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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Nov-07
Hamas fires on civilian Palestinian crowd commemorating Yasser Arafat

Web Log - November, 2007

Hamas fires on civilian Palestinian crowd commemorating Yasser Arafat

Eight people were killed when Hamas gunmen fired into the crowd.

Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians carrying yellow Fatah flags pay tribute to Yasser Arafat. Later, at bottom, Fatah supporter is dragged and beaten by Hamas. <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians carrying yellow Fatah flags pay tribute to Yasser Arafat. Later, at bottom, Fatah supporter is dragged and beaten by Hamas. (Source: BBC)

Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians crowded into Gaza city on Monday to pay tribute to Yasser Arafat. This was the first major demonstration by Fatah in Gaza since the entire Mideast was shocked by Hamas' stunning victory of Fatah in Gaza.

Each side is blaming the other for starting the violence, though the battle was unequal, with the Fatah supporters throwing stones and the Hamas forces firing guns and throwing stun grenades. By the end, eight Palestinians were killed, and over 130 were wounded.

According to some witnesses, the trouble started when some in the crowd through stones at the Hamas forces, shouting "Shiite, Shiite," accusing them of being a proxy for Iran and its ally Syria.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there are several significant things about this development.

First, something I've mentioned before -- the Palestinians don't seem to have anything like the pure venomous hatred of Israelis that they have for each other.

This is something that I look for in evaluating events today. Mainstream news media tend to completely confuse political fighting with genocidal violence, and lump them all together. So, for example, in Pakistan these last few days, I've seen lots of political conflict, including lawyers in penguin suits running around and demonstrating like college students, but almost no real violence.

As I've said before, if the Palestinians were ready to take on Israel, they'd pour through that security wall separating Israel from the Palestinian territories and start slitting some throats. But I've seen nothing like that.

However, what happened on Monday between Fatah supporters and Hamas. To call a Palestinian a "Shiite" is a venomous epithet, especially if it represents a widespread attitude, and Hamas forces exhibited extremely violent behavior toward Fatah supporters, as you can see from the third picture above.

Second, the "Shiite" epithet is also a direct insult to Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

As I wrote in my July analysis of Iran and Ahmadinejad, Iran is a very dangerous wild card in international politics. Ahmadinejad has plans to gain hegemony over the entire Mideast, including the Arabian peninsula. To that end, he's been funding Hizbollah in Lebanon, and terrorist Palestinian groups, including Hamas.

The problem is that the Arabian peninsula is Sunni Muslim, while Iran is Shia Muslim, and there's no way in Allah's heaven that the Arabs are ever going to submit to hegemony by Shiites.

Thus, ironically, this split between Fatah and Hamas Palestinians is more offensive to Iran than it is to Israel.

When the Mideast Roadmap to Peace was announced in May, 2003, calling for side-by-side Palestinian and Israeli states, I predicted that the Roadmap would never succeed, and that the death of Yasser Arafat, when it occurred, would trigger a generational change leading to a new genocidal war between Arabs and Jews. This is based on a Generational Dynamics analysis of the situation following the genocidal war of the late 1940s, when Palestine was partitioned and the state of Israel was created.

I said at the time that the situation would degenerate into war, probably within two years after Arafat's death. Monday's rally was for the third anniversary of Arafat's death, so my timeline was off, as is often the case when I speculate on a timeline, but the end result hasn't changed. Since Arafat's death, life in the Palestinian territories, especially Gaza, has been increasing violent and degenerate, with the vast majority of the citizens unemployed. The vitriolic hatreds between Hamas and Fatah continue to deepen, a violent civil war, followed by a war between Arabs and Jews, cannot be too far off. (13-Nov-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Nov-07 Hamas fires on civilian Palestinian crowd commemorating Yasser Arafat

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Nov-07
Hamas fires on civilian Palestinian crowd commemorating Yasser Arafat