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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Jan-08
Iranian speedboats threaten to blow up US ships in Gulf of Hormuz

Web Log - January, 2008

Iranian speedboats threaten to blow up US ships in Gulf of Hormuz

Question: Why did Iran do it?

Map of Gulf of Hormuz where incident took place <font face=Arial size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Map of Gulf of Hormuz where incident took place (Source: BBC)

Five Iranian speedboats approached US Navy ships operating in the Gulf of Hormuz on Sunday.

They approached at high speed and, in a radio transmission, said, "I am coming at you. You will explode in a couple of minutes."

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The US ships were just about to fire on the Iranian speedboats when they suddenly turned away, ending the confrontation.

The Pentagon has released a video of the confrontation, and it can be seen on the BBC web site.

The U.S. has called the confrontation "provocative and dangerous."

Iran played down the event, calling it an "ordinary occurrence," saying that, "this... happens for the two sides every once in a while and, after the identification of the two sides, the issue is resolved."

So what the heck was this? Why did the Iranians do it?

One possibility is that it was done by rogue Iranian forces, although no one is claiming that. The speedboats are actually thought to be from Iran's Revolutionary Guards, which the US has designated as a terror organization.

In fact, this kind of thing this kind of bellicose action is quite consistent with mainstream Iranian policy, according to the lengthy analysis of Iranian policy that I wrote last July.

My best guess for Ahmadinejad's motivation of this attack is as follows:

The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran appears to me to be assuming mythic proportions in the radical Muslim community. At that time, a violent student-led overthrew the Western-aligned government of Iran and installed a hardline religious Muslim government.

It's become an important symbol for al-Qaeda, who would like to see it repeated in other countries. They tried it in Iraq, and they're trying it now in Pakistan. (As predicted, it failed in Iraq, which is in a generational Awakening era, but it or something like it will succeed in Pakistan, which is in a generational Crisis era.)

What's less obvious is that Ahmadinejad and the hardline Iranian mullahs would like to see a repeat of something like the 1979 revolution in Iran. If they could provoke a military strike from Israel or the US, then (the fantasy goes) the "spirit of the revolution" will be rekindled, national unity and a national zeal for Islamic purity will be restored. Sunday's confrontation might well have had that intention.

But there's no chance it will have the desired effect on the Iranian people. Iran is in a generational Awakening era and, just like America in the 1960s, it's a time of a "generation gap," and anti-government riots and demonstrations. Just as the students in the 1960s blamed the government for the Vietnam war, today's Iranian students would blame the Iranian government for any military confrontation with Israel or the US.

On a related subject, MEMRI reports the following interesting stuff:

"Ahmadinejad Gov't Backs Down From Islamic Dress Code Enforcement

Reports in the Iranian media are indicating that in the run-up to the March 2008 parliamentary elections, the government of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is trying to renounce its responsibility for the campaign to enforce the Islamic dress code and public order.

The government is claiming that the police, who are implementing the campaign, are not directly accountable to the government and have not yet presented a plan of action to it for approval.

The dress code enforcement policy, which is supported by Ahmadinejad's spiritual mentor Ayatollah Taqi Mesbah-e Yazdi and Ayatollah Nori Hamdani, has been implemented by police in many public places as a show of strength by the Ahmadinejad government."

An obvious criminal at large on the streets of Tehran (from April 2007) <font size=-2>(Source: france24.com)</font>

An obvious criminal at large on the streets of Tehran (from April 2007) (Source: france24.com)

This has been an absolutely hilarious story from the time it first started last April. (See "Iranian police swoop down on women with loose headscarves.") Just as there was a "women's lib" movement during America's last Awakening era, in the 1960s, there's also a similar movement beginning in Iran.

Young women have been protesting against the government by wearing hot fashions and loose headscarves. This is NOT in the spirit of the 1979 Iranian revolution. So Ahmadinejad has been rounding up women in loose headscarves and hauling them up to jail. Can you believe this? It cracks me up every time I read about it. It's bad enough having one woman angry at you, but Ahmadinejad has probably managed to piss off every young woman in the country.

So it's not surprising to me that we're seeing news that Ahmadinejad is backing down. He never stood a chance with this.

However, these stories are not unrelated.

The point is that there IS an important connection between the loose headscarf story and Sunday's confrontation in the gulf of Hormuz.

The hardline Iranian mullahs are not very happy with the hot, stylish clothing and loose headscarves being worn by young Iranian women. Nothing like this would have happened just after the 1979 revolution, when the spirit of Islamic law was high. The naval confrontation is quite likely an attempt by the Iranian government to frighten young Iranians -- especially young Iranian women -- into returning to the hardline ways of Islamic law. But anyone who knows anything at all about women (which includes almost everyone but me) knows that there isn't a snowflake's chance in hell that that plan will work. (9-Jan-08) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Jan-08 Iranian speedboats threaten to blow up US ships in Gulf of Hormuz

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Jan-08
Iranian speedboats threaten to blow up US ships in Gulf of Hormuz