded with Islamic terrorists / sympathizers," from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, many of Britain's young Muslims have set up a "Hero/Prophet" relationship with the radical clerics in Pakistan. This kind of relationship is the visceral basis by means of which new genocidal crisis wars begin. There's an emotional connection between the elder Prophet generation (the idealistic generation born after the last crisis war) and the impatient college age Hero generation (the soldiers who will be fighting the new crisis war).

The initial news reports don't give any details about the German terrorists' relationships with Pakistani clerics, but it appears likely that the same kind of "Hero/Prophet" relationship has developed.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this kind of Hero/Prophet relationship is a standard precursor to the worst kinds of crisis wars. As a country enters a crisis era, approximately 55-60 years after the end of the last crisis war, immigration issues, and xenophobia in general, become important political issues, as is happening today in countries around the world.

At first, this anti-immigrant attitude is diffused and unfocused. But as time goes on, the kids in the younger Hero generation focus on Prophets that best represent their points of view and provide a call for action. The point of view can turn into what might be called "hatred," and the call for action might be called "war."

This happens to every nation to some extent. On this web site we've often discussed the increasing xenophobia between Latinos and Anglos in America, between Europeans and Muslims, between Jews and Arabs, between Pakistanis and Indians, between Chinese and Japanese, between Koreans and Japanese, between Chinese and Americans.

The al-Qaeda cells today are probably the most "advanced" in this process, in that many of them have accepted the call to action, and are preparing for their own wars through terrorist acts and altruistic suicide.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

Here's a possible scenario to show how this works: Right now, American hatred of the Chinese and Chinese hatred of Americans is fairly diffused and unfocused. But suppose there's an international financial crisis, as is expected in the next few weeks. Then the young people in each country will listen to those in the "Prophet" generation who tell them what they want to hear: That the reason that they're starving or homeless is because the wealthy people on the other side (Chinese or Americans, respectively) have purposely harmed them. Once that happens, then demands start getting made, tempers flare, somebody panics, and a war starts.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a new world war is coming with 100% certainty. It might start next week, next month, next year, or thereafter, but it's coming sooner rather than later, and one possible trigger may be a major worldwide financial crisis. (06-Sep-07) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 06-Sep-07 Germany foils a "massive" terrorist attack on US facilities

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 06-Sep-07
Germany foils a "massive" terrorist attack on US facilities