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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Jan-08
Israeli blockade of Gaza triggers protests against Egypt

Web Log - January, 2008

Israeli blockade of Gaza triggers protests against Egypt

Angry Gazans stormed the Rafah crossing into Egypt on Tuesday, four days after Israel had imposed a total blockade on Gaza. The blockade was imposed in response to increases in rocket and missile attacks from Gaza on Israeli border towns.

Dozens of Palestinian protesters stormed the Rafah border crossing with Egypt, demanding that the frontier be opened to ease the blockade imposed on the territory by Israel. However, the protesters were almost all women, and so the protest may have been a public relations exercise.

The protestors chanted insults at Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak: "Hosni Mubarak you are a coward, you are an agent for the Americans. Gaza women will not be humiliated."

Gaza City was in total darkness, since there was no fuel for the electric power generators. Because of international concern over the blockade, Israel ordered an easing of the blockade on Tuesday. Apparently this easing triggered new attacks by Gaza militants, as Palestinian snipers targeted Israeli farmers near the border, and a new flurry of rockets was launched.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak hinted at an escalation against Gaza: "We must use more and more pressure on Gaza. "What is important is the safety of the residents of the western Negev and Sderot."

It appears that the level of anxiety, already high, is moving even higher among both the Israelis and the Gazans. The Gazans are increasingly anxious and angry about their plight, living in Gaza, which they call an "open air prison." The Israelis are getting increasingly anxious and angry about the rocket and missile attacks, which can only become deadlier as Gaza militants import more sophisticated parts.

For the time being, there's a great deal of frustration on both sides. There's no way for Israel to prevent rocket attacks -- certainly the blockade will not do so. And there's no way for the Palestinians to get the blockage lifted completely -- certain sending rockets will not do so.

It's like an argument between husband and wife where he's complaining about her mother, and she's complaining about money, when what they're really complaining about is sex, but neither wants to mention it.

Still, the fact that the most we saw in terms of mob action was a protest by women at the Rafah gate indicates to me that the war between Jews and Arabs is not yet imminent. This may be the case simply because Gazan rockets and Israeli blockades are affecting the quality of life, but so far are not causing any substantial harm to either side.

The demonstrations against Egypt are an interesting development, however. These demonstrations may embolden militants in the Egyptian terrorist group Muslim Brotherhood, a group that might be called Hamas's cousin. If Egypt becomes destablized, either because of Muslim Brotherhood or because of the approaching worldwide financial crisis, that could be the trigger that starts the war.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a new war between Arabs and Jews is an absolute certainty, refighting the bloody war of 1949 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. This war could begin next week, next month or next year, and the exact scenario cannot be predicted, but the end result is certain. (22-Jan-08) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Jan-08 Israeli blockade of Gaza triggers protests against Egypt

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Jan-08
Israeli blockade of Gaza triggers protests against Egypt