Benazir Bhutto killed by suicide bomber after election rally in Rawalpindi - 27-Dec-07 - Generational Dynamics

Analysts have recently been calling Pakistan the most dangerous region on earth, and that view seemed to be exactly right on Thursday when opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was killed by a suicide bomber as she was leaving a political rally. The assassination occurred in Rawalpindi, near the country's capital, Islamabad. At least 20 other people were killed. No one has claimed credit, but the al-Qaeda is suspected.

Bhutto was favored to win the office of Prime Minister in elections on January 8. Bhutto is well-known internationally, and the scenario that Western countries have been hoping for was that Bhutto as PM would work closely with President Pervez Musharraf, and that between them they would restore stability to the country.

Official map of Pakistan, with the addition of the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas), highlighting Swat Valley (Source: pakistan.gov.pk)

Musharraf, born in 1942, is a Mohajir, one of millions of Urdu speaking Sunni Muslim Indians who migrated into Pakistan following Partition in 1947. He heads the Mohajir Qaumi Movement (MQM - Migrant National Movement) political party. This party changed its name to the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (United National Movement) in the 1990s.

[Note: A correspondent in Pakistan has informed me that Musharraf does NOT head MQM. I will revise this paragraph and the paragraph below about Nawaz Sharif, when I get this issue straightened out.]

Bhutto, born in 1953, is Sindhi, a Sindhi-speaking ethnic group that traces its roots back to Persia (Iran) and Shia Islam in Sindh province.

There has been low-level violence between Mohajirs and Sindhis after Mohajirs flooded into Sindh provice in the 1950s, mostly settling in Karachi, forcing the less-wealthy Sindhis to relocate to rural areas surrounding Karachi.

The early Sindhi hero was Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Benazir's father. In 1966, Zulfikar created the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), which Benazir now heads. Zulfikar became President of Pakistan for several years in the 1970s, until his government was overthrown in 1977, and he was executed by hanging on April 4, 1979.

Pakistan

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Pakistanis are increasingly joining forces with al-Qaeda: The contrast with the Iraq war and al-Qaeda in Iraq is instructive.... (30-Dec-07)

Benazir Bhutto killed by suicide bomber after election rally in Rawalpindi: Here's what to watch for in the next few hours and days.... (27-Dec-07)

Pakistan on high alert after massive terrorist bomb kills 50 worshippers: Al-Qaeda and Taliban terrorists from Pakistan's Tribal Regions... (23-Dec-07)

Pakistan is suspended from the British Commonwealth of Nations: Once upon a time, long, long ago, there was a British Empire.... (24-Nov-07)

Sunni/Shia violence increasing in Pakistan tribal areas as Taliban gains strength: The Pakistan army is massing for an assault against Taliban in Northwest... (19-Nov-07)

Tense Pakistani president Musharaff calls for elections by January 9: After the embarassingly small turnout by Benazir Bhutto supporters on Friday,... (12-Nov-07)

Risk of Pakistan meltdown increases as Musharaff clamps down: We're raising the "conflict risk index" for Kashmir from 2 (medium risk) to 3 (high risk).... (6-Nov-07)

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf declares martial law and a state of emergency.: In a highly dramatic televised speech to the nation and the world,... (3-Nov-07)

Benazir Bhutto narrowly escapes death from suicide bombers: Pakistan is adrift and at a crossroads today, as its people wonder where to go next.... (21-Oct-07)

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Pakistan's High Court hands President Musharraf a humiliating defeat: Musharraf's government is in question at a time when al-Qaeda violence in surging in Pakistan.... (21-Jul-07)

Pakistan violence from al-Qaeda and Taliban is increasing: Al-Qaeda and Taliban militants on Afghan border are seeking revenge for Red Mosque attack.... (16-Jul-07)

Pakistan: Over 106 dead in spectacular assault on radical mosque in Islamabad: Radical students hoped to spark an Islamic revolution against Musharraf.... (12-Jul-07)

Riots in Karachi, Pakistan, threaten Musharraf's presidency: Thirty people were killed and hundreds were injured on Saturday... (13-May-07)

Pakistan's President Musharraf faces major crisis : The remarkable d�tente between India and Pakistan may go down with Musharraf. ... (18-Mar-07)

Al-Qaeda resurging in Afghanistan and Pakistan: Al-Qaeda's greatest threat is to Britain and Europe.... (19-Feb-07)

India claims Pakistan government agency perpetrated the Mumbai railroad bombings: India has promised to show potentially explosive evidence to Pakistan.... (1-Oct-06)

Tensions build as Pakistan cracks down on extremists after London bombings: In Kashmir, a car bomb that kills and wounds dozens, including children,... (21-Jul-05)

"Koran in toilet" rumor is uniting Muslims around the world: From Gaza to Indonesia, Muslims are shouting "Death to America."... (15-May-05)

Pakistan "Black Day" protests fail: Continuing a worldwide trend of increased militarization and police power, President Pervez Musharraf... (02-Jan-05)

China's "sacred responsibility" is to stop Taiwan independence by force: A national defense white paper issued Monday by China threatens... (28-Dec-04)

An eerie parallel between Pakistan and Israel: Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has proposed a Kashmir peace plan which, like the Mideast "Roadmap to Peace," has no chance of succeeding.... (29-Oct-04)

Massive terrorist bombings yesterday in Pakistan, Iraq and Egypt cause hundreds of casualties across the Mideast in a single day: The Pakistan government has ordered a ban on all public gatherings,... (8-Oct-04)

New Islamic terrorist group claims credit for Bangladesh bombing leading to massive unrest and further violence: Like Pakistan, Bangladesh is overwhelmingly Muslim but still has excellent relations with the U.S.... (25-Aug-04)

Beheadings part of increasing conflict level throughout Mideast: The level of conflict is increasing throughout the Mideast, from Gaza to Pakistan, from Saudi Arabia to Uzbekistan. (23-Jun-2004)

Anti-Shi'ite Terror Attacks in Iraq, Pakistan: So far, Sunni and Shi'ite leaders in Iraq aren't taking the bait. (2-Mar-04)

Thursday's assassination of Benazir Bhutto thus has the potential to lead to an explosive situation.

Another opposition leader, former President Nawaz Sharif, whom Musharraf overthrew in 1999, will now become more prominent. Sharif is a conservative Muslim and is ethnically Punjabi, the most powerful ethnic group in Pakistan, and a group that formerly have been strong supporters of Musharraf.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Pakistan is in a generational Crisis era. Most of the survivors of the genocidal bloodbath following the Partition of the Indian sub-continent in 1947 are now gone, with Musharraf himself being the most prominent exception. Younger generations, born after Partition, have no fear of the horrors of another ethnic war, and al-Qaeda has indicated that it will trigger such a war if it can.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 6-Nov-2007

W. Europe

Arab Israeli

Russia Caucasus

Kashmir

China

North Korea

Financial

Bird flu

Key:

1=Low risk 2=yellow

2=Med

3=High 4=black

4=Active

Pakistan is possibly the most dangerous region in the world today. On November 6, in my little conflict risk graphic, I raised the "conflict risk level" for Kashmir from 2 (medium risk of war within 6 months) to 3 (high risk of war within six months).

Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a new genocidal war on the Indian subcontinent. Components will include war between Muslim Pakistan and Hindu/Sikh India, and war among various ethnic groups that cross country boundaries. Such a war would undoubtedly become a nuclear war, as both India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons. As Pakistan appears to become increasingly chaotic, this war is coming closer. (27-Dec-07) Permanent Link
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Benazir Bhutto killed by suicide bomber after election rally in Rawalpindi

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Dec-07 Benazir Bhutto killed by suicide bomber after election rally in Rawalpindi

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Dec-07
Benazir Bhutto killed by suicide bomber after election rally in Rawalpindi