	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Feb-08
An invitation to contribute to this web site

Web Log - February, 2008

An invitation to contribute to this web site

If you "get" this web site, and would like to write an article for it, then please send me a message with your ideas or an outline.

This could be a one-time thing, or if things work out you could contribute something every day.

This web site now has over 5000 regular readers, and I'd like to expand the content if possible.

I've been kicking around what the "rules," if any, would be for other contributors to this web site. Basically I'm open to anything, but the following thoughts apply:

Prime Directive: Your contributions should make the web site and Generational Dynamics look good. Save your "Xenakis is a psychopath" screed for your own blog.

I'd particularly like views from "different places": other countries, other occupations, other generations, other genders, other centuries. Does anyone on Mars read this web site?

An article may discuss a specific disagreement with a specific theoretical or practical aspect of Generational Dynamics, if that subject is of interest, but as a general rule, your use of generational theory should agree with the theory as already presented here. It's VERY IMPORTANT to avoid confusing the reader.

Probably the most important aspect of the preceding paragraph is this: It's a fundamental principle of generational theory that it provides no guide whatsoever to politics: It doesn't tell you who's going to win the election, and even tells you that it makes no difference who wins the election. Why you love Bush or hate Bush is utterly, totally irrelevant to what's coming. Nothing that Bush or his successor does or does not do, says or does not say, has any PREDICTABLE effect on the great events to come.

Criticisms of religions or ethnic groups or countries (including America) may be OK, PROVIDED THAT they're done dispassionately. This is a tricky business, and will be judged carefully. It's OK to criticize Islamist terrorists, but not Muslims. If you criticize Islam, you'd better also criticize Christianity or Judaism in a similar manner designed to enlighten people about the fundamental differences. I am the final, unappealable judge of what "hate speech" is, and it will be rejected.

I will review and possibly edit any contribution prior to posting.

On the other hand, if you're a free spirit who just wants to talk about life, in the framework of generations, then that should be fine. As I said, I'm open to anything, subject to a few concerns that I'm listing here.

What are some of the topics that you might want to write about?

Here are some examples:

How the generational attitudes in your country differ from those in America and other Western countries.

"How to survive the coming depression."

Social and gender issues: How are we "returning to the 1950s"?

Is your country close to war or close to some other huge change?

What's the future of the Mideast? Of Pakistan? Of China?

I always say, "Treasure the time you have left, and use it to prepare yourself, your family, your community, or your nation." How do you prepare your community and your nation?

Interesting stories by or about people who remember the 1929 crash, the Great Depression, World War II, and the 1950s. How is life different now?

A generational analysis of some country or some current or historical event.

How can generational theory make polls and polling more accurate and relevant?

How the Boomers did or didn't change America.

For Gen-Xers, what's it been like living in the shadow of Boomers?

For Millennials, the next "greatest generation," what's your view of your future?

How have music, fashion and the arts evolved since WW II, as generations change?

How have religions -- Islam, Christianity, Judaism, Buddhism, Hinduism, Taoism, etc. -- evolved since WW II?

The above list is mostly America-centric, but similar contributions from the point of view of other countries would be particularly welcome.

Most articles on this web site contain predictions. Some predictions are absolutely certain trend predictions, and some are probabilistic predictions that depend on chaotic events.

Try to make your article relevant to the reader by telling how what you're describing will affect him, or how it will affect the world.

For convenience, here's a brief list of the major predictions that have appeared on this web site since 2003, and the year of first appearance:

Macro economy (2003): Deflation, rather than inflation, would dominate, and prices would fall by about 30% by 2010.

Macro economy (2003): We're entering a new 1930s style Great Depression, and the stock market will fall to Dow 4000 or lower.

Palestine/Israel (2003): The "Roadmap to Peace" would fail. Once Yasser Arafat disappeared, the region would descend into chaos, leading to a new genocidal war between Jews and Arabs.

Iraq (2003): There would be no civil war and no anti-American uprising.

Iran (2003): Pro-American and pro-Western student demonstrations (like America in the 60s) would continue

America (2003): Unlike the 60s, there would be almost no student antiwar demonstrations, and any that start would fizzle quickly.

America (2004): Men and women would return to stereotypical gender roles, with women focused increasingly on the children.

America (2004): Politicians will resort to bitter fighting, and become less and less able to get anything done.

Darfur (2004): The UN would be completely irrelevant, and would have no effect on the Darfur conflict. It will continue until it's run its course.

China (2004): China is headed for a major internal civil war, as well as a war with the U.S. over Taiwan with absolute certainty.

Lebanon (2005): Despite widespread fear following many assassinations, there will be NO new civil war in Lebanon.

Lebanon (2006, as war began): Israel would fight an aggressive "existential war," while Hizbollah would fight half-heartedly.

Burma / Myanmar (2007): The new burst of violence would fizzle soon, and would not spiral into a civil war.

Kenya (2008): The new burst of violence is UNLIKELY to spiral into war right away, although a major civil war is almost certain within ten years.

Europe (2004): The proposed Constitution would NOT be approved. There will be a new European war, one component of which will probably be France versus Britain.

World (2003): A new "Clash of Civilizations" world war.

Anyone interested is invited to write to me with suggestions, questions, or actual articles.

If you have a "hot topic," but don't think it's relevant to generational theory, ask me and perhaps I can suggest a way of angling it. (13-Feb-08) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Feb-08 An invitation to contribute to this web site

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Feb-08
An invitation to contribute to this web site