Dynamics
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Generational Dynamics |
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President Bush's new Mideast peace initiative has a zero chance of success.
At least 18 people are dead and 50 wounded, resulting from an incursion of Israeli forces into Gaza on Tuesday, in an attempt to destroy a house used to fire rockets at southern Israel.
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One of those killed in the exchange of gunfire was the younger son of Hamas leader Mahmoud Zahar, whose oldest son was killed several years ago by Israeli troops. Hamas responded with a heavy barrage of missiles fired at Israeli cities, injuring a mother and two small children. On Wednesday, there was more violence.
This is the bloodiest violence in Gaza since the fighting last June between the two Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas. But except for the degree of the fighting, for Gaza it's really a typical day: Gaza rockets strike Israel, Israeli forces strike Hamas, Fatah and Hamas strike each other.
Gaza war heads toward cease-fire, while violence surges in Sri Lanka:
Thousands of civilians' lives are at risk by army attacking terrorists responsible for suicide bombings....
(19-Jan-2009)
In Gaza and Sri Lanka, war slides into genocide.:
Both wars are getting increasingly meaner and nastier....
(6-Jan-2009)
Israel begins ground invasion into Gaza:
The region appears to be teetering on the edge of wider war...
(3-Jan-2009)
Israel declares "war to the bitter end" and "all-out war" against Hamas in Gaza:
The rhetoric indicates an extremely dangerous situation....
(30-Dec-2008)
Israel's rocket attack on Gaza opens continues a week of sharp escalation:
Hundreds of Palestinians were killed or injured Saturday,...
(27-Dec-2008)
Palestinian opinion shifts toward greater confrontation with Israel:
A Khalil Shikaki poll shows increasing acceptance of violence against Israel...
(24-Mar-08)
Violence in Gaza escalates significantly as Israel contemplates an invasion:
American warships are off the Lebanon coast to promote "regional stability."...
(1-Mar-08)
Suicide bombing in Israel blamed on the Gaza border opening:
Although Egypt finally closed the border on Sunday,...
(5-Feb-08)
Egypt's failure to close the Gaza border further destabilizes the region.:
Changing events brings Israelis, Palestinians and Egyptians into further confrontation and conflict....
(26-Jan-08)
In dramatic scene, 60,000 Gazans pour into Egypt through holes blasted through border wall:
Euphoric Gazans go shopping, bring back food, fuel and fertilizer....
(24-Jan-08)
Israeli blockade of Gaza triggers protests against Egypt:
Angry Gazans stormed the Rafah crossing into Egypt on Tuesday,...
(22-Jan-08)
Violence continues in Gaza as Israel kills 18 to stop rocket attacks:
President Bush's new Mideast peace initiative has a zero chance of success....
(17-Jan-08)
Tony Blair compares the Mideast peace process to the Northern Ireland peace process:
Generational Dynamics illuminates when such historical comparisons are valid and when they are not....
(30-Nov-07)
Mideast summit in Annapolis has feel of act of desperation:
No one appears to have any expectations whatsoever -- talking just to talk....
(27-Nov-07)
Hamas fires on civilian Palestinian crowd commemorating Yasser Arafat:
Eight people were killed when Hamas gunmen fired into the crowd....
(13-Nov-07)
Pressure is building in Israel for a new invasion of Gaza:
Surprisingly, many Palestinians are allying with Israel against Hamas....
(12-Sep-07)
Hamas' stunning Gaza victory shocks entire Mideast:
A major realignment of unknown proportions is occurring throughout the Mideast....
(22-Jun-07)
Abbas dissolves the Palestinian Authority as Hamas overpowers Fatah in Gaza:
There are now effectively two Palestinian Authorities,...
(15-Jun-07)
Hamas presses for control in Gaza, Fatah gets revenge in West Bank:
The U.N. is considering deployment of a multinational force in Gaza,...
(14-Jun-07)
Palestinian road to civil war escalates another step:
Gunfights escalated to larger military actions in northern Gaza...
(13-Jun-07)
Jordan's King Abdullah renews stark warnings about Palestinian problem:
Both Israelis and Palestinians are becoming increasingly furious at each other,...
(22-May-07)
Gaza close to state of emergency as Israel tries to avoid getting pulled in:
The streets of Gaza are clear except for gunmen today,...
(16-May-07)
Palestinian Interior Minister resigns as escalated Gaza violence threatens civil war:
Six people were killed and dozens wounded over the weekend...
(15-May-07)
Palestinian "unity government" leading soon to new crisis with Israel:
As the young generation of Palestinians become increasingly "lost and desperate,"...
(14-Mar-07)
Jordan's King Abdullah tells Congress that Palestinian issue is the core issue:
Unfortunately few in Congress know what he's talking about....
(8-Mar-07)
"Palestinians don't deserve a state":
Even the most optimistic Palestinians are despairing that their dream is slipping away....
(4-Feb-07)
Fatah storms Hamas stronghold in Gaza:
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas appears to be carrying out his ultimatum to Hamas,...
(1-Feb-07)
Palestinian civil war between Hamas and Fatah now seems inevitable:
Peace talks and ceasefires seem close to being over for good....
(29-Jan-07)
Palestinians' Fatah/Hamas crisis increases as Israeli government is close to anarchy:
The possibility of a Hamas vs Fatah civil war in the Palestinian territories appears to be increasing by the day....
(7-Jan-07)
In desperation gamble, Mahmoud Abbas calls for new Palestinian elections:
Hoping to end political deadlock and head off a Palestinian civil war,...
(16-Dec-06)
Will Mohammed Dahlan trigger a Palestinian civil war?:
Hamas blames the young Fatah terrorist for the near-assassination of Prime Minister Haniyeh....
(16-Dec-06)
Interviews with young Gazans spotlight road to war:
For these young fighters, attacking Israel is an end, rather than a means to a political end....
(10-Dec-06)
Can we "Flip Syria" and solve all the Mideast problems?:
Even by Washington standards, Wednesday was possibly the most bizarre day on record....
(7-Dec-06)
Jordan's King Abdullah warns of explosions in Palestine and Lebanon:
Abdullah repeatedly chided the ABC News interviewer Stephanopolous, who remained completely oblivious...
(26-Nov-06)
Level of loathing between Israelis and Palestinians increases:
According to an online correspondent with contacts in the Israeli government,...
(27-Sep-06)
Tony Blair commits the rest of his term to solving the Mideast problem:
Meanwhile, the Palestinians announce a unity government -- with a condition....
(12-Sep-06)
Israel re-occupies Gaza and abandons West Bank "convergence":
Lawlessness has gotten so bad in Gaza that even Hamas apologized...
(8-Sep-06)
Aftermath of Lebanese war: The winners and losers:
Everyone seemed to follow his generational archetype, as if hypnotized to do so....
(6-Sep-06)
Some random notes on the Mideast crisis:
First off, dislodging Hizbollah from the Israeli border is almost impossible....
(21-Jul-06)
Mideast war now centers around Hizbollah's Hassan Nasrallah:
Nasrallah splits the Arab world and draws international support for Israel...
(17-Jul-06)
The European Union is "extremely concerned" about Mideast tensions:
But guess what the EU politicians express "particular concern" about!...
(3-Jul-06)
Israeli armed forces mass on Gaza border after soldier's kidnapping:
Egyptian mediators are attempting to head off a "large scale military offensive"...
(26-Jun-06)
Tensions reaching the boiling point among Palestinians and Israelis:
So-called "pinpoint" Israeli missile strikes have killed several civilians, including children...
(21-Jun-06)
Ex-CIA chief James Woolsey says Gaza pullout was "Worst result possible":
Five bystanders, including a pregnant woman, were killed by Palestinian gunmen...
(5-Jun-06)
Hamas and Fatah armies gearing up for major confrontation in Gaza Strip:
Egypt and Lebanon are also being increasingly threatened by the escalating violence....
(23-May-06)
Palestinian Authority and Hamas deploy rival armies in Gaza:
In open defiance of PA president Mahmoud Abbas, Hamas mounted an illegal 3,000 man militia force...
(17-May-06)
Saudi and other Mideast stock markets appear to be crashing:
While Wall Street is rocketing toward a historic new high,...
(7-May-06)
International game of "chicken" leading to disaster in Gaza:
Mideast envoy James Wolfensohn quits in disgust with all participants in the so-called "peace process."...
(5-May-06)
Crunch time for Hamas, as American and European aid is cut off to Palestinians.:
Will they "cry uncle" and recognize Israel in exchange for financial aid?...
(10-Apr-06)
International political chaos grips Israel, Palestine, and everyone else, as Hamas takes over on Saturday:
No one, not even Hamas itself, has any idea what to do next, except to let events play out as they will....
(18-Feb-06)
Hamas victory and cartoon controversy significantly affect chances of Mideast war:
It's time to change to the world conflict risk graphic....
(10-Feb-06)
Hamas victory throws Mideast 'peace process' into disarray and turmoil:
What struck me most, seeing the cheering Hamas supporters on TV yesterday,...
(27-Jan-06)
Sudden generational shift puts Palestinian "Young Guard" threatening "Old Guard":
Younger generations in control in Palestine and Israel bring war closer....
(16-Dec-05)
Gaza violence spiking up as Israel launches "crushing response" to rocket attacks:
Hamas promised to stop attacking Israel from Gaza, to prevent spiraling out of control....
(26-Sep-05)
Gaza strip descending into further chaos and lawlessness following Israeli withdrawal:
Black market prices for weapons have been falling sharply in Gaza,...
(14-Sep-05)
With Israelis almost gone, Gaza is becoming increasingly violent and unstable:
Especially ominous is the planned intervention by Egypt as border guards....
(8-Sep-05)
Israel withdraws from Gaza amid hopes for peace and fears of instability:
Here's what you should watch for in the weeks ahead....
(16-Aug-05)
Ariel Sharon and Mahmoud Abbas meet as Mideast cease-fire unravels:
Like Britain vs France, Israel vs Palestinian Authority meetings are becoming increasingly confrontational....
(22-Jun-05)
Abbas is increasingly losing control of Gaza and the West Bank:
Palestinian militants are infuriated by Abbas' unilateral cancellation of parliamentary elections....
(6-Jun-05)
Some notes on current news in Darfur, Palestine and Ukraine:
It appears that the genocidal crisis war in Darfur, Sudan, may be ending....
(24-Jan-05)
NY Post: "Arafat Dead - And he won't be missed.":
I look at Arafat's life very, very differently....
(14-Nov-04)
Top Israeli aide says that Israel has abandoned the American-sponsored 'Road Map to Peace':
The plan to create a Palestinian state has effectively been scuttled...
(7-Oct-04)
Israel makes it official: The American-backed "road map to peace" is dead.:
In fact, Israel itself is in enormous turmoil today because of Ariel Sharon's disengagement plan....
(16-Sep-04)
A dramatic shift in Palestinian opinion, as Arafat retains control:
Major violence has not yet spread from Gaza to West Bank, but the question of whether things will "spiral out of control"...
(1-Aug-04)
Beheadings part of increasing conflict level throughout Mideast:
The level of conflict is increasing throughout the Mideast, from Gaza to Pakistan, from Saudi Arabia to Uzbekistan.
(23-Jun-2004)
"Mideast Roadmap" - Will it bring peace?: Generational Dynamics predicts something quite different for the Mideast. (01-May-03) | ||
The first major international prediction that I posted on this web site was on May 1, 2003, just as President Bush was advocating the new "Mideast Roadmap to Peace" that called for a Palestinian state alongside Israel: "Will Mideast roadmap bring peace?" In that article I wrote the following:
The new "Mideast Peace Roadmap" calls for a Palestinian state by 2005, side by side with Israel. It provides a series of steps for both sides to follow, mostly having to do with eliminating violence against both Palestinian and Israeli civilians. The plan was sponsored by the United States, Russia, the European Union, and the United Nations.
Unfortunately, the fault lines in the Mideast have never been resolved, and Generational Dynamics predicts that they can be resolved only by another crisis war. In fact, recent polling has shown the rise of a new "Young Guard" generation of militant Palestinians that will accept nothing less than the elimination of Israel.
The last crisis war in the Mideast occurred from 1936 to 1949. That war was indirectly caused by Nazi persecution of Jews in Europe. Because of Nazi persecution, European Jews flooded into Palestine in the 1930s. Hostilities between the Palestinians and the Jews began in 1936, and reached a climax in a major war in 1948-49 following the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The partitioning of Palestine has never been accepted by the Palestinians.
Throughout history, one can point to probably thousands of similar situations, where an artificial boundary is imposed between two peoples, and one or both sides oppose the boundary. Of those thousands of examples, you will probably find few or none that are resolved peacefully.
Generational Dynamics predicts that in such fault line situations, a new crisis war begins when the generation of kids that grew up during the last crisis war all retire or die, at approximately the same time. Growing up during a violent, bloody war turns them into risk-averse adults who guide society throughout their lifetimes, always looking for ways to compromise and contain problems. When they all retire or die, the society loses their collective wisdom, as the generation that grew up after the last crisis war takes charge of society. In the Mideast situation, this is happening today among both the Palestinians and the Israelis.
We are now in the early stages of replaying the extremely violent, bloody wars between the Jews and the Palestinians that took place between them from 1936 to 1949. So far the war has been little more than a series of skirmishes, as it was in the late 1930s. The full-fledged violent, bloody war is awaiting a generational change.
There's an incredible irony going on in the Mideast today, in that the leaders of two opposing sides are, respectively, Ariel Sharon and Yassir Arafat.
These two men hate each other, but they're the ones cooperating with each other (consciously or not) to prevent a major Mideast conflagration. Both of them remember the wars of the 1940s, and neither of them wants to see anything like that happen again. And it won't happen again, as long as both of these men are in charge.
The disappearance of these two men will be part of an overall generational change in the Mideast that will lead to a major conflagration within a few years. It's possible that the disappearance of Arafat alone will trigger a war, just as the election of Lincoln ignited the American Civil War. (It's currently American policy to get rid of Arafat. My response is this: Be careful what you wish for.)
Generational Dynamics predicts that a major new violent, bloody Mideast war must occur, sometime in the next ten years, depending upon when the generational change takes place. There are signs that the generational change is occurring now, and this means that the next bloody, violent Mideast crisis war will take place within 3 or 4 years. There is no "Mideast Peace Roadmap" that has any chance of stopping that."
Nobody else was saying anything like this in 2003, and I was called "crazy" by several people for suggesting it, especially my characterizations of Arafat and Sharon. And yet, except for the overly precise timing in the last paragraph, this is exactly what has happened since then.
When Yasser Arafat died in November 2004, everyone breathed a sigh of relief, because the terrorist leader, the only person preventing the adoption of the Roadmap to Peace, had died. With him gone, the two-state solution could move forward, finally.
The euphoria was reinforced in January 2005, when Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) took bold steps to advance the peace process, including the deployment of Palestinian Authority forces throughout Gaza to stop further attacks on Israel.
Israel and Ariel Sharon did their part by withdrawing from Gaza all Israeli settlements and forces. It was felt that this would bring a new era of peace and stability to Gaza.
However, Mahmoud Abbas immediately started losing control of Gaza, thanks to the increased popularity of Hamas, considered to be a terrorist group by the West.
The hope that the Israeli withdrawal would lead to peace were quickly dashed. By September, it was clear that, with the Israelis gone, Gaza was becoming increasingly violent and unstable.
Nobody had any idea what was going on, except those who read this web site. The only way to understand what's going on in Gaza is through a generational explanation -- and as I've said many times, generational explanations appear to be too abstract for these politicians, journalists, analysts and pundits to understand, because they can't seem to grasp even the simplest and most obvious of them.
It's very easy to understand what's going on in Gaza if you simply start from the fact that the Gaza strip is densely populated and the median age in the Gaza strip is 16 years old. Thus, the Gaza strip is run by a generation of children with guns and missiles and with almost no adult supervision.
To these children in the "Young Guard," Mahmoud Abbas and the "Old Guard" are antideluvian relics with no relevance. Hamas' leaders are two generations younger, but even they're too old for many of the Palestinian children running Gaza.
In December 2005, Hamas started winning municipal elections, ahead of the Fatah group headed by Abbas. The entire Mideast peace process was thrown into turmoil in January, 2006, when Hamas won control of the Palestinian parliament in free elections.
Meanwhile, Gaza violence continued to surge, so that former CIA director James Woolsey said that the Gaza pullout had the worst possible results:
Another blow to the peace process came in May, 2006, when Mideast envoy James Wolfensohn quit in disgust. Wolfensohn had been appointed by the "Quartet" of nations (the U.S., European Union, United Nations and Russia) that put forth the Mideast Roadmap to Peace in 2003 to aid the Jews and Palestinians in their negotiations. He did his best. He helped negotiate several agreements, and as former President of the World Bank, he used his formidable list of contacts to get investors to purchase dozens of greenhouses left behind by Israeli settlers, so that Palestinians could use them right away to get hard currency by growing food for exports.
Here's how one columnist described the situation:
Summer 2006 saw Israel's Lebanon war against Hizbollah. The Palestinians didn't participate in the war, but the level of violence in Gaza continued as before.
One of the few studies of the attitudes of young Gazans was done in December 2006, and it highlighted how young Gazans want war with Israel, or at least do not fear it.
For years, until the "surge" started working in mid-2007, the world has been so obsessed with Iraq that the Israeli/Palestinian situation was completely ignored. I complained about that many times on this web site.
There were a few exceptions. In September 2006, Tony Blair committed to solving the Mideast problem. In November, 2006, Jordan's King Abdullah, warned of a potential explosion in Palestine. He repeated his warnings to a joint session of Congress in March, but was treated with scorn by moronic journalists, analysts and politicians, almost all of whom have no idea what's going on in the world.
A civil war between Fatah and Hamas had been building for a number of months and, finally, in June of last year, Hamas defeated Fatah in Gaza, taking control of the entire Gaza strip.
Now, with the Iraq situation settling down, President Bush is committing to solve the Palestinian issue before he leaves office a year from now. I guess politicians have to do stuff like this, even though there isn't a snowflake's chance in hell of succeeding.
When I posted my original predictions on the Mideast on May 1, 2003, I had no way of knowing what was going to happen, and yet everything I predicted is trending true, especially the increasing chaos in the Mideast. I said that a "Young Guard" would arise and would make sure that no peace plan would ever be accepted. As time has passed, that prediction has only trended more and more true.
Since 2003 I've posted almost 900 articles on this web site, most containing specific predictions on subjects related to Darfur, Iraq, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, China, Japan, national and word finances, and so forth. The predictions have been based on Generational Dynamics theory. I've posted trend predictions, which are 100% certain within a (sometimes lengthy) indefinite window of time, and probabilistic predictions, which are usually 70-90% certain within a window of several months.
To date, ALL of the trend predictions are either true or are clearly trending true, and almost all of the probabilistic predictions have come true. None have been proven wrong. This last point is important, because it's easy to get a million predictions right -- just make two million predictions. I've succeeded in getting many predictions right with no predictions wrong.
For years I've been challenging everyone to find a journalist, analyst, pundit, politician or web site with a predictive record that comes anywhere close to the predictive success of this web site, and none has been found. Superstars like Paul Krugman are frequently wrong, but this web site is not.
So what's going to happen in the Mideast in the next year?
Among the Palestinians themselves, there is an enormous and increasing attraction to having a war with the Israelis. However, I've mentioned many times that I haven't seen the signs that it's near -- and by this I mean the kind of language that Israelis and Palestinians say about each other. You never hear mainstream Israelis say, "Those Palestinians are vermin"; they say, "Those Palestinians have to stop militants from sending rockets and missiles into Israeli territory." And you don't hear mainstream Palestinians say, "Those Israelis are disgusting worms"; they say, "Israelis have the end the apartheid that prevents Palestinians from traveling."
In other words, the Palestinians and Israelis still make only behavioral criticisms of one another, rather than hateful personal vilifications. The latter is absolutely essential, because without these personal vilifications, a war leader cannot motivate his people to make the sacrifices necessary to have a genocidal war. In fact, Fatah and Hamas factions have used hate-filled personal vilifications with each other more than with the Israelis.
This could change any day, however, and be triggered by some chaotic event (in the sense of Chaos Theory), an event that cannot be predicted. It might come about because some Israeli action suddenly infuriates the Palestinians. Or it might come about because of interference by Iran or by Egyptian militants in the Muslim Brotherhood.
But the original prediction from May 1, 2003, has not changed. The
Palestinian situation has been continually deteriorating into chaos
ever since Yasser Arafat died, and will continue to do so. In fact,
it's hard to find a day in the last three years where the situation
hasn't been worse than the preceding day.
(17-Jan-08)
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