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Bhutto has called for thousands of her supporters to demonstrations and protests on Friday.
If she succeeds in inciting large crowds of Pakistanis to call for an immediate end to President Pervez Musharraf's state of emergency, then she will have achieved a big political victory.
Indeed, Musharraf's actions appear to have been getting harsher, and dozens of Bhutto supporters have now been jailed. Furthermore, officials in Musharraf's administration have indicated that they won't permit the demonstration to occur.
So far, I still don't see any massive Pakistani upheaval against the martial law restrictions so far. There have been lawyers in penguin suits protesting the restrictions on courts; there have been sporadic student demonstrations, not generally supported by the mass of students.
This makes sense to me. Whatever results Musharraf's actions have for the state of democracy in Pakistan, most people are very concerned about the rise in Taliban and al-Qaeda violence throughout the country, and the fact that the Taliban is now in complete control of the northwest provinces in Waziristan, on the border with Afghanistan. Bhutto herself narrowly escaped death last month when her procession was attacked by a suicide bomber.
So the results of Friday's pro-Bhutto demonstrations and protests can
have a significant impact, and may go either way: A poor showing may
indicate support for Musharraf's proclamation, and a good showing may
indicate that Musharraf's in trouble. From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, the turnout will be an indicator of the
near-term stability of Pakistan itself.
(8-Nov-07)
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