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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Oct-07
President Jimmy Carter has near-altercation in Darfur

Web Log - October, 2007

President Jimmy Carter has near-altercation in Darfur

Generationally, Darfur is ten years ahead of Burma.

Former President Jimmy Carter got into a shouting match with Sudanese security forces who blocked him from visiting with Darfur refugees.

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"You can't go! It's not on the program!" said Omar, the security chief.

"We're going anyway! You don't have the power to stop me!" said Carter.

In the end, the Sudanese did block his visit, and Carter was forced to leave.

Carter is on a fact-finding mission to Darfur with an entourage of "Elders," including billionaire businessman Richard Branson and Graca Machel, the wife of former South African President Nelson Mandela, and South Africa's Archbishop Desmond Tutu.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this whole effort by Carter is pretty silly. From time to time, various political figures -- Jimmy Carter, Jesse Jackson, Jane Fonda -- take trips to foreign countries, proclaiming that if we all just talk together, then we can get along. These trips are almost always just political side shows and, as far as I know, none of these trips has ever accomplished anything real.

On this web site, whenever I describe these major world events, I always emphasize that they're being caused by attitudes and behaviors of large masses of people, entire generations of people, and that no politician can ever hope to have an effect.

That's certainly true of the Darfur war, as I've described repeatedly on this web site, starting with my first Darfur article, "Darfur genocide: The UN is completely irrelevant."

In fact, not only has the U.N. not halted the Darfur genocide, but the situation seems to get worse almost on a daily basis.

In a recent article, I summarized the recent generational history of Darfur, correcting some common misstatements in the mainstream media.

The most important confusions in the mainstream media are the names given to the various group. So here's a summary of the major groups, and how their names have changed since the 1970s:

The farmers became the Blacks or Africans in the 1980s, and became just Darfurians in 2000s. Today they're called the rebels, with the implication that they're rebelling against the oppressive Sudanese government.

The herders became the Arabs in the 1980s, became the Janjaweed militia in 1990s, and today are often referred to as "government (Sudanese) forces."

The war began in the 1970s as minor land disagreements between farmers and camel herders. The disagreements escalated slowly but surely through the 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s. The low-level violence became a full-fledged generational crisis war on February 26, 2003, when the "regeneracy" was triggered by a Darfurian raid on a police station.

Since then, the war has become increasingly genocidal on all sides, as always happens in generational crisis wars.

The was will continue until it reaches some kind of massive, explosive climax that brings things to a halt. (As an example, think of America's use of nuclear weapons in WW II.) There's no way to predict the exact nature of the climax, but one possibility will be some kind of massive slaughter.

The "West," as represented mostly by the U.N., the U.S., and Europe, with no understanding of what a generational crisis war is, have been extremely na�ve in it's portrayal of what's been going on.

Here are some mistakes that Western politicians and journalists make all the time:

They claim that the war began in 2004. Actually, it began with low-level violence in the 1970s.

They claim that it's the "Sudanese" vs the "Darfurians." Actually, it was something like that in 2004-5, but today the situation as become much more fragmented, as we'll see below, and Western politicians and journalists are completely bollixed.

They claim that the "Sudanese" side (as represented by the Janjaweed militias) is genocidal, and the "Darfurian" side as victims of genocide. Actually, as happens in every crisis war, it's becoming increasingly genocidal on all sides, and the Western politicians and media don't understand that, or are in denial about it.

Actually, the situation is becoming increasingly complex and increasingly unstable.

A big sign of this occurred early this week when a large group of 'rebels' launched a genocidal attack on a group African Union "peacekeepers."

Western groups are totally perplexed by this. The "rebels" are supposed to be good guys, and they shouldn't be massacring "peacekeepers." The West's entire world view of the Darfur war is totally screwed up now.

But the situation is even worse than that. According to a new analysis on pinr.org, both the "Arab" side and the "black rebel" side have split into warring ethnic groups. Here's a one-paragraph extract from the analysis, to give you a flavor:

"The black rebel movement was split from the beginning between the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (S.L.M./A.) and the Justice and Equality Movement (J.E.M.). The S.L.M./A. had the backing of the Fur, the largest of the black Muslim tribes in Darfur, through the leadership of Abdul Wahid al-Nur, as well as significant backing from the Zaghawa and Masalit tribes. Led by Khalil Ibrahim, the J.E.M. was a smaller, mostly Zaghawa operation made up of Islamists who were purged from the government in 1999. The group then received backing from the Chadian government and aligned itself with a separate rebel movement in Sudan's northeast, thus receiving support from Eritrea as well."

It's hard to know what the Western media and politicians are going to make of all this, once they get it figured out, assuming that they ever get it figured out.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, here's what's going on: The regeneracy was triggered on February 26, 2003, as described above. The word "regeneracy" is used because this is the point where an identity group's unity is "regenerated," for the first time since the end of the previous crisis war. Initially, it was just the Africans versus the Arabs, but as the years have passed and the war has become more and more genocidal, both of these sides have splintered further, and regeneracies of individual tribal and ethnic loyalties have also occurred.

Darfur versus Burma

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We've been discussing the situation in Burma (Myanmar) during the last couple of weeks.

Here's the question: Why is the Burmese government so violent with protesting / demonstrating citizens?

Are Burmese government officials all such psychopaths that they get enjoyment out of seeing blood pouring out of the heads of harmless monks after being hit with clubs? When someone applies for a job in the Burmese government, do they give him a battery of psychological tests, and reject him if he isn't totally sadistic?

If you want to understand how Generational Dynamics works, you have to be able to understand the minds of people who commit acts that seem to be monstrous. The fact is, if you're unable to understand why Hitler and his lieutenants felt that was they were doing was perfectly reasonable and necessary, then you also can't understand why President Roosevelt felt that what he was doing was perfectly reasonable and necessary.

And everything is always driven by the previous crisis war. The survivors of a crisis war spend their entire lives doing everything possible to make sure that their own children will never have to suffer anything so horrible.

In America's case, when WW II ended, the survivors believed (incorrectly) that the war could have been prevented if they'd stopped Hitler in 1935. After the war, the survivors adopted the 'Truman Doctrine,' making America the "Policemen of the World." That's why we found the Korean and Vietnam wars, and why we're in Iraq today.

In "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the "88 Generation" raise fears of new slaughter," I summarized the previous crisis wars for Burma, and they were mostly dominated by ethnic civil wars. Burma's last crisis war was the civil war ending in 1958. That was an extremely bloody, genocidal war among Burmese ethnic groups, and today's Burmese government is determined that it shouldn't happen again.

Furthermore, the Burmese officials look a few thousand miles to the west, and they see what's happening in Darfur today: a growing civil war among Sudan's ethnic groups.

The Burmese officials actually LIVED through a multi-ethnic war like the one going in on Darfur, and they know very well that no "peacekeeping mission" is going to stop the Darfur war.

People like Jimmy Carter, as well as US, UN and European officials must look like total buffoons to Burmese officials. I can just imagine them saying to one another, "Those guys must be idiots to think that they can just go to Darfur and talk to a few people, and end a multi-ethnic civil war involving millions of people."

So the Burmese officials believe that they have no choice. The protests and demonstrations HAVE to be stopped AT ALL COSTS, to prevent a recurrence of the 1950s genocidal crisis civil war, even if it means killing some monks. In fact, in the disturbed minds of the Burmese officials, it's either kill a few monks or allow a mass genocide. If YOU had to make that choice, which choice would YOU make?

In fact, Burma is about ten years behind Darfur.

Ten years ago, Darfar was in a generational Unraveling era. At that time, the Janjaweed militia were merely a police force in Darfur, and there was nothing more than low-level violence.

Burma is still in a generational Unraveling era today, which is why the the protests and demonstrations fizzled out -- and why they would have fizzled out anyway, even if the government hadn't resorted to violence. If Burmese officials had understood that, then they would have known that no violence was necessary at this time.

And if Jimmy Carter and other "peacekeeping officials" understood what a crisis war is, then they might stop tilting at windmills. (5-Oct-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Oct-07 President Jimmy Carter has near-altercation in Darfur

Darfur versus Burma

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Oct-07
President Jimmy Carter has near-altercation in Darfur