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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Nov-07
Chief of MI5 says that al-Qaeda is recruiting British teenagers

Web Log - November, 2007

Chief of MI5 says that al-Qaeda is recruiting British teenagers

Describing "the most immediate and acute peacetime threat in the 98-year history" of MI5, Director General Jonathan Evans gave a speech on Monday on the UK's threat from al-Qaeda.

MI5 Director Jonathan Evans

MI5 Director Jonathan Evans

A major point was that al-Qaeda is recruiting young teenagers:

"As a country, we are rightly concerned to protect children from exploitation in other areas. We need to do the same in relation to violent extremism. As I speak, terrorists are methodically and intentionally targeting young people and children in this country. They are radicalising, indoctrinating and grooming young, vulnerable people to carry out acts of terrorism. This year, we have seen individuals as young as 15 and 16 implicated in terrorist-related activity."

This is consistent with the speech given last year by Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, the previous Director-General of MI5:

"And, chillingly, we see the results here. Young teenagers are being groomed to be suicide bombers. We are aware of numerous plots to kill people and to damage our economy. What do I mean by numerous? Five? Ten? No, nearer....... thirty that we know of. These plots often have links back to Al-Qaida in Pakistan and through those links Al-Qaida gives guidance and training to its largely British foot soldiers here on an extensive and growing scale. And it is not just the UK of course. Other countries also face a new terrorist threat: from Spain to France to Canada and Germany."

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This year, Evans made it clear that the problem is spreading, rather than being contained:

"You may recall that in her speech this time last year, my predecessor, Eliza Manningham-Buller, pointed out that this country was facing an increasing threat from Al Qaida-inspired terrorism. When she spoke, MI5 had identified around 1,600 individuals who we believed posed a direct threat to national security and public safety, because of their support for terrorism. That figure today would be at least 2,000. This growth, which has driven the increasingly strong and coordinated government response, is partly because our coverage of the extremist networks is now more thorough. But it is also because there remains a steady flow of new recruits to the extremist cause.

And it is important that we recognise an uncomfortable truth: terrorist attacks we have seen against the UK are not simply random plots by disparate and fragmented groups. The majority of these attacks, successful or otherwise, have taken place because Al Qaida has a clear determination to mount terrorist attacks against the United Kingdom. This remains the case today, and there is no sign of it reducing. So although MI5 and the police are investigating plots, and thwarting them, on a continuing basis, we do not view them in isolation. Al Qaida is conducting a deliberate campaign against us. It is the expression of a hostility towards the UK which existed long before September 11, 2001. It is evident in the wills and letters left behind by actual and would-be bombers. And it regularly forms part of Al Qaida's broadcast messages."

The successful July 7, 2005, London subway bombing has been a powerful tool for the Islamist radicals in recruiting young Muslims in England to form terror cells for further terrorist acts.

As I wrote last year, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, many of Britain's young Muslims have set up a "Hero/Prophet" relationship with the radical clerics in Pakistan. This kind of relationship is the visceral basis by means of which new genocidal crisis wars begin. There's an emotional connection between the elder Prophet generation (the idealistic generation born after the last crisis war) and the impatient college age Hero generation (the soldiers who will be fighting the new crisis war). It's becoming increasingly clear that the young British Muslims are particularly connected to the resurging al-Qaeda leadership on the Afghan-Pakistan border.

This is exactly the same region in northwest Pakistan that is completely controlled by al-Qaeda and Taliban militants, causing President Pervez Musharraf to declare martial law in the country.

But now, even the Pakistani-based "Prophet" culture is expanding to multiple nations, according to Evans:

"Another development in the last 12 months has been the extent to which the conspiracies here are being driven from an increasing range of overseas countries.

Over the last five years much of the command, control and inspiration for attack planning in the UK has derived from Al Qaida's remaining core leadership in the tribal areas of Pakistan - often using young British citizens to mount the actual attack. But worryingly, we have more recently seen similar processes emerging elsewhere.

For instance, there is no doubt now that Al Qaida in Iraq aspires to promote terrorist attacks outside Iraq. There is no doubt that there is training activity and terrorist planning in East Africa - particularly in Somalia - which is focused on the UK. And there is no doubt that the extension of what one might call the 'Al Qaida franchise' to other groups in other countries - notably in Algeria - has created a significant upsurge in terrorist violence in these countries. It is no coincidence that the first suicide bombing in Algeria followed the creation of the new 'Al Qaida in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb.'

This sort of extension of the Al Qaida brand to new parts of the Middle East and beyond poses a further threat to us in this country because it provides Al Qaida with access to new centres of support which it can motivate and exploit, including in its campaign against the UK.

Since 9/11, there have been a number of examples of serious Al Qaida-related terrorist activity in Europe. But in the last 12 months we have seen an increase in attack planning across the continent. This summer alone we saw many terrorist arrests, including those in Germany, Denmark and Austria. It is too early to assess with confidence what all this means but certainly, we can see that the threat from Al Qaida related terrorism goes well beyond the UK."

This concept of the al-Qaeda "brand name" is one we've written about several times, as al-Qaeda-sanctioned suicide bombings occur in other countries. The al-Qaeda linked groups in other countries are not under the control of al-Qaeda in Pakistan, but they communicate over the internet, and share technology and planning.

In reporting on the Jonathan Evans' speech, the BBC reporter described the speech while standing in front of a screen with displays of MI5 software to keep track of the thousands of suspects, cells and plots:

BBC reporter in front of a screen displaying MI5 software for tracking suspected terrorists <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

BBC reporter in front of a screen displaying MI5 software for tracking suspected terrorists (Source: BBC)

That such software is needed is indicated by Evans' description of the difficulty in obtaining the proper intelligence:

"It is important to recognise too that intelligence will rarely provide a complete picture. It gives us pieces of a whole, which then require assessment and interpretation. It helps improve our chances of success. And as we have seen in more than 200 terrorist convictions in the UK since 9/11, it does save lives. But it will not in itself provide certainty.

There is, however, a further difficulty in relation to intelligence work against the current threat, and it is one that I think has led to a degree of misunderstanding about MI5's work.

The networks we investigate are not the hard-edged cells typical of some other terrorist groups. Even though it may only be a handful of people who actually carry out a violent attack, it is now rare to see extremist groups acting entirely in isolation.

So the deeper we investigate, the more we know about the networks. And the more we know, the greater the likelihood that, when an attack or attempted attack does occur, my Service will have some information on at least one of the perpetrators. And in a sense this is a benefit. Why? First, because it means we can move more swiftly from intelligence to arrests. It means we can provide an informed assessment for the police, emergency services and Government, of the context of an attack, the likely depth of the conspiracy, and most importantly, the potential leads to follow to ensure that culprits can be arrested. And second, it demonstrates how the counter-terrorist net that the British intelligence community and our liaison partners have strung across the globe is working."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, al-Qaeda by itself is not a major source of danger except, of course, to the thousands or tens of thousands of innocent people who are killed by suicide bombings and other terrorist attacks.

The real danger from al-Qaeda is as we're seeing in Pakistan: Frequent terrorist acts polarize the population and generate small conflicts that can easily become large ethnic or religious conflicts. This is the danger in Pakistan today. (7-Nov-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Nov-07 Chief of MI5 says that al-Qaeda is recruiting British teenagers

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Nov-07
Chief of MI5 says that al-Qaeda is recruiting British teenagers