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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Dec-07
Pakistan on high alert after massive terrorist bomb kills 50 worshippers

Web Log - December, 2007

Pakistan on high alert after massive terrorist bomb kills 50 worshippers

Al-Qaeda and Taliban terrorists from Pakistan's Tribal Regions are the likely perpetrators of a suicide bomb attack Friday on a mosque, packed with people celebrating the Eid al-Adha festival, one of the holiest days in the Muslim calendar.

Official map of Pakistan, with the addition of the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), highlighting Swat Valley <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: pakistan.gov.pk)</font>

Official map of Pakistan, with the addition of the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), highlighting Swat Valley (Source: pakistan.gov.pk)

It's thought that the probably target of the attack was a close associate of President Pervez Musharraf, Aftab Sherpao, who survived the blast. However, this is the second attack on Sherpao this year.

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The attack took place in Sherpao's home town, near Peshawar and the Tribal Areas border. The Tribal Areas are independent regions that are not part of Pakistan, but are administered by Pakistan. Sunni al-Qaeda and Taliban terrorists, including Osama bin Laden, are hiding out there, out of reach of either the Americans or the Pakistanis.

There have been about a dozen suicide bombing attacks in Pakistan in the last six months, mostly in the Swat Valley in the NorthWest Frontier Province, but also reaching the capital city of Islamabad itself, with the Red Mosque attack on July 11.

Musharraf imposed emergency rule and suspended the Constitution on Pakistan on November 3. He cited a "downward trend" in Pakistani society, saying that "with all the facts available to me, consider that inaction at this moment is suicide for Pakistan, and I cannot allow this country to commit suicide."

Musharraf has been under enormous international pressure to end the state of emergency, including a humiliating suspension of Pakistan itself as a member of the British Commonwealth of Nations.

Since then, Musharraf has complied with many of the demands of the Commonwealth members: He's given up his military position as Chief of Army staff; he's removed curbs on media broadcasts; and, last week on Saturday, he lifted the state of emergency, saying that the threat had been contained. "The wave of terrorism and militancy has been stopped under the emergency and there has been considerable improvement in the overall situation."

Friday's new suicide bombing has shocked the nation, as the time comes for the January 8 election, which the terrorists have vowed to disrupt.

And it's also a time when al-Qaeda is increasing turning away from Iraq and Afghanistan, and particularly targeting Pakistan, according to US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, in a press conference on Friday:

"Well, first of all I think that -- I heard just this morning, in fact, that the number of fighters coming across the border [into Afghanistan] is down about 40 percent. Al Qaeda right now seems to have turned its face toward Pakistan and attacks on the Pakistani government and Pakistani people. The Pakistani army has had some success in their counterinsurgency effort in Swat. We are beginning a dialogue with the new chief of staff of the Pakistani army in terms of how we can help them do a better job in counterinsurgency through both training and equipment. So I would say that right now, at least, there is no question that some of the areas in the frontier area have become areas where al Qaeda has reestablished itself, but so far we haven't seen any significant consequence of that in Afghanistan itself. I would say, with respect to Osama bin Laden, that we are continuing the hunt."

Thus, Pakistan continues to become increasingly dangerous. Indeed, Pakistan is probably the most dangerous place in the world today, the region most likely to trigger a world war.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 6-Nov-2007

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 3

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

Six weeks ago, I raised the "conflict risk level" for Kashmir from 2 (medium risk of war within 6 months) to 3 (high risk of war within six months), to reflect the increasing chances of war between Pakistan and India.

There are many scenarios that could lead to war. For example,

A weakened Musharaff becomes more confrontational with the militants, or he's deposed in a coup and his successor, being younger, is more confrontational.

The resulting confrontation leads to regional fighting within Pakistan.

The growing violence leads to war between ethnic groups that spreads to India.

Alternatively, the confrontation leads to conflict between Hindus and Muslims in Kashmir, forcing both India and Pakistan to move to protect their interests.

Pakistan has only recently commemorated the 60th anniversary of the bloodbath that accompanied the Partition of the Indian sub-continent into India and Pakistan, when Britain withdrew control in 1947.

President Musharraf lived through that bloodbath and survived it, and his major goal in life, still, is to make sure that nothing like that every happens again. However, people in his generation are almost gone now, replaced by younger people born after the war following Partition, and these young people are not afraid of a new war.

Generational Dynamics predicts that there'll be a new genocidal war between Pakistan and India, primarily along the Muslim/Hindu fault line. What will trigger this war and when it will occur cannot be predicted, but for the next few weeks and months, Pakistan's and Musharraf's fate are closely tied together. (23-Dec-07) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Dec-07 Pakistan on high alert after massive terrorist bomb kills 50 worshippers

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Dec-07
Pakistan on high alert after massive terrorist bomb kills 50 worshippers