Casualties are down sharply in Iraq. - 31-Oct-07 - Generational Dynamics

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What Iraqi Civil War?: Early in 2003, I predicted that there would be no popular uprising against the Americans, and that there would be no civil war. After the overthrow of Saddam, I said that an Iraqi civil war was impossible. Despite the constant near-hysteria of the politicians, journalists and high-priced analysts, I've been right so far. Here's why. (09-Apr-04)
Anti-Shi'ite Terror Attacks in Iraq, Pakistan: So far, Sunni and Shi'ite leaders in Iraq aren't taking the bait. (2-Mar-04)
Terrorist suicide bombings in Iraq may backfire against terrorists: During an awakening period, terrorist acts cause masses of people to shrink from more violence. (19-Aug-03)

However, nobody is claiming that the problem has been solved. After all, if American forces can "surge," then so can al-Qaeda forces, and they may "surge" to provide a new rise in deaths, even if it's only temporary, in order to gain a public relations victory.

However, casualties have been falling for several months now, so a trend is clear. Sunni insurgent groups have turned against al-Qaeda in Iraq, and are now cooperating with the Americans. Shia groups, including the Mehdi militias, are under ceasefire, by order of Muqtada al-Sadr, and they're now cooperating with the Americans too.

This situation is extremely gratifying to me personally, and is a spectacular validation of Generational Dynamics theory for several reasons:

Because I got this prediction exactly right from the beginning, in 2003.

Because everybody else got it wrong. Pro-war or anti-war, Republican or Democrat, nobody predicted anything remotely like what I predicted, based on Generational Dynamics theory, and I got it right and they got it wrong.
You wouldn't BELIEVE the amount of grief and vitriol I've been given over this, even to the point of being called names.
Since the beginning I've asserted, based on Generational Dynamics theory, that a civil war in Iraq was impossible, and that any such fighting would fizzle out. That's exactly what's happened, and people who claimed otherwise have now been shown to be wrong.

Because this is GOOD news. On this web site, I've stated many Generational Dynamics predictions -- on the Mideast, Darfur, China, Burma (Myanmar), Japan, global finance, and so forth -- and they've all come true or are trending true. But all of those are BAD news. The reason that this particular prediction is so spectacular is because it's GOOD news for a change.

I know that I'm going to get more grief for writing this article, but after years of frustration, this situation is really gratifying.

I'll stop there except to thank the ever growing readership of this web site. I'm still keeping up with answering e-mail comments and questions, though it sometimes takes me a few days to get back. If you have any questions or comments, you can use e-mail or one of the little "Comment" forms.

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-Oct-07
Casualties are down sharply in Iraq.

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-Oct-07 Casualties are down sharply in Iraq.

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-Oct-07
Casualties are down sharply in Iraq.