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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Sep-07
Pressure is building in Israel for a new invasion of Gaza

Web Log - September, 2007

Pressure is building in Israel for a new invasion of Gaza

Surprisingly, many Palestinians are allying with Israel against Hamas.

Pressure is building in Israel for a major military assault in the Gaza Strip, after Palestinian militants from Islamic Jihad fired rockets into an Israeli army base, injuring 69 soldiers.

There have been a steady stream of these home-made Qassam rockets coming from Gaza into Israel since 2004. These rockets lack any guidance system, so they go wherever they go, within a 5-6 mile range. They rarely cause harm, but this successful strike is causing an already anxious Israeli public to demand that something be done.

However, the demand to "do something" is not new. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have launched hundreds of pinpoint strikes, targeting Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders, without any effect on the Qassam rockets.

Thus, the IDF is now considering a major assault on Gaza, possibly a complete Israeli re-occupation.

Hamas leaders have responding by going into hiding, after evacuating their security installations, their civilian offices, and even their homes.

Long-time readers of this web site will recall that when the Mideast Roadmap to Peace was announced in May, 2003, calling for side-by-side Palestinian and Israeli states, I predicted that the Roadmap would never succeed, and that the death of Yasser Arafat, when it occurred, would trigger a generational change leading to a new genocidal war between Arabs and Jews. This is based on a Generational Dynamics analysis of the situation following the genocidal war of the late 1940s, when Palestine was partitioned and the state of Israel was created.

Since the death of Arafat in December, 2004, I've been watching carefully to see whether the hatreds necessary for such a war would start building up.

It certainly likely to happen, especially in Gaza, where the median age is 16, guns and other weapons are plentiful, and the standard of living is one of the poorest in the world.

These hatreds HAVE been building up, but not between Palestinians and Israelis, which is what I expected.

Instead, such tensions have been building up between the two major groups of Palestinians, Fatah and Hamas.

I have NOT seen a build-up in hatred between Arabs and Jews. I've mentioned this several times in the past -- that this is the missing ingredient. I particularly noted it in last summer's war between Israel and Hizbollah.

In that war, Israel panicked and went to war in four hours, with no plan and no objective. This behavior is typical of a country in a generational crisis era.

However, here's what DIDN'T happen:

The Lebanese people didn't join Hizbollah against Israel, even when Lebanese infrastructure was bombed. This Lebanese behavior is exactly what is to be expected, since Lebanon is in a generational Awakening era, since only one generation has passed since the end of the genocidal 1980s Lebanese civil war.

Even the Hizbollah soldiers didn't really get into the fight that much, choosing to launch missiles and then return to their wives and families. This is to be expected for exactly the same reason -- Hizbollah soldiers are Lebanese, and Lebanon is in a generational Awakening era.

The Palestinians didn't side with Hizbollah or join in the fight against Israel, as Hizbollah and Iran had hoped.

Palestinian Territories <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: Der Spiegel)</font>

Palestinian Territories (Source: Der Spiegel)

Instead, what we saw instead is a civil war between Fatah and Hamas, and a stunning victory of Hamas over Fatah in Gaza in June.

Last December, I wrote an article attempting a generational breakdown of the major Palestinian groups. Here's a summary:

The Old Guard. These are people born before 1949, including Yasser Arafat and Mahmoud Abbas. Having lived through and survived the genocidal 1940s war between Jews and Arabs, they've made it their life goal to keep any such war from occurring again. They negotiated the 1994 Oslo peace agreement with Israel. Arafat died in 2004, and Abbas is over 70 years old. This generation has all but disappeared.

Hamas Generation. Born in the decades following the 1940s war, they have no personal memory of its horrors. Hamas was formed in the early 1980s. It began the first Intifada, starting in 1989. They agreed to a ceasefire when the Oslo agreement was signed, but refused to honor the agreement or recognize Israel. Today, they're more and more the generation in charge, as the Old Guard generation disappears. They use violence against Israel for political ends.

The Young Guard. This is the generation of young militants described above. Born since 1980, they consider violence against Israelis as an end in itself, and many (or perhaps most) are committed to the destruction of Israel.

However, it's now become clear that this breakdown has to be modified.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and their ministers have been meeting from time to time, making plans for peace. A recent poll shows that nearly three-quarters of Palestinians now oppose the Hamas takeover of Gaza.

What appears to be happening is that the two younger generations, that I've identified as the "Hamas Generation" and the "Young Guard," respectively, actually each have to be split into two groups, one a group of militants dedicated to the destruction of Israel, and one who considers Israel less evil than the militants wishing to destroy Israel.

But what continues to be the greatest surprise is that the hard-core militants that hate Israel appear to be a fairly small group. This group is centered in Gaza, while the moderate group is centered in the West Bank.

The basic generational prediction has not changed -- a new genocidal war re-fighting the genocidal war of the late 1940s between Palestinians and Jews.

As I always say on this web site, Generational Dynamics tells you where you're going, but doesn't tell you what scenario you'll follow to get there.

It now seems actually possible that the fight will be Israelis + Palestinians versus Palestinians, at least at the beginning. As the war grows, and everyone is forced to choose sides, I would still expect the war to be between Palestinians and Israelis.

If the IDF does indeed purse a major incursion into Gaza, then we may soon see how long these new alliances can last. (12-Sep-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Sep-07 Pressure is building in Israel for a new invasion of Gaza

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Sep-07
Pressure is building in Israel for a new invasion of Gaza