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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Feb-08
Turkey invades PKK Kurd region of northern Iraq

Web Log - February, 2008

Turkey invades PKK Kurd region of northern Iraq

Iraq is unfazed, and al-Sadr extends his cease-fire for six months.

Reportedly 10,000 Turkish troops crossed into Iraq on Thursday to destroy rebel Kurdish (PKK) bases in the extremely rugged mountainous region of northern Iraq.

The Turks say that it's a "limited operation," and that the troops will return to Turkey in the "shortest time possible."

According to security sources in Turkey:

"The ground operation started after Turkish warplanes and artillery bombed suspected PKK targets on Thursday, the military said on its Web site. The operation is expected to last 15 days, CNN Turk reported, citing security sources.

TV channels and news agencies reported 10,000 troops were taking part in the cross-border offensive and the Turkish troops entered 10 km inside the Iraqi border. But CNN Turk reported 3,000 troops from special forces take part in the operation, citing security sources. Reports say the operation focused on the Hakurk region of northern Iraq.

The operation is expected to last 15 days, CNN Turk reported, citing security sources. ...

[In related news], Turkish President Abdullah Gul called Iraqi President Jalal Talabani on the phone on Thursday and informed him about the cross-border ground operation launched by Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) against terrorist organization (in the north of Iraq). Presidency press center stated on Friday that Gul briefed Talabani about the target of ground operation which TSK initiated on Thursday."

As usual, when analyzing a situation like this, it's necessary to sort out the individual generational timelines of each of the countries involved.

Turkey is well into a generational Crisis era, and so this situation could be dangerous if Turkey's military involvement spirals out of control.

However, Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, as we've said a zillion times on this web site to explain why a civil war in Iraq was and is impossible. Thus, Iraq is UNLIKELY to mount a military response to Turkey's invasion, which means that the situation as a whole is unlikely to spiral out of control.

The most likely outcome from this incursion is that, at some point, Turkey will complete its operations in the northern Iraq mountains, and then withdraw, succumbing to mounting international pressure. This scenario could be thwarted if the effort to clear out the PKK terrorists ends up in a "Vietnam-like quagmire," but even then a spiraling war seems unlikely.

As if to emphasize the fact that Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, the Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has extended his Mahdi militia's ceasefire for another six months. His previous ceasefire was set to expire, but in a statement Friday addressed to his own Mahdi army militia fighters, he says the following:

"I am only ordering the good and eliminating evil. If you are the same then I am with you and among you ... I established this army of faith only so that it would be as the sinless (the Shiite imams) would want. And that is difficult. So anyone who sees in himself the endurance, the will, the strength, the ability, the authorization, the activeness ... then let him ask for what follows, implement it and believe in it.

Whoever applies this is truly in the (Mahdi) Army and is among those who will bring victory for the Imam (Mahdi) after his appearance, God willing. So I will give you another opportunity to gain wholeness, just as I have given it to myself before you. So I extend the freezing of the Mahdi Army until the 15th of Shaaban (mid-August.) You have my thanks and appreciation for your understanding and your patience, as well as your holy struggle and your continuing to rebel against infidels and your love of faith, the believers, Islam, Muslims, Iraqis and Iraq.

In conclusion, I say: God ... make the members of the Mahdi Army the best followers of the prophets ... make them satisfactory to you ... make them the best of believers."

I discussed the coming of the Mahdi two years ago in "Iran and Ahmadinejad are waiting for the Mahdi," something that's roughly equivalent to waiting for the second coming of Christ in the Christian religion.

Al-Sadr is thus tying belief in the Mahdi to his statement to his militia to extend the ceasefire in the war against the infidels (the Sunnis and the Americans).

This hints at the kind of "generation gap" that he's dealing with: His young warriors want to fight the infidels, but the warriors' parents, who survived the bloody and genocidal Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, don't want any part of a new war. (23-Feb-08) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Feb-08 Turkey invades PKK Kurd region of northern Iraq

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Feb-08
Turkey invades PKK Kurd region of northern Iraq