	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Oct-07
Students at Tehran University risk protest against Ahmadinejad

Web Log - October, 2007

Students at Tehran University risk protest against Ahmadinejad

When Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad spoke at Columbia University last month, the Columbia University president, Lee Bollinger introduced him by criticizing his denial of the Holocaust. "This makes you quite simply ridiculous. Mr President, you are exhibiting all the signs of a petty and cruel dictator," said Bollinger.

These comments by Bollinger were criticized in the Arab and in the Iranian press.

However, the criticisms never really rang true. Generally speaking, Arabs (who are Sunni Muslims) don't really like Ahmadinejad, who is Persian, who is fanatically Shia Muslim, and who has made it clear that he wants Iran to have hegemony over the entire Muslim Mideast, including the Arabian peninsula.

Iranians, on the other hand, don't much like Ahmadinejad anymore either, since the economy has been deteriorating, and because Ahmadinejad has infuriated many people with oppressive policies, such as arresting women whose headscarves don't cover enough of their heads.

Tehran University students demonstrating and protesting against Ahmadinejad <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: iht.com)</font>

Tehran University students demonstrating and protesting against Ahmadinejad (Source: iht.com)

The dislike is especially true of students, as would be expected from the point of view of Generational Dynamics. Iran is in a generational Awakening era, since only one generation has passed since the genocidal Iran/Iraq crisis war of the 1980s. Today's college-age generation is the first generation born after the war, and they are as rebellious against President Ahmadinejad today as American college students rebelled against Presidents Kennedy, Johnson and Nixon in the 1960s and 1970s.

So in that sense, it's not surprising that hundreds of students at Tehran University held anti-Ahmadinejad demonstrations on Monday, chanting: "Death to the dictator."

There were similar protests in December, 2006, by students at Amir Kabir Technical University, but those students were severely punished.

Thus, new protests occur rarely. But this kind of "generation gap" is a standard feature of generational Awakening eras, and so student protests always occur, and will continue to increase.

As I wrote in my July analysis of Iran and Ahmadinejad, Iran is a very dangerous wild card in international politics. One the one hand, young people are increasingly willing to demonstrate and protest against the older generation, the generation that lived through the 1980s war.

On the other hand, Ahmadinejad and the older generation clerics, who took part in the 1979 Iranian revolution, are increasingly alarmed by these protests and demonstrations, and they (mistakenly) see a potential military conflict with the west as a way to unite the country once more.

The easiest way to understand this conflict is to think of President Kennedy's situation in the early 1960s. As a World War II survivor, Kennedy was determined to prevent a world war against Communism, which is why he authorized military actions against Cuba and Vietnam. But growing student protests led to political problems in Kennedy's, Johnson's and Nixon's administrations.

Like Kennedy, Ahmadinejad came into power at the beginning of his country's Awakening era. The internal protests and demonstrations may force Ahmadinejad to overreact, and in some scenarios that could lead to war. (8-Oct-07) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Oct-07 Students at Tehran University risk protest against Ahmadinejad

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Oct-07
Students at Tehran University risk protest against Ahmadinejad