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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Mar-08
Malaysia government in crisis after 'Sons of the Soil' turn against their leader

Web Log - March, 2008

Malaysia government in crisis after 'Sons of the Soil' turn against their leader

Malaysia's stock market fell 10% on Monday on panic selling, reacting to the stunning strength shown by opposition parties in Saturday's elections.

Following 1969's ethnic violence involving Malaysia's three main ethnic groups -- the indigenous Muslim Malays, the Chinese, and the mostly Hindu Tamil Indians -- Malaysians got behind a single party, the National Front Coalition Party (also called Barisan Nasional or BN) that has won a 2/3 majority of the seats in Parliament in every election since then -- until Saturday's election.

Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who has been Prime Minister since 2003, still theoretically holds enough seats to remain in power, but there is growing pressure on him to step down. If he does, then the future of his development projects is also in doubt. This fear caused foreign investors to pull out of Malaysian markets, leading to the panic selling.

Abdullah's Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition won a landslide victory in 2004, winning 199 of 219 seats -- a 91% majority. That election was characterized by the same kind of euphoria we saw in America following the 2006 Democratic party congressional victory, and that we're seeing now over Barack Obama. This kind of euphoria is a kind of generational manic-depressive disorder, and when the manic hopes aren't realized, there's often an angry reaction from the public, as happened in January, 2007.

In Abdullah's case, the economic gains that he promised in 2004 simply have not been realized. Abdullah himself is Malay, the indigenous ethnic group making up 60% of the population. It was considered important for him to win at least 67% of the seats because (a) the BN has won at least that much in every election since the 1969 race riots, and (b) it was necessary to prove that Abdullah was being supported by all three major ethnic groups, not just the Malays alone.

Instead, Abdullah got about 51% on Saturday, indicating that even the Malays are abandoning him, blaming him for the economy's poor performance since 2004.

Let's look at a brief history of Malaysia, and start with a current map:

Malaysia

Malaysia

Different portions of Southeast Asia have been colonies of the Portuguese, the Dutch the Spanish and the British since the 1600s, but by the 1900s, Malaya (as it was then known) became a British protectorate. Malaya's last crisis war was WW II, when the Japanese attacked and defeated the British in Malaya and Singapore, occupying them until the end of the war.

Malaysia is in two parts: The Peninsular portion, extending down from Thailand, and the Borneo territories, on the northern part of the island of Borneo, with Indonesia occupying the southern portion. The capital city is Kuala Lumpur.

Singapore, the island city-state at the southern point of the Peninsula, was once part of Malaysia, but was expelled in 1965 because of agitation by its majority Chinese population.

As you look at the above map, note the "South China Sea" label. That entire region, and all the islands therein, are being claimed by Beijing as territory belonging to China, as we discussed in "China continues massive military expansion / announces 18% budget increases."

The history of the three major ethnic groups is as follows:

The indigenous Malays (61%) are Muslims and are referred to as Bhumiputra or "Bhumis," which means "Sons of the Soil." After the massive race riots of 1969, which were largely fought between the wealthy Chinese and the poverty-stricken Malays, the Malays were given "affirmative action" benefits in the areas of education, housing and job preferences. These benefits are being challenged today by other groups, especially the Indians.

The Chinese (24%) today are a wealthy market-dominant minority, mostly the descendants of rich merchants who came to Malaya in the early 1900s. During the World War II occupation, the Japanese treated their war enemy, the Chinese, with appalling brutality, and presented themselves as respectful of Islam and of Malay culture.

After the war, the Chinese reasserted themselves as Communist terrorists, linked to Mao Zedong's Chinese Communist Party (CCP) that had just taken control of mainland China. The violence resulted in a state of emergency (known as "The Emergency"). As is typical in a generational Recovery era, following a crisis war, the violence fizzled out, compromises were reached, and the independent Federation of Malaya was created in 1957.

The Indians (7%) are mostly Hindu Tamils. They mostly came to Malaya in the early 1900s from the Tamil Nadu region, the southern province of India. They originally came to be plantation workers, and today their descendants are balking at the "Sons of the Soil" advantages provided to Malays.

K. Krishna, Malaysian -- ethnically Indian, opposition supporter (Source: BBC)

Here's the attitude of K. Krishna, a 32 year old Indian born and raised in Malaysia, claiming that the government has discriminated against her for in favor of the Bhumiputra:

"We are born here. Our parents were born here. Our grandparents were born here. Why are we not "Bhumis" here?
All the ethnic groups fought for independence -- Malay, Chinese, Indian -- all three of them fought for it.
There's agreement there must be equality for the three of us. Why are they denying us?"

The Federation of Malaya was formed in 1948, at the beginning of "The Emergency," and became independent of Britain in 1957, and included Singapore. It became Malaysia in 1961. According to one account:

"The new nation was a delicate exercise in ethnic arithmetic. The non-Chinese majorities of the Borneo states helped balance the inclusion of the predominantly Chinese Singapore, but Singapore entered Malaysia with many constitutional, political and administrative issues left unresolved. Tensions escalated and in August 1965 [leaders of Malaysia and Singapore] signed a separation agreement."

Other accounts refer to race riots in Singapore in 1964, resulting in the latter's expulsion from Malaysia.

The race riots of 1969 were a major turning point. Elections were held on May 10, 1969, and political parties were along ethnic lines. The pro-Communist Chinese Democratic Action Party (DAP) did very well opposing the pro-Malay United Malays National Organisation (UMNO). Thousands of Chinese held a victory parade in Kuala Lumpur, taunting the Malays. This triggered a wave of violence on May 13, there and in other regions as well, with hundreds of deaths.

Generational analysis. Superficially, this story seems almost identical to the story of the recent ethnic violence in Kenya. The representative of the market-dominant Kikuyu tribe won the December 30 Presidential election, and the disadvantaged Luo tribe reacted violently to Kikuyu victory celebrations.
The big difference is that these two events occurred at very different points on the generational timeline. The Kenya incident occurred at the end of a generational Unraveling area, 52 years after the end of the previous crisis war. At that point, ethnic violence is UNLIKELY to spiral into genocidal violence, but is certain to do so within a few years, as the country approaches a generational Crisis era.
The 1969 Malaysia incident occurred in the midst of a generational Awakening era. These riots are best compared to America's race riots during the "long hot summers" of the late 1960s. A spiral into genocidal violence at this time is literally impossible, but there are always major political implications.
Today, Malaysia is well into a generational Crisis era, and new ethnic violence could well spiral into a full-scale civil war.

The 1969 race riots did indeed have major political implications: the National Front Coalition Party (or Barisan Nasional or BN) was formed to represent ALL ethnic groups. And a New Economic Policy (NEP) was instituted. This was a kind of "affirmative action" program put into place for the indigenous Malay groups, giving them preferences for education, jobs and housing, as described above. (Similarly, America's 1960s race riots led to "affirmative action" programs for blacks.)

Just as "affirmative action" programs in America are meeting greater political resistance today, as America enters a Crisis era, the same thing is happening in Malaysia, as minority ethnic groups object to the preferences given to Malays. The "multidiversity" trends of the Awakening era are abandoned as survival becomes the driving issue, causing ethnic groups to reassert themselves.

The hardline Pan-Malayan Islamic Party (PAS) won in four northern Peninsular provinces, adjoining Thailand. We've met PAS before, when we were discussing Islamist terrorism in southern Thailand. Southern Thailand once was part of Malaya, and its people are Muslim Malays. Thus, the Malays in Thailand are thought to be linking up with PAS in Malayasia, and also with the terrorist group Jemaah Islamiyah in Indonesia.

Malaysia provinces

Jemaah Islamiyah is responsible for several major terrorist attacks in Indonesia, including the massive night club bombing in Bali. Jemaah Islamiyah is led by Malaysians Azahari Husin and Noordin Mohamed Top, the two most wanted men in Asia.

The Chinese and left-leaning Democratic Action Party (DAP) has had a strong pro-Communist history and strong links to Beijing since Chinese violence of the 1950s "Emergency" described earlier. DAP won in the province of Penang, which has a majority of Chinese voters.

The biggest losers in the election may have been the Indians, who have virtually no Parliamentary representation after the election.

The pro-Malay PAS and the pro-Chinese DAP parties cooperated with one another in opposition to Abdullah's National Front Coalition Party. These two ethnic groups have been enemies in the past, and it remains to be seen how long this alliance will last.

The Saturday elections are being described as a "political tsunami," recalling the real tsunami that struck Southeast Asia in 2005. The 1969 race riots fizzled fairly quickly, since Malaysia was in a generational Awakening era; if race riots begin today, then they may very well spiral out of control. So far, however, everyone is behaving, and there are no major signs of violence. A lot will depend on whether the euphoria of Saturday's election turns to anger and vengeance and, if so, where the desire for vengeance is directed. (11-Mar-08) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Mar-08 Malaysia government in crisis after 'Sons of the Soil' turn against their leader

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Mar-08
Malaysia government in crisis after 'Sons of the Soil' turn against their leader