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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Oct-07
Review of recent international stories

Web Log - October, 2007

Review of recent international stories

France, Turkey and Pakistan in the news

It's time again for a summary of all the important international stories that I've been neglecting while I've been focusing on the deteriorating financial situation.

Incidentally, there's a potentially big financial story coming up, possibly as early as Thursday morning. Remember when I used to write a lot about the ABX credit derivatives. They fell sharply early in the year, leading to the Bear Stearns hedge fund collapse, and credit crisis. The ABX index stabilized over the summer.

However, it now turns out that ABX has been crashing like mad in the last few days. This may have repercussions very soon. And investors are nervous as hell anyway, because Friday is the 20th anniversary of the False Panic of 1987. Take care.

France: Sarkozy facing massive strikes on Thursday

Recall that when Nicolas Sarkozy won the election for President in May, he announced a very ambitious program to make France great again. The heart of his program was to eliminate the 35 hour restriction on the work week, and to eliminate some special pension regimes.

Well, the labor unions aren't happy, and they're anxious to prove to everyone that they're more powerful than Sarkozy is. The major confrontation begins on Thursday. 90% of all scheduled train service across France will be canceled. Other public service workers will be striking as well.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, France is becoming politically paralyzed. The same thing is happening in America, where the Congress can't get anything done. The same thing is happening in Japan, China, Israel, and other countries that fought in WW II as a crisis war.

This happens when the postwar generation (i.e., the Baby Boomer generation in this case) comes to power. Not having lived through a previous crisis war, they don't know how to govern, and so the government becomes paralyzed.

Let's see if Sarko can get anything done after this confrontation with the unions.

France: Sarkozy's wife dumps him

French President Nicolas Sarkozy and wife, former model Cécilia Sarkozy <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: telegraph.co.uk)</font>

French President Nicolas Sarkozy and wife, former model Cécilia Sarkozy (Source: telegraph.co.uk)

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has one more distraction: His wife is having an affair and is about to file for divorce.

But, ummmm, she may have a problem: Article 67 of the French Constitution says the following:

"The President of the Republic bears no legal responsibility for his acts carried out as President, with exceptions [these include high treason]. During his mandate the President may not be required to testify or become the object of any legal action before any jurisdiction or French administrative authority. He may not be the subject of investigation or prosecution."

So he can't become the object of any legal action including, presumably, a divorce action.

Vive la France!

Congress backs off on Turkish genocide vote

The plan had been to pass a non-binding resolution of Congress declaring that Turkey had committed the genocide of millions of Armenians in 1915, during World War I.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, I would certainly call it a "genocide," but then some would also call the WW I Battle of the Somme a genocide, where over a million British soldiers were killed, 20,000 on one day alone: July 1, 1916.

The Fire: Germany Under Bombardment, 1940-45

The Fire: Germany Under Bombardment, 1940-45

And then there are a number of Germans who would like to declare the Allied bombing of Dresden in WW II a "genocide."

So this game of identifying old genocides can be a dangerous one, and can backfire.

The Administration has been applying a lot of pressure to Congress to drop the measure, as it would infuriate the Turks, who are an important ally in the war in Iraq. And incidentally, this isn't a party line issue, as there are proponents among both Democrats and Republicans. But the pressure seems to be working, as many former proponents are now expressing the view that this isn't the time to insult an important ally.

Benazir Bhutto returns to Pakistan amid political chaos

President Pervez Musharraf may or may not still be President of Pakistan. He won the election a couple of weeks ago, but the decision won't be final until the Supreme Court decides that he was eligible to run for president in the first place.

Benazir Bhutto <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: dailytimes.com.pk)</font>

Benazir Bhutto (Source: dailytimes.com.pk)

In the midst of all this, former premier Benazir Bhutto is returning from exile on Thursday, under an agreement with Musharraf that he'll be President and she'll be Prime Minister. Bhutto has been in exile since the 1990s, when she was charged with massive corruption, and chose exile over jail. Her return now is begin greeted by millions of supporters, although it's not clear how long that support will last.

At a press conference in Dubai on Wednesday, Bhutto said: "Tomorrow (Thursday) at this time we will be on board the plane for Karachi, which is a day that I and all the people in Pakistan who love democracy and who believe in fundamental human rights have been waiting for. Pakistan’s future is at stake and I am going to Pakistan with a mission to see a peaceful transition to democracy. My return heralds for the people of Pakistan the turn of the wheel from dictatorship to democracy, from exploitation to empowerment, from violence to peace."

She said she wanted to create for the people of Pakistan a country "where they have opportunities for employment, economic well-being, the primacy of civilian rule and a society free of extremism."

Now, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's the last few words that are the most significant.

I've always expressed admiration for Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf and his Indian counterpart, India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Both Pakistan and India are nuclear powers, but these two leaders have engineered a remarkable détente that has prevented a conflict.

Musharraf, born 1943, and Singh, born 1932, are both survivors of World War II and the subsequent genocidal war between Pakistan and India over Kashmir and Jammu, a dispute that still seethes today, even though the United Nations partitioned the region into Indian and Pakistani regions in 1947.

The disappearance of either Musharraf or Singh would change the situation dramatically, as either one would likely be replaced by someone much younger, and much more confrontational. This is the kind of generational change that leads to new crisis wars.

With Bhutto coming into the picture, that may actually happen. When she says that she wants "a society free of extremism," she's referring to the freedom from the extremism of hardline Muslim radicals who have been setting off suicide bombs across the country. The most spectacular confrontation occurred in July, when over 106 died in an assault on a radical mosque in Islamabad, just down the street from Musharraf's office.

Even more serious is that radical al-Qaeda terrorists control what is practically a country within a country, in the lawless Waziristan region of northwest Pakistan. This region, on the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, is probably where Osama bin Laden is living these days.

According to a a new report in the LA Times, this region is becoming increasingly powerful and dangerous, and is the principal supplier of trained terrorists to Europe.

This is something that I've written about a number of times. Young men who are citizens of European countries, but whose parents emigrated from Pakistan, are turning to al-Qaeda clerics on the Pakistan/Afghanistan border, starting with an internet relationship. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the young men adopt a "Hero/Prophet" relationship with the clerics, and usually travel to Pakistan for terrorist training. With the clerics acting as "Prophets," the young men decide to become "Heroes" by committing altruistic suicide -- killing themselves for the good of the cause.

Musharraf has not been successful in stopping this activity in Waziristan, but the situation hasn't exploded either.

Benazir Bhutto was born in 1953 and is like America's Baby Boomers -- arrogant, narcissistic, and unable to govern. If she comes to power, she will be much more confrontational with extremists than Musharraf, and will make more mistakes, and the situation could spiral out of control into civil war in Pakistan. (18-Oct-07) Permanent Link
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