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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Feb-08
Anti-western violence grows in Serbia over Kosovo independence

Web Log - February, 2008

Anti-western violence grows in Serbia over Kosovo independence

Russia hints at using force on the side of Serbia.

A couple of days ago, I commented on the secession of Kosovo from Serbia as something that would certainly not bring peace to the region.

Now violence has been breaking out in Serbia, demonstrating against Kosovo's independence. The American embassy in Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, was attacked and burned by a mob on Thursday, in protest of the US recognition of Kosovo's independence.

There have been massive demonstrations in the city of Mitrovica, a city that's now in Kosovo, but has a very large Serbian population.

Analysts have expressed concern that the violence will spiral out of control spontaneously into a new Balkans war. This is, of course, completely impossible: This region just had a crisis war in the 1990s, and is now in a generational Recovery era (also called a High or Austerity era). So a major war of this type is completely impossible.

But it's well to review some of the thoughts that are going through people's minds.

It was June 28, 1914, that terrorists from Belgrade assassinated Austrian Archduke Francis Ferdinand, triggering the Great War and the massive slaughter of tens of millions of people. Germany got pulled into the war against its will, because of mutual defense treaty with Austria; it fought half-heartedly, and was forced to capitulate mainly because of political protests in Berlin. France got pulled in because it was allied with Russia and was attacked by Germany. America got pulled in because of an alliance with the UK. This was a non-crisis war for all of these countries.

This was a real crisis war for Russia and Turkey (the Ottoman Empire), the two main representatives of the Orthodox and Muslim civilizations at the time, and was the continuation of their long-held mutual genocidal hatred. The war led to the destruction of both countries, as Russia's Bolshevik Revolution ended six centuries of Tsarist rule, and the destruction of the Ottoman Empire ended six centuries of Muslim unity and a caliphate in Istanbul.

Now let's move back to today. The Balkan states have already had their next crisis war, in the 1990s, about 70 years after the end of World I. Russia and Turkey have not. They are both deep in a generational Crisis era. They are both increasingly xenophobic. Old religious practices are reasserting themselves, as the Kremlin is getting closer to the Russian Orthodox Church, and Islamists have replaced secular politicians in the Turkish government.

New violence in the Balkans is bound to fizzle out if it's allowed to. That's most definitely not the biggest danger now.

The biggest danger now is that Russia (which identifies with Orthodox Serbia) or Turkey (which identifies with Muslim Kosovo) may decide to intervene. A confrontation between Russia and Turkey in the Balkans could quickly spread into a confrontation surrounding the Black Sea.

The following map highlights the Black Sea region, and the three traditional battle regions -- the Balkans, the Crimea and the Caucasus -- where the Orthodox and the Muslims have had their crisis wars:

Black Sea region, highlighting the Balkans, the Crimea and the Caucasus

Black Sea region, highlighting the Balkans, the Crimea and the Caucasus

That's why the most ominous portion of the Serb / Kosovo story is the following:

"Also Friday, Russia -- which has not recognized Kosovo's sovereignty -- said it has not ruled out using force to resolve the dispute over the territory if NATO forces breach the terms of their U.N. mandate.

"If the EU works out a single position or if NATO steps beyond its mandate in Kosovo, these organizations will be in conflict with the U.N., and then I think we will also begin operating under the assumption that in order to be respected, one needs to use force," Moscow's ambassador to NATO Dmitry Rogozin said, in comments carried by Russia's Interfax news agency."

Exactly what kind of force was not specified, but that's the real danger in what's going on today in Serbia and the newly independent Kosovo. (23-Feb-08) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Feb-08 Anti-western violence grows in Serbia over Kosovo independence

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Feb-08
Anti-western violence grows in Serbia over Kosovo independence