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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Oct-07
Burma (Myanmar) demonstrations fizzle after violent government response

Web Log - October, 2007

Burma (Myanmar) demonstrations fizzle after violent government response

Thousands of troops are exerting a massive stranglehold on the streets of Rangoon (Yangon) on Monday, as the street protests have died out.

It's thought that hundreds of activists and citizens have been shot dead or burned alive in government crematoriums. Thousands of Buddhist monks, who led the protests to begin with, have been rounded up and detained. Some have been found floating face down in rivers. Horror stories abound.

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In an odd coincidence, Sylvester Stallone has witnessed some of the genocide that was going on in Burma even before the recent protests began.

Stallone returned eight days ago from shooting his new movie "John Rambo," filmed on a river separating Thailand and Burma.

"I witnessed the aftermath—survivors with legs cut off and all kinds of land mine injuries, maggot-infested wounds and ears cut off. We saw many elephants with blown off legs. We hear about Vietnam and Cambodia and this was more horrific," Stallone told The Associated Press in a telephone interview Monday. "This is a hellhole beyond your wildest dreams," Stallone said. "All the trails are mined. The only way into Burma is up the river." Stallone said that he plans to incorporate the real-life genocide into the movie during editing.

Ironically, the army need not have resorted to violence to end the protests. As I wrote a week ago in my article, "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter," Burma is in a generational Unraveling era.

Burma's last crisis war ended in 1958. Following the end of a crisis war, a country or society goes through a series of "generational eras," as the generations change and fight one another. The greatest conflict is between the generations that lived through and survived the crisis war, and those born after the war ended. This "generation gap" generates the behaviors that are characteristic of each era. The Awakening era, which begins 15-20 years after the crisis war ends, is characterized by strident political battles between survivor and post-war generations. The Unraveling era, which begins around 40 years after the crisis war ends, is a time when all the "lessons learned" from the last crisis war unravel. About 60 years after the crisis war ends, when the survivors of the last crisis war all die or retire, a new generational Crisis era begins.

During a generational Unraveling era, large protests and demonstrations occur, but they always fizzle out quickly, as I explained last week. So if the army had simply waited a few days, they would have gotten what they wanted without violence.

This is a perfect example of how an understanding of Generational Dynamics can aid policy makers. If the Burmese government officials had understood what a generational Unraveling era is, then they would have known not to start spraying civilians with machine gun fire.

There's a lot of wishful thinking going on in the world about Burma. For example, Carl Bildt, Minister for Foreign Affairs for Sweden, wrote an article entitled, "Rotten regime will not be long-lived." In this article, he says:

"Regimes like that in present-day Burma never last forever, and in our increasingly open world these enclaves of isolation are being placed under ever greater pressure.

Human rights are justly regarded as universal; modern IT technology does not respect old borders, and the accelerating process of globalisation is gradually opening up even the most closed of societies.

The only thing we can say with absolute certainty about present-day Burma is that the current regime will sooner or later belong in the past. We would like to be able to say when and how this will happen - and we would like for it to happen now, through the open dialogue that not least the monks are calling for in their protest."

Unfortunately, Sweden's foreign affairs minister doesn't understand a generational Unraveling era either. If he did, he'd know that the current regime is certain to survive for many years. Burma will enter a generational Crisis era again in the late 2010s. Around that time, there will be a new civil war, and almost certainly the current regime will be overthrown.

There's nothing magic or psychic about these conclusions. Students of generational theory have identified hundreds of similar situations throughout history where exactly the same thing happens over and over.

Let's take a brief look at some other news stories that we've covered on this web log:

Venezuela is also in an Unraveling era, and when students rioted against Hugo Chávez in May, the protests fizzled quickly.

China was in an Unraveling era in 1989, when the the Tiananmen Square massacre occurred. In that case, a violent overreaction by the Chinese authorities did succeed in dispersing the crowd, but was an enormous shock to China, and resulted in the Falun Gong dissident movement that threatens the stability of China at the present time.

Iran is just entering its Awakening era, just one generation after the end of the genocidal 1980s Iran/Iraq war. As I wrote in my analysis, "Iran's President Ahamadinejad facing a growing 'generation gap,'" students are stridently opposed to many of the oppressive policies of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. However, Westerners who have been hoping for an overthrow of the hardline Muslim mullahs who rule Iran are going to be disappointed -- such conflicts do not happen during Awakening eras.

Lebanon is also in an Awakening era. For over a year, since the 2006 war between Hizbollah and Israel, pundits have overwhelmingly been predicting a new Lebanese civil war. I've pointed out repeatedly that such a civil war is completely impossible during an Awakening era, and time has shown that to be true.

Iraq is in an Awakening era, a time of enormous political turmoil, but no civil war. The talk of an incipient civil war in Iraq for several years has been political nonsense. Now we're seeing more and more stories about sharp reductions in casualties in Iraq, and greater Sunni/Shia cooperation in the government. The credit for this is being given to America's military "surge" strategy, but I would give even more credit to the simple fact that Awakening era behavior is finally asserting itself. The idea of a Sunni/Shia war during an Awakening era never made any sense at all, which is why on this web site I've been emphasizing the role of the invading forces -- especially al-Qaeda in Iraq. Now, finally, the expected behavior appears to be coming to pass.

Every one of these examples has domestic policy implications for the countries involved, and foreign policy implications for the United States and other countries. Generational Dynamics can serve as a powerful tool by governments in determining matters of state and war. (2-Oct-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Oct-07 Burma (Myanmar) demonstrations fizzle after violent government response

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Oct-07
Burma (Myanmar) demonstrations fizzle after violent government response