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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Jan-08
Bird flu spreading rapidly through birds in West Bengal in eastern India

Web Log - January, 2008

Bird flu spreading rapidly through birds in West Bengal in eastern India

Over 2300 people have complained about symptoms of fever in the last 5 days.

However, the West Bengal state government says that there has been no case of H5N1 bird flu virus affecting humans.

The problem is that West Bengal does not have the required infrastructure to make that determination, according to officials in Delhi. "The West Bengal Government is failing to understand the gravity of the situation," said Union Minister of State for Health and Family Welfare P Lakshmi.

What is NOT in doubt is that the deadly H5N1 virus is spreading rapidly from district to district in West Bengal.

Less than 200,000 thousand birds in the infected areas have been culled (killed) so far, and West Bengal has has appealed to other states to help cull 2 million birds.

There's great fear that the virus has already spread to the city of Calcutta, with five million people. Portions of border with Bangladesh have been closed in an attempt to prevent spread to that country, though it may already be too late.

Iconoclastic flu researcher Dr. Henry Niman has said on his Recombinomics web site that the official figures released by West Bengal indicate that testing has been so limited that there's no way to know what's going on:

"The mortality numbers increased 5,915 over the prior report, but the number of samples received is withheld. Yesterday’s report showed that only 22 samples were received, even though almost 10,000 birds died.

Some media reports have indicated North 24 Parganas was the eighth West Bengal district to test positive for H5N1, but the comments above again indicates that both North 24 and South 24 are negative, although both districts have reported large increases in dead poultry.

The continued reporting of negative data on a minimal number of samples from districts with increasing numbers of dead poultry raises pandemic concerns. These concerns regarding testing of poultry also applies to human samples, which have never produced a confirmed positive."

According to Niman, this is the kind of carelessness that can lead to a mutation that will result in a human pandemic.

It was two seasons ago that bird flu spread like wildfire across Asia, into the Europe, the Mideast and Africa. It was expected that it would soon spread to North America via the Atlantic flyways, but miraculously that apparently hasn't happened.

We're now approaching, once again, the most dangerous time of the year for a possible human pandemic. That's because the Chinese New Year and Vietnamese lunar new year (Tet) celebrations are approaching. At these times, many people are travelling, and huge amounts of poultry are transported, slaughtered, and consumed.

Bird flu virus mutation is basically a numbers game. A human to human transmissible virus will be formed when somebody simultaneously gets the ordinary human flu and the pathogenic H5N1 bird flu at the same time. At that time, the genes from the two forms of the virus can recombine to form an H5N1 virus that can move easily from human to human.

What makes this most dangerous time of the year is that there are far greater numbers of recombination opportunities that could make a pandemic possible. That's true not only because of the Chinese and Vietnamese celebrations, but also because of the rapid spread of the virus throughout West Bengal, and possibly into Bangladesh.

As I always have in the past, I once again remind the reader that it's impossible to predict when a particular mutation will permit easy human-to-human transmission, which would result in a worldwide pandemic. This could happen next week, next month, next year, or thereafter.

Once again, as I always say, you and your family should prepare immediately for a possible pandemic. If human to human transmission became public next week on Monday, then by Tuesday all the shelves in grocery stores would be bare. If you stock up on food now, then you'll be sure to have what you need. Even if you think that you can beat the crowds to the grocery store, you should still stock up in advance. If you get your canned food after the panic begins, then you're depriving somebody else of food. But if you stock up in advance, then the shelves will be restocked, and you won't deprive someone else of food.

I once again strongly urge my readers to prepare for an H5N1 pandemic or for any kind of emergency (think of hurricane Katrina) by stocking up on food and water and currency and batteries for the entire household to live on for 2-3 months. This may cost a thousand dollars per person, but it's not wasted money since you can always eat the food later if no emergency occurs. Get canned or dried food that can last a long time in storage, and get a large container for storing water. Keep in mind that stored water becomes impure with time, so you'll also need some purifying tablets or bleach to kill bacteria in the water when the time comes. Finally, get whatever medicines you'll need to take care of yourself and your family for a long period of time. (23-Jan-08) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Jan-08 Bird flu spreading rapidly through birds in West Bengal in eastern India

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Jan-08
Bird flu spreading rapidly through birds in West Bengal in eastern India